Solar and Aurora Activity Chat

[GeorgeWX]

Earth directed sunspot 1283, the region which has shown slow but steady growth over the last 4-5 days has 'let one off' in style with what looks to be an M5.3 solar flare at around 2am - 06/09.

With very little information available at this moment it's not easy to determine whether there is an associated cme or not. Going by the x-ray flux alone the eruption seems more than just a brief flash of light, suggesting an ejection of plasma has occured. If that is the case then we will see the effects of this one as it passes earth.

Having quick look at the nasa sdo images 'post-eruption', 1283 still looks fiesty and holds on to large towering magnetic filaments. More M class activity is possible from this region.

Beyond that, the large coronal hole (ch475) has remained in it's slightly decayed state and is now near enough in full 'earth' view, It is still well established and reasonably large in size, behind that and soon to emerge over the limb in the coming 24 hours is another active region that looks similar in size to earth facing sunspot 1283, already we can see massive filaments stretching out from the eastern limb..... This reasonably sized sunspot is in FRONT of the 'potential' monster sunspot region, that is trailing around 5-6 days behind - this morning's update on that potentially huge active area on the farside is that it may have grown even larger and according to todays sciesmic data, is more magnetically complex.

With 1283 finally churning out mid M class flares, the expected 'ch', and the 2 active regions on the farside appearing soon, the next 14 days might turn out to be fruitful for ham's and aurora hunters... and terrifying for the 'doomers'!!!

just to add, a very premature conclusion to make... but according to the most recent stereo image there looks to be a cme of at least 'notable' size.

those early images have been uploaded to youtube...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K9ZmSRG10LQ&feature=player_embedded

Edited September 6, 2011 by GeorgeWX

[yamkin]

Very interesting site: http://spaceweatherm...from-sun-today/ Edited September 6, 2011 by yamkin

[Crepuscular Ray]

Earth directed sunspot 1283, the region which has shown slow but steady growth over the last 4-5 days has 'let one off' in style with what looks to be an M5.3 solar flare at around 2am - 06/09.

With very little information available at this moment it's not easy to determine whether there is an associated cme or not. Going by the x-ray flux alone the eruption seems more than just a brief flash of light, suggesting an ejection of plasma has occured. If that is the case then we will see the effects of this one as it passes earth.

Having quick look at the nasa sdo images 'post-eruption', 1283 still looks fiesty and holds on to large towering magnetic filaments. More M class activity is possible from this region.

Beyond that, the large coronal hole (ch475) has remained in it's slightly decayed state and is now near enough in full 'earth' view, It is still well established and reasonably large in size, behind that and soon to emerge over the limb in the coming 24 hours is another active region that looks similar in size to earth facing sunspot 1283, already we can see massive filaments stretching out from the eastern limb..... This reasonably sized sunspot is in FRONT of the 'potential' monster sunspot region, that is trailing around 5-6 days behind - this morning's update on that potentially huge active area on the farside is that it may have grown even larger and according to todays sciesmic data, is more magnetically complex.

With 1283 finally churning out mid M class flares, the expected 'ch', and the 2 active regions on the farside appearing soon, the next 14 days might turn out to be fruitful for ham's and aurora hunters... and terrifying for the 'doomers'!!!

just to add, a very premature conclusion to make... but according to the most recent stereo image there looks to be a cme of at least 'notable' size.

those early images have been uploaded to youtube...

http-~~-//www.youtube.com/watch?v=K9ZmSRG10LQ&feature=player_embedded

Notable, yes, by the standards of this cycle and the CME's very pretty but it doesn't look like it's heading for us.

[GeorgeWX]

Large X2 class flare from sunspot 1283 in the last 45 mins, it will be a couple of hours before we know for sure if there is any related cme, my hunch is that this is just an impulsive flare and not capable of major geomagnetic storming.

Notable, yes, by the standards of this cycle and the CME's very pretty but it doesn't look like it's heading for us.

It looks like there were 2 simultaneous solar flares, the M5 from 1283 and another flare measuring circa M1 from the western limb which emitted a very bright ball of plasma making the job of identifying any earthbound matter from the M5 flare that little bit harder. It's very likely that the cme related to the M5 flare has an earth directed trajectory. NOAA's daily space weather forecast determines that the earth directed cme is slow at 450km/s, it will be a couple of days before it reaches us.

Edited September 6, 2011 by GeorgeWX

[Crepuscular Ray]

Large X2 class flare from sunspot 1283 in the last 45 mins, it will be a couple of hours before we know if there is any related cme.

It looks like there were 2 simultaneous solar flares, the M5 from 1283 and another flare measuring circa M1 from the western limb which emitted a very bright ball of plasma making the job of identifying any earthbound matter that little bit harder. It's very likely that the cme related to the M5 flare has an earth directed trajectory.

Sadly X2 still isn't generally effective enough to cause aurorae that can be seen from central London (although some people might be glad about that).

TKS.

Edited September 6, 2011 by crepuscular ray

[GeorgeWX]

It seems that my hunch may have been incorrect as the low res stereo images are showing a cme lifting off the solar surface in response to the X2 flare.

[frogesque]

We can but hope George!

X2 facing us is the best chance we've had in a long time. Hopefully there is a good CME and within 24hours we will know what the implications are for Earth. Spaceweather are talking about a glancing blow to the North but we'll just have to sit tight for the moment.

[GeorgeWX]

We can but hope George!

X2 facing us is the best chance we've had in a long time. Hopefully there is a good CME and within 24hours we will know what the implications are for Earth. Spaceweather are talking about a glancing blow to the North but we'll just have to sit tight for the moment.

Well bear in mind that it was only 5 weeks ago that we had a pair of M-class flares both with cme's resulting in some major geomagnetic storming. The northern lights were visible in Germany and France that night.

The reason that last months storm reached severe levels was due to a cannibal cme effect, where the second cme caught up with the first cme whilst on route to earth.

Moving ahead to current events, The cme released during the M5 class flare is predicted to be slow at 450km/s, The second cme related to the X2 class flare is very likely to be travelling at a faster pace and should swallow up matter from cme number one, much like what happened last month. NOAA have still to issue any detailed analysis of the X2 flare and related cme. It might be their next daily forecast (22:00) that we get some more information. Yes the core of both cme's may be heading north of the ecliptic plane but both cme's are likely to have earth directed components meaning that there will be some kind of geomagnetic disturbance.

I think that a spell of minor geomagnetic storming (kp5-6) is very likely once the cme's pass by, very soon after their effect on the geomagnetic field wanes then the high speed wind stream from the large coronal hole will arrive sparking it's own minor geo-storm.

It's whether or not the incoming bullet has enough punch for storming to reach the kp8 threshold once again, that's the big question.

This image clearly shows the extent of the large coronal hole, it will be earth facing in the next 24-36 hours and it's influence on the solar wind will reach our shores a further 48-72 hours later.

Edited September 7, 2011 by GeorgeWX

[GeorgeWX]

Tonight's noaa forecast predicts that the eruption relating to the X2 flare is travelling at around 800km/s, very much middle of the field in terms of cme speed but still nearly twice as fast as the cme released during the M5 flare, They anticipate the arrival of the cme sometime during Friday evening, they also anticipate minor geomagnetic storming (kp5-6) during the cme passage.

More recently we have had yet another X class flare from sunspot 1283 around 3 hours ago, early reports are suggesting another cme has lifted from the solar surface but it will be several hours before we know just how much of the eruption is earth directed. Taking a quick look at the x-ray flux it would appear that there is a significant cme as a result of this flare, the length of time it has taken for the x-ray flux to return to base levels is about 3 hours, such eruptions are known as LDE's (long duration event).

Edited September 8, 2011 by GeorgeWX

[GeorgeWX]

The potentially huge sunspot on the farside of the sun is still very much alive 'n' kicking according to today's gong seismic images. Just compare the magnetism of the active region that's still on the farside with the level of magnetic activity coming from the largest sunspots on the earth facing side of the sun.

This region of interest will emerge over the eastern limb in the next 3-4 days.

Today's NOAA forecast reports that the most recent X class flare from sunspot 1283 doesn't appear to have any earth directed component. The active region most capable of earth directed activity is now 1289 which has shown development over the last 24 hours and becoming more complex, if growth continues then it will hold potential for M class flares.

Tomorrow evening/Saturday morning we should detect the arrival of the first cme's (M5/X2) with auroral activity possible for the northern half of the UK during the cme passage.

Sometime on Sunday or Monday the coronal hole's influence on the solar wind will pass us, possibly sparking it's own minor geomagnetic storm and bringing the aurora over the northern half of the UK once again.

Good time for an ex-hurricane to pay us a visit eh...

[GeorgeWX]

A shockwave has just been detected by land based magnetometers indicating the arrival of the cme.

[BornFromTheVoid]

KP index is at 7 at the moment. Might be worth a look outside later if the skies are clear

http://www.spaceweatherlive.com/index.php?poollicht〈=EN

[Rainy]

What hopes tonight? Has anyone clear sky? Cloudy here alas so far.

Image courtesy Spaceweather.

[kar999]

Tomorrow evening/Saturday morning we should detect the arrival of the first cme's (M5/X2) with auroral activity possible for the northern half of the UK during the cme passage.

Sometime on Sunday or Monday the coronal hole's influence on the solar wind will pass us, possibly sparking it's own minor geomagnetic storm and bringing the aurora over the northern half of the UK once again.

Good time for an ex-hurricane to pay us a visit eh...

Yep... it's happened many many times before over the years .....a rare possible sighting opportunity destroyed by being completely clouded out.... bugger!.

[frogesque]

Very difficult to tell. Some stars peeking through and they may be some 'greenish fog' to the North. However, we have a lot of low cloud and there is an almost full moon to contend with in addition to the usual lousy light pollution.

Will check again and see if the sky improves a bit. So far haven't seen anything worth going a 20+ mile drive for.

Edited September 9, 2011 by frogesque

[frogesque]

Just checked outside again. Sky has cleared but Kp has gone off the boil. No sign of any aurora at the moment.

Not sure where we are with arrival of CMEs and eta from their related flares. Are there any more due to arrive?

[GeorgeWX]

KP index is at 7 at the moment. Might be worth a look outside later if the skies are clear

http://www.spaceweat...ollicht〈=EN

I would say that it's worth a look if you are north of the Midlands, only if the skies to the north are clear and it's not much hassle for you to get to a good viewpoint. The geomagnetic storm has reduced to levels typical of kp3/4 but sub-storm activity is very likely during the optimum uk aurora viewing time (the next 3-4 hours)

Yep... it's happened many many times before over the years .....a rare possible sighting opportunity destroyed by being completely clouded out.... bugger!.

I'm quite confident that some great opportunities will arise for uk aurora viewing this autumn/winter. All that's needed is to be on your toes and know when it's going to happen.

What hopes tonight? Has anyone clear sky? Cloudy here alas so far.

Image courtesy Spaceweather.

Very cloudy here unfortunately, It seems the same for the bulk of the uk.

That image you posted it's a handy tool to use alongside other data but dont give the size of the aurora on the image too much weight, the satellite that collects this data takes around 45 minutes to complete one image (one polar pass). The aurora can move a lot during that time.

The magnetic field looks to be in a state of recovery indicating the cme has passed. What we just don't know for sure is how many of those large cme inducing flares that came from sunspot 1283 have an earth directed component. The possibility of further cme shocks exists during the next 24-48 hours and the arrival of the wind stream from the large coronal hole arrives in the next 36-48 hours.

Edited September 9, 2011 by GeorgeWX

[kar999]

I'm quite confident that some great opportunities will arise for uk aurora viewing this autumn/winter. All that's needed is to be on your toes and know when it's going to happen.

I've been signed up for SMS text alerts from http://aurorawatch.lancs.ac.uk/alerts for a good few years now and got an alert early warning text through this afternoon so even if I'm away from my PC for a few days I get the heads up. I think twitter is their prefered alert method nowadays but I personally dont tweet!

I'm sure as this cycle intensifies we'll be back to more frequent opportunities but I've been through a few cycles over the years (showing my age now) and all too often the peak activity coincides with daylight hours or our usual Great British blanket of cloud!

Edited September 9, 2011 by kar999

[GeorgeWX]

ok so minutes after saying that the magnetic field is stabalizing we have data coming in suggesting a large substorm is on it's way. The 'Goes' satellites are around one hour upstream and monitor the magnetic field in real time. The magnetometers on the satellite indicate a sharp drop of 50nT in the last hour. Land based magnetometers should to some degree respond in the same way very soon. A second spell of mild to moderate geomagnetic storming could imminently be on the cards.

Edited September 9, 2011 by GeorgeWX

[frogesque]

... and ... right on cue we have blanket cloud!

[GeorgeWX]

With confidence I can now say that this geomagnetic storm is subsiding!!!

Attached is the uk magnetometer showing that sharp 50nT deviation around one hour after I wrote the last post, circled in red, the storm after the calm after the storm.

Todays lasco/stereo imagery is showing what could be a large filament eruption coming from around the centre portion of the sun and is possible verging on likely that there is a cme with an earth directed component as a result of the eruption. The x-ray flux doesn't detect much in the way of flaring and the sunspots at the centre of the disk 'appear' to be infant in size and not capable of much

This might co-incide or arrive during the period we expect an already unsettled magnetic field (due to coronal hole effects). The two of these combined might be enough for some periods of major geomagnetic storming.

Also to look forward to is more potential geomagnetic storming coming from the flanks of the more recent cme's.

Sunspot 1289 is remaining quiet but has grown consistently since appearing over the limb several days ago and is capable of M-class flaring, as it's magnetic canopy gets ever more complex the risk of X-class flares increases, for at least the next 3-4 days any cme's from this region are likely to have effect on our geomagnetic field.

Another update on the mythical large active region on the farside I've been bleating on about for over a week...

The seismic map still shows an area larger and more complex than the already large sunspot 1289, But overall a slight reduction in size i think due to some recent massive eruptions.

And an image from nasa's stereo behind. Looking at the sun 'side on' we can the the large active region on the centre of the disk'.

This active region will appear over the limb in the next day or two, I'm looking forward to that.

Edited September 10, 2011 by GeorgeWX

[shuggee]

Space.com saying last night was the first in a 'volley' of solar storm particles to hit earth:

http://www.space.com...ts-display.html

Not much action with current measurements normal though.

[yamkin]

Earth's magnetosphere is being battered right now http://www2.nict.go.jp/y/y223/simulation/realtime/index.html

[BornFromTheVoid]

Can see some auroral activity on the Katla cam here http://www.ruv.is/katla

[kar999]

Not much action with current measurements normal though.

Yep.... typical... clear skies here...(except near full moon) but although a mild storm is in progress it's far too weak for my latitude. The usual favoured high northern spots iin Canada and Scandinavia should be geting a show. My Bro iis in British Columbia so I've told him to be on the lookout for Aurora ... and earthquakes!

Edited September 10, 2011 by kar999