06z model discussions

[pureasthedriven]

I know the next 60-odd hours is exciting, but is anyone looking at the rather nice potential of FI? For instance take a look at this little fellow:

I don't recall ever seeing the PFJ that far south beneath us

Never mind south of the UK, how about south of Spain! As you say, hard to believe but that has Omega block written all over it.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Here I go again....this month will rock the foundations of the even larger teapot theory that we cannot get prolonged cold or widespread snow and AGW has thwarted that. This week alone will scupper that.

After a wobble yesterday the charts ARE getting to grips with the evolution. There will be a 'less cold' interlude for the south but it won't last long as a more organised and prolonged easterly digs in mid month, say 15-20 . I have sometimes been downbeat and was surprised at Jan a bit but we have finally arrived at our destination...an 80s style setup...yum yum. As RJS stated in his winter LRF that HP would extend from Scandinavia through Iceland and into Greenland during Feb with LPs running at latitude 49 deg [absolutely spot on] and will produce some very interesting battles...voila.

There is some seriously cold pooling in Scandinavia with temps well in excess of -30c being recorded and HP will be 'encouraged' to build/strengthen over Scandi [expect the AO to go through the floor]. If/when the easterly digs in I think the air will be cold enough to prevent too much modification by the North Sea. But that is FI. Cracking 06z I must say

BFTP

Edited February 6, 2007 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[nick sussex]

UPGRADE ALERT!!!

Even better news for snow prospects for thursday. The latest ukmo 06hrs run looks to split the feature into two separate cells,likely to slow its movement ne wards and give some lucky people an even longer period of snow!

Heres the 06hrs 48hr ukmo

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ukmtc2.cgi?...&hour=048hr

And the 54hr chart for upto the same time from the 00hrs run

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ukmtc2.cgi?...&hour=054hr

The ukmo run this model as an addition to their normal 144hrs run for 06hrs and 18hrs but only upto 48hrs, also note on the latest data the better upstream pattern. This is really good news as its a big improvement on events upstream and lets hope this is a sign for tonights runs.

[summer blizzard]

UPGRADE ALERT!!!

Even better news for snow prospects for thursday. The latest ukmo 06hrs run looks to split the feature into two separate cells,likely to slow its movement ne wards and give some lucky people an even longer period of snow!

Heres the 06hrs 48hr ukmo

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ukmtc2.cgi?...&hour=048hr

And the 54hr chart for upto the same time from the 00hrs run

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ukmtc2.cgi?...&hour=054hr

The ukmo run this model as an addition to their normal 144hrs run for 06hrs and 18hrs but only upto 48hrs, also note on the latest data the better upstream pattern. This is really good news as its a big improvement on events upstream and lets hope this is a sign for tonights runs.

Yes, this is very good news, the low behind the first one would most likely try to move underneath the first low causing the first low to stall and also turn the winds more easterly/north easterly to the north of the lows centre.

[nick sussex]

Yes, this is very good news, the low behind the first one would most likely try to move underneath the first low causing the first low to stall and also turn the winds more easterly/north easterly to the north of the lows centre.

This just shows how ever changing the current model output is, I can hardly keep up with it all, but that 48hrs chart is much better for our longer term prospects. The PV is better positioned and its associated low, even though I'm not really favoured on thursday unless the low is further south I don't care, I just want to see a longer colder spell and no return to that pesky atlantic. Good luck to everyone for their snow some locations could be very lucky indeed if that front slows even further.

[summer blizzard]

Could somebody tell me how intense this precipitation is expected to be please??????? (going by the Met Office radar - light=blue, green=moderate and red=intense)

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_...t_warnings.html

Severe weather warning now issued by the Met Office!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[Yeti]

Could somebody tell me how intense this precipitation is expected to be please??????? (going by the Met Office radar - light=blue, green=moderate and red=intense)

Red - intense almost certainly.

However what is the latest on the N'ern extent? I am wary of the lows being literally 100 miles too far south at the moment, although the gfs 6z is an improvement on the 00z. I just hope the 12z follows yesterday's setup, bringing the lows further N.

I am also aware of the situation on Saturday, where the low looks more promising in terms of getting further N. The marginality of it is on a knife-edge at the moment however.

[Turnedoutniceagain]

Could somebody tell me how intense this precipitation is expected to be please??????? (going by the Met Office radar - light=blue, green=moderate and red=intense)

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_...t_warnings.html

Severe weather warning now issued by the Met Office!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Heavy snow ? 10-15cm !!

Eeee when I were a lad that were nowt but a heavy frost

[The Eagle]

UPGRADE ALERT!!!

Even better news for snow prospects for thursday. The latest ukmo 06hrs run looks to split the feature into two separate cells,likely to slow its movement ne wards and give some lucky people an even longer period of snow!

Heres the 06hrs 48hr ukmo

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ukmtc2.cgi?...&hour=048hr

And the 54hr chart for upto the same time from the 00hrs run

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ukmtc2.cgi?...&hour=054hr

The ukmo run this model as an addition to their normal 144hrs run for 06hrs and 18hrs but only upto 48hrs, also note on the latest data the better upstream pattern. This is really good news as its a big improvement on events upstream and lets hope this is a sign for tonights runs.

Thanks for that Nick

Not only is that an upgrade for England and Wales, its an upgrade for us too. Excellent stuff

[karyo]

More good news! The Met office released their winter update for the remaining winter. It talks about further cold spells and snowfall. This is in accordance with what some models show (inc. the 6z gfs) i.e. northern blocking!

Karyo

Please comment here:

http://www.netweather.tv/forum/index.php?s...mp;#entry912784

Edited February 6, 2007 by shuggee
To pop in the link to the correct forum area :-)

[Just Below Zero]

This just shows how ever changing the current model output is, I can hardly keep up with it all, but that 48hrs chart is much better for our longer term prospects. The PV is better positioned and its associated low, even though I'm not really favoured on thursday unless the low is further south I don't care, I just want to see a longer colder spell and no return to that pesky atlantic. Good luck to everyone for their snow some locations could be very lucky indeed if that front slows even further.

Nick you sound as if you are just going out and you may be sometime!!

Hoefully not committing modelcide

[Turnedoutniceagain]

More good news! The Met office released their winter update for the remaining winter. It talks about further cold spells and snowfall. This is in accordance with what some models show (inc. the 6z gfs) i.e. northern blocking!

Karyo

This is all too much, I need a stiff drink & a lie-down.

I must say, this tallies well with a few of the members' LRFs. RJS in particular I believe. Good work fellas !!

[smhouston]

Where's WIB? I haven't seen any input from him for a while on the models

The models are fascinating at the minute. It just goes to show how bad the models are when faced with a cold scenario

Edited February 6, 2007 by smhouston

[nick sussex]

Nick you sound as if you are just going out and you may be sometime!!

Hoefully not committing modelcide

I feel exhausted with all this model drama! but i'd rather have this drama than the flatlining boredom of crap atlantic mild muDoh a dumb swear filter got the better of me the 48hrs is much better even though its not as good for me down here but I'm just happy to see the longer term prospects improve. I've been lucky already here in January with my best snowfall since moving down here, so i'm not greedy and hope that theres no downgrades at this stage, to be honest I'm quite happy with sunshine and frost, snow is a bonus in the uk.

Its a positive that the feature has split into two cells and should prolong any snow for those lucky locations. Of course as the model output is ever changing lets hope it keeps this at least and gives a good snowfall to as many locations as possible.

[Michael Winston]

Where's WIB? I haven't seen any input from him for a while on the models

I think he said he's starting a new job this week, hence the lack of posts?

Good luck WIBs.

Regards,

Mike.

Edited February 6, 2007 by Winston

[CLOUD NINE]

Off topic I know, but Nick, after all your continued hard work watching awful models getting worse all winter, for once its a pleasure to see you soo happy, I take my hat off to you for perserverence, and hope you get some of this snow aswell, Cheers

I feel exhausted with all this model drama! but i'd rather have this drama than the flatlining boredom of crap atlantic mild muDoh a dumb swear filter got the better of me the 48hrs is much better even though its not as good for me down here but I'm just happy to see the longer term prospects improve. I've been lucky already here in January with my best snowfall since moving down here, so i'm not greedy and hope that theres no downgrades at this stage, to be honest I'm quite happy with sunshine and frost, snow is a bonus in the uk.

Its a positive that the feature has split into two cells and should prolong any snow for those lucky locations. Of course as the model output is ever changing lets hope it keeps this at least and gives a good snowfall to as many locations as possible.

[Frosty.]

It does look as though any snow in southern england on thursday will turn back to rain except on high ground but for the midlands, wales and northern england there could be 6 inches of snow with drifting in the strenghtening easterly winds. The Scandi High looks rock solid to keep northern britain in the cold easterlies until the very end of the weekend at least with sleet/hail/snow showers peppering exposed eastern and northern coasts and hills. The wind chill factor is expected to increase across the north as scotland will be sandwiched between high pressure to the north east and southerly tracking low pressure systems, fun times ahead.

Edited February 6, 2007 by Frosty039

[Snowyowl9]

Wales and northern england there could be 6 inches of snow with drifting in the strenghtening easterly winds. The Scandi High looks rock solid to keep northern britain in the cold easterlies until the very end of the weekend at least with sleet/hail/snow showers peppering exposed eastern and northern coasts and hills. The wind chill factor is expected to increase across the north as scotland will be sandwiched between high pressure to the north east and southerly tracking low pressure systems, fun times ahead.

hi Karl.

Yes very exciting stuff this model watching is... the 6z run is a nice run.

http://85.214.49.20/wz/pics/Rtavn1501.png

http://85.214.49.20/pics/brack1a.gif

As you say we could get alot of snow from this and with those east winds aswell plenty of drifting for the hills

It`s still nailbiting stuff though what`ll happen exactly.

It`s much colder today which is a great start.

Edited February 6, 2007 by Snowyowl9

[Rollo]

Greetings from sunny Malaga- looks like I may well get my share of snow come Thursday-congratulations to Tamara,BFTP and TEITS for getting it right(I hope),regards to all,Mike.

[grab my graupel]

I've been saying for well over a week now that the models would take it in turn to over be progressive/overcook with the atlantic returning and underestimate height rises to the north and that the trend would be for them being dragged painfully, erratically and slowly towards a colder outlook.

Hi Tamara,

Sorry that I haven't quoted all of your post as I feel it deserves bringing to the front page again.

I have to say I am almost out of breath trying to keep up with all what is happening

at the moment.

I don't know whether to watch the radar look through the ensembles, take part on the cold weather discussion thread or just chill out and let it all happen.

Regard the Models, I have still got a smile on my face now.

What wonderful charts we are seeing at the moment for our future prospects.

I thought I was dreaming when I saw the 06z thismorning.

I know that I should be concentrating on this current cold spell but I can't help but get

excited, when it is looking better with every run.

AS you do, I think we might be looking at something special And I think this winter owes us, with what we had to suffer during the early part, so maybe it's pay back time.

This weeks spell looks to be decreasing my chances of seeing any significant Snow,

but I don't mind as there are people more deserved than me who haven't seen a single flake

this winter, so I hope it is those people who benefit the most from this cold spell.

Some very exciting times ahead I think, and makes me glad I chose this as a Hobby.

Brian.

[Hiya]

Could somebody tell me how intense this precipitation is expected to be please??????? (going by the Met Office radar - light=blue, green=moderate and red=intense)

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_...t_warnings.html

Severe weather warning now issued by the Met Office!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Yellow's and Green's with small splashes of Pink.

I've got a screenshot of the metoffice radar with three fronts piled on top of eachother to give a precip band 300 miles across, that delivered 9 inches, and there was hardly any pink to be seen. I'll put it up later if I can find it.

I'm just waiting contently till some model action comes my way.

[MAF]

Could somebody tell me how intense this precipitation is expected to be please??????? (going by the Met Office radar - light=blue, green=moderate and red=intense)

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_...t_warnings.html

Severe weather warning now issued by the Met Office!!!!!!!!!!!!!

http://' target="_blank">Rainfall radar imagery Downpour (more than 16 mm per hour) Very heavy (8 to 16 mm per hour) Heavy (4 to 8 mm per hour) Moderate (2 to 4 mm per hour) Moderate (1 to 2 mm per hour) Slight (0.5 to 1 mm per hour) Very slight (less then 0.5 mm per hour)

Radar imagery shows rain, hail and snow but drizzle isn't shown as the drops are too small to be detected.

[Thundery wintry showers]

I'm going to go against the grain and say that the 06Z is not a good run for cold/snow lovers into FI; although the synoptics look enticing, apart from a 36-hour easterly around 19 February it is generally too warm for wintry precipitation, and the easterlies and near-average temperatures would almost certainly bring dry cloudy weather.

The Euro models remain the highest-potential bets into FI.

[Frosty.]

hi Karl.

Yes very exciting stuff this model watching is... the 6z run is a nice run.

http://85.214.49.20/wz/pics/Rtavn1501.png

http://85.214.49.20/pics/brack1a.gif

As you say we could get alot of snow from this and with those east winds aswell plenty of drifting for the hills

It`s still nailbiting stuff though what`ll happen exactly.

It`s much colder today which is a great start.

Hi Snowyowl9,

Good luck with the snow, it does look as though the midlands/wales and northern england will be worst hit with the air likely to remain cold in these areas into the weekend. It is still difficult to pin down the exact track of the low and there is a margin for error of say 70 miles north or south which will make a ton of difference. Overall the next few weeks have a classic battle set-up which was sorely missed in the first half of the winter.

Edited February 6, 2007 by Frosty039

[kar999]

Greetings from sunny Malaga- looks like I may well get my share of snow come Thursday-congratulations to Tamara,BFTP and TEITS for getting it right(I hope),regards to all,Mike.

I still think it's too early for congratulations. I've seen many a mild v cold battle end in damp squibs in a very short space of time. Having said that, the models do look promising and I've moved the sledge a little closer to the shed door.