06z model discussions - wet and windy soon?!

[Paul]

Please continue discussion on the latest model runs here - please stay on topic. General cold spell discussion is available in this thread:

http://www.netweather.tv/forum/index.php?showtopic=36157

In depth/techie model discussion is here:

http://www.netweather.tv/forum/index.php?showtopic=34546

The latest GFS models can be seen here:

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=nwdc;sess=

And the ensembles here:

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=ensviewer;sess=

[Just Before Dawn]

06z starting to crawl out - and so the circus begins.....

[dapick2002]

lets hope the 6z is a little better than the last couple of runs!

[snowmadchrisuk]

lets hope the 6z is a little better than the last couple of runs!

It will be better. Confidence is what's needed my friend. ' always look on the bright side of life all that'

[Harsh Climate]

lol, I thought the 06z eas a classic! (above 500ft in west yorkshire would recieve a 3 day blizzard according to that run!)

[snowmadchrisuk]

Looks like could be a downgrade coming up to me. 850's are already alot warmer than on the 00z and the -5 to our west before the front comes in has changed to 0. not looking good atm imo.

[Jude_foster]

Is this run even worse?

[snowmadchrisuk]

Is this run even worse?

To early to tell. i'ts progging some very light snow ahead of the front at the moment. But temps look very margenal to me .

[Jude_foster]

-5 Air already up to Northern scotland +78, This looks worse to me

[Harsh Climate]

Theres no battle at all by the looks of the 06z. This is a very bad start to the run...

[snowmadchrisuk]

Foget anything out of this run in the short term . It's progging temps of 6 and 7 degrees in the south by 12pm thursday as the front moves in. The very north may see something briefly if the front gets that far.

[VillagePlank]

Do you think the snow in the North Sea will settle?

[Jude_foster]

Downgrade... I honestly thought the 06z would be a better run... It was the run that put as back in a good mood on the previous cold snap....

[snowmadchrisuk]

Theres no battle at all by the looks of the 06z. This is a very bad start to the run...

Nope Atlantic comes marching in takes straight over and all most of us get is some modarate rainfall. it's now into 66 hours its almost 'game over'

West is best can now goto asda and buy a nice big cigar.

Edited February 5, 2007 by snowmadchrisuk

[The Eagle]

Funny enough that now the ECM is actually better then the GFS. Still this run - althoough it is a downgrade - still gives some snow on it Northern flank. Have to say though it is VERY different to the UKMO

[Harsh Climate]

Definatly fear its game over know, especially after such poor/progressive esembles! (00z)

The only glimmer of hope remains the UKMO..

[Just Before Dawn]

Do you think the snow in the North Sea will settle?

North Sea SST's still high for the time of year VP, so with slightly higher temps on this run I'd say the wrong side of marginal unless you're very lucky and a fair distance inland.

[KDME]

Scanning the forecasts on the major weather sources on the net, looks like this cold snap will not do much for London and the SE. At the moment it is cool, greay and miserable here is Kent. The office is freezing, just the motivation I need for a Monday!

Have fun you guys further north when the snow comes....

[Jude_foster]

Nope Atlantic comes marching in takes straight over and all most of us get is som modarate rainfall. it's now into 66 hours its almost 'game over'

I agree, there is No Way there is going to be a heavy snowfall from this...... Expect even more downgrades.

Im so disapointed, I thought I would see some great SNOWS this week, even if it did melt after, its better than rain.

[Harsh Climate]

Nope Atlantic comes marching in takes straight over and all most of us get is some modarate rainfall. it's now into 66 hours its almost 'game over'

West is best can now goto asda and buy a nice big cigar.

lol, WIB allways goes for mild! And since mild wins 95% of the time hes allways guna be right.....

Doesnt take a geniouse to play his game..

[fine wine]

And its over before it even started!! Attempt 2 at a good wintry spell fails! This run is much more progressive with the Atlantic and there isn't a battle at all. Its not just 1 run either, its now a progression over the last 4 runs. Looks like WIB was correct so it looks like a lot of people will be offering their appologies over the next few days.

[Jude_foster]

Temps upto 12 degrees in the SW on this run for Friday.... This is just laughable

[TEITS]

Can't help but laugh at some of the negative posts this morning and the way certain members seem to wait & pounce on any poor output i.e 0Z GFS.

I don't know what to say about the models this morning because it's swings & roundabouts with the GFS being more progressive with the return of the atlantic/weaker Scandi HP and then some stunning Fax charts.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/brack2.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/brack2a.gif

How often do you see these great synoptical fax charts at this range??.

So is this a blip with the GFS or will the other models follow GFS on their 12Z or will the GFS swing back??

Im not disappointed or negative about this mornings outputs for the simple reason how can you be when the models don't know at such a short time frame what is going to happen. Besides im looking forward to the N blocking that is coming up this month that will bring many more opportunities.

[BristolBaggie]

Nope Atlantic comes marching in takes straight over and all most of us get is some modarate rainfall. it's now into 66 hours its almost 'game over'

West is best can now goto asda and buy a nice big cigar.

For goodness sake listen to the experts rather than an overated model like the GFS, if the BBC are saying snow then they must be on to something as they have more data to use.

KEEP THE FAITH

[paul tall]

Just as I predicted too.

I just couldn't shake the feeling that the Atlantic would win through without a good cold/mild battle. My thoughts of a cool dry period, followed by rain, could well come to pass.

Ah, who am I kidding, I only thought that because this ALWAYS happens, there was no science in it.