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Posted
  • Location: Isle of Lewis
  • Weather Preferences: Sun in summer, snow in winter, wind in Autumn and rainbows in the spring!
  • Location: Isle of Lewis

    Youll probably be aware of this site, just one thing, watch it for false alarms.

    Aurora watch uk

    Looking forward to some auroras this winter, we are North facing and the only thing between us and the north pole is the North atlantic ocean!

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    Just a few pics from early this morning at West Sands, St. Andrews  First one was 100iso eq @ f1.8 and 10 sec exposure, strong moonlight about midnight with the faintest of hint of an aurora.

    From Salon on the Isle Of Rum & The Isle Of Lewis tonight. Credit; Martin Keivers and Emma Mitchell.  

    More shots here from Scotland last night. Fingers crossed again tonight as there is another predicted Kp7 ☺

    Posted Images

    Posted
  • Location: East Ayrshire
  • Location: East Ayrshire

    Very exciting stuff, the best chance for uk aurora viewing for several years i assure you. Initial forecasts were predicting a likely max kp (storm severity) of 7 on a scale 0-9.

    If a kp7 geo storm were to pass (which i feel it will) then aurora would be visible in the north sky right down to around 53N and overhead for Scotlanders.

    however......

    The most recent forecast issued by noaa in the last hour hints at periods of 'major' and 'severe' storming. Major/severe storming gives kp values 7 to 9, a kp9 aurora is the maximum and during such an event everybody in northern europe would see some auroral activity.

    .

    No matter where in the uk you are there's a real possibility of catching an excellent display, i wouldn't be surprised if the rarer red aurora pays us a visit due to the density of plasma within the 3 notable M-class flare/cme's.

    It's worth noting a recent spiking deviation (20nT) on the magnetometer in the last couple of hours, this could be cme number 1 arriving. The major storming is likely on the arrival of the m9 flare/cme (the 3rd flare)travelling along a clear path towards earth at a speedy 2100km/s.

    Also worth watching is a youtube vid published in the last hour by the noaa space weather researchers speaking about the incoming cme's

    Edited by GeorgeWX
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    Posted
  • Location: west croydon (near lombard)
  • Location: west croydon (near lombard)

    Moving at an estimated speed of 1950 km/s, this CME is expected to sweep up two earlier CMEs already en route. Analysts at the GSFC Space Weather Lab say the combined cloud should reach Earth on August 5th at 13:55 UT plus or minus 7 hours: "The impact on Earth is likely to be major. The estimated maximum geomagnetic activity index level Kp is 7 (Kp ranges from 0 - 9). The flanks of the CME may also impact STEREO A, Mars and Mercury/MESSENGER."

    http://spaceweather.com/

    http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/rt_plots/pro_3d.html

    Real-time Magnetosphere Simulation

    http://www2.nict.go.jp/y/y223/simulation/realtime/index.html

    http://www.solarham.com/

    good site for info

    showing m class flare at present

    http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/NOAAscales/index.html#GeomagneticStorms

    shows what warning levels could mean

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    Posted
  • Location: Devizes Wiltshire
  • Location: Devizes Wiltshire

    so when might we see the northern lights? would be awesome to see it never seen them before.... and could this cause problems with electric and so on?

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    Posted
  • Location: Shirley, Croydon, Greater London
  • Location: Shirley, Croydon, Greater London

    so when might we see the northern lights? would be awesome to see it never seen them before.... and could this cause problems with electric and so on?

    There is a strong possibility the UK will be hit by the powerful solar flare. This is because the intensity of the solar flare is reaching the X territory band which is the most powerful level.

    Don't be surprised that the aviation authorities ground all planes as a percaution.

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    Posted
  • Location: East Ayrshire
  • Location: East Ayrshire

    so when might we see the northern lights? would be awesome to see it never seen them before.... and could this cause problems with electric and so on?

    We have 3 earthbound clouds of plasma, the latter one is travelling at a ridiculously fast speed, forecasters believe the 3rd solar flare/cme will scoop up the other 2 en-route. This doesnt look to be the case as cme number 1 looks to have arrived and currently causing active/minor storming. cme's 2 and 3 should arrive in the coming 12 hours and provoke much stormier conditions. All this on top of an enhanced wind stream from a large coronal hole means there's a good chance of some kind of display tonight (the next few hours) in the northern half of Scotland and Friday night (possibly) uk wide but certainly as far south as 53N. The geomagnetic storm could last through Saturday as well depending on how severe it is.

    There is always fluctuations in the grid during geomagnetic storms, power companies will be well aware of the incoming storm and watch the grid, the very worst case scenario is sections of the grid get shut town for short periods of time. I dont expect any kind of mobile cell tower meltdown or sparks flying from the plug sockets. We did quite well during the last solar cycle and survived a number of 'severe' geomagnetic storms measuring kp8-9 between the years 2000 and 2005.

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    Posted
  • Location: Shirley, Croydon, Greater London
  • Location: Shirley, Croydon, Greater London

    Yamkin, where the hell do you get this rubbish from? Even NASA are admitting this solar cycle is going to be one of the quietist for several hundred years.

    Oh, and if you continue to refer in your sig to a teeny weeny comet (a loose agglomeration of ice and dust no more than a couple of kilometres across and only a few degrees above absolute zero) as a dwarf star (several millions of kilometres across, several thousand degrees centigrade at various points, consisting of gas and plasma and undergoing nuclear fusion in its core) it just makes you look like you don't have a clue what you're talking about.

    Funny how elenin has just arrived in our epeleptic plane and now the sun wakes up almost immediately especially when NASA said sun was going to sleep.

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    Posted
  • Location: Devizes Wiltshire
  • Location: Devizes Wiltshire

    may i ask where 53n is? god sound like such a noob, and that sun sport is very active so you think there will be more in the coming days?

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    Posted
  • Location: East Ayrshire
  • Location: East Ayrshire

    may i ask where 53n is? god sound like such a noob, and that sun sport is very active so you think there will be more in the coming days?

    roughly speaking 53N is a west/east line from north Wales across Nottingham.

    This might be the peak of (earth directed) solar activity for a month or so, one side of the sun is more active than the other and it takes 4 weeks for one solar rotation to occur, however that doesnt mean that this time next month there will be another chance for uk aurora viewing. Make the most of this opportunity.

    Edited by GeorgeWX
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    Posted
  • Location: Devizes Wiltshire
  • Location: Devizes Wiltshire

    thanks well im hoping il see something down here if not, then hope some nice pics of the people up north to look at :)

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    Posted
  • Location: Devizes Wiltshire
  • Location: Devizes Wiltshire

    Posted Image

    severe would be the best for our chances? but wouldn't that nock power out at certain places round the world?

    Edited by lfcdude
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    Posted
  • Location: Shirley, Croydon, Greater London
  • Location: Shirley, Croydon, Greater London
    ONE DOWN, TWO TO GO: As predicted by analysts at the GSFC Space Weather Lab, the first of three CMEs produced by the recent spate of flare activity reached Earth during the late hours of August 4th. The impact was weak and is not expected to produce strong geomagnetic storms. Two more CMEs are still on the way and, as described below, they may have merged into a single cloud that could produce significant storming when they reach Earth on August 5th at 10:00 UT (plus or minus 7 hours). http://spaceweather.com/
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    Posted
  • Location: Shirley, Croydon, Greater London
  • Location: Shirley, Croydon, Greater London

    NOAA space weather update, August 4 2011

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    Posted
  • Location: East Ayrshire
  • Location: East Ayrshire

    It looks like this geomagnetic storm has a lot of potential, readings on the ace spacecraft show the strength of the magnetic field is around 3 times stronger than the 1st cme hit late last night. Solar wind speeds are also well up compared to the first cme hit. A little premature to say for sure but I think there is enough energy to provoke severe geomagnetic storming (kp8 to kp9). The forecasted 'kp7' will occur.

    http://www.swpc.noaa..._SWEPAM_6h.html

    I also look forward to the solar wind speed and density updating on the soho spacecraft, it provides more reliable numbers than ace, but only updates every few hours.

    http://umtof.umd.edu/pm/

    I still stand by the statement that i made earlier - tonight (and maybe tomorrow night) will be the best opportunity to see the aurora over the uk for several years.

    i'll be driving a few miles south to a location free of light pollution once the sun goes down, the drive is well worth it.

    edited to add...............

    ok check out that whacking great spike on the aurorawatch magnetometer that has happened in the last 2 or 3 minutes. That's big! The biggest 'sudden storm commencement' since 2007 in my opinon.

    A very hopeful initial sign of major storming and uk wide auroral activity.

    http://aurorawatch.lancs.ac.uk/

    Edited by GeorgeWX
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    Posted
  • Location: Sth Staffs/Shrops 105m/345' & NW Snowdonia 219m/719'
  • Location: Sth Staffs/Shrops 105m/345' & NW Snowdonia 219m/719'

    may i ask where 53n is? god sound like such a noob, and that sun sport is very active so you think there will be more in the coming days?

    Check out the Kp index map in the resources thread sticky I started a few years ago at the top of the page. http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/14968-aurora-sun-activity-resources-thread/

    Posted Image

    Don't be surprised that the aviation authorities ground all planes as a percaution.

    I think that's a little over the top. Although armagedon senarios have been published in recent times, I dont think were quite at the national grid meltdown storm senario stage just yet. I dont recall planes ever being grounded before in previous years even during KP9 storms after major high X Class flares/CME's. They have however definitely diverted transatlantic flight paths further south away from the poles and moved astronauts into the thicker parts of the ISS to minimise exposure to cosmic radiation.

    The NOAA is forecast for KP 6-7 (maybe even a tad higher if we are lucky) so we do have the best chance in years of possibly seeing aurora in the UK certainly up North... cloud cover permitting. :clap:

    Edited by kar999
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    Posted
  • Location: East Ayrshire
  • Location: East Ayrshire

    Check out the Kp index map in the resources thread sticky I started a few years ago at the top of the page. http://forum.netweat...sources-thread/

    Posted Image

    The NOAA is forecast for KP 6-7 (maybe even a tad higher if we are lucky) so we do have the best chance in years of possibly seeing aurora in the UK certainly up North... cloud cover permitting. :clap:

    I think i discussed with you before that the accuracy of this map is questionable. I have witnessed several aurora during geomagnetic storms measuring kp5 from here in ayrshire. The map is good at helping people understand the principle of storm intensity in relation to your location but the kp threshold lines are around 150-200 miles too far north

    Edited by GeorgeWX
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    Posted
  • Location: Tornado Alley, west London
  • Location: Tornado Alley, west London

    That said, the auroral activity map on space weather is showing increased auroral activity moving farther south (still north of the Shetlands at the moment, but it might be worth people in the north of Scotland having a look after what passes for dark at this time of year).

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    Posted
  • Location: Sth Staffs/Shrops 105m/345' & NW Snowdonia 219m/719'
  • Location: Sth Staffs/Shrops 105m/345' & NW Snowdonia 219m/719'

    I think i discussed with you before that the accuracy of this map is questionable. ... The map is good at helping people understand the principle of storm intensity in relation to your location but the kp threshold lines are around 150-200 miles too far north

    You have indeed and I was just trying to give lfcdude a pointer in the right direction to his question. :) Having a good clear view to a Northern horizon also helps as often at my latitude all I see is a faint glow low on the horizon unless storming is severe.

    Edited by kar999
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    Posted
  • Location: East Ayrshire
  • Location: East Ayrshire

    That said, the auroral activity map on space weather is showing increased auroral activity moving farther south (still north of the Shetlands at the moment, but it might be worth people in the north of Scotland having a look after what passes for dark at this time of year).

    Yes that is quite often the case immediatly after a cme hits, earths magnetic field starts a battle while the incoming solar wind battering us peels away the skins of protection, during this time the auroral band remains in a repressed state. What I want to see develop on the land based magnetometers is a collapse in the nT measurement over the next 2 or 3 hours as the solar wind takes control. Down to 1000nT on the aurorawatch magnetometer would likely amount to conditions around the kp8 level.

    This is what I expect to see happening this evening...if i were to stay sat in front of the computer, which I'm not :)

    post-12654-0-37012400-1312576708_thumb.p

    Edited by GeorgeWX
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    Posted
  • Location: Doncaster South Yorkshire 4m( 13ft) ASL
  • Location: Doncaster South Yorkshire 4m( 13ft) ASL

    just a quick question are there any live cams from countrys in a better position than us?

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    Posted
  • Location: Tornado Alley, west London
  • Location: Tornado Alley, west London

    Yes that is quite often the case immediatly after a cme hits, earths magnetic field starts a battle while the incoming solar wind battering us peels away the skins of protection, during this time the auroral band remains in a repressed state. What I want to see develop on the land based magnetometers is a collapse in the nT measurement over the next 2 or 3 hours as the solar wind takes control. Down to 1000nT on the aurorawatch magnetometer would likely amount to conditions around the kp8 level.

    This is what I expect to see happening this evening...if i were to stay sat in front of the computer, which I'm not :)

    Could you translate nT please and explain why its collapsing might increase the likelihood of aurorae at lower latitudes. Thanks. :good:

    Edited by crepuscular ray
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    Posted
  • Location: Morley Leeds (West Yorkshire)
  • Location: Morley Leeds (West Yorkshire)

    Effects of solar flares arriving on Earth

    WASHINGTON — The impact of a series of eruptions on the sun began arriving at Earth on Friday and could affect some communications for a day or so.

    Operators of electrical grids are working to avoid outages, but the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration says some satellite communications and Global Positioning Systems could face problems.

    Three solar flares erupted on the sun starting Tuesday, and the strongest electromagnetic shocks were being felt Friday by the ACE spacecraft, a satellite that measures radiation bursts a few minutes before they strike Earth, said Joseph Kunches, a scientist at NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center in Colorado.

    Tom Bogdan, director of the center, said the sun is going from a quiet period into a busier cycle for solar flares and an increase in the number of such blasts is expected over the next three to five years.

    Solar flares send out bursts of electromagnetic energy that strike the Earth's magnetic field. The most common impacts for the average person are the glowing auroras around the north and south poles, and the researchers said those could be visible this weekend.

    The magnetic blasts, which Bogdan likened to a tsunami in space, can also affect electronic communications and electrical systems. A 1989 solar flare knocked out the electrical systems in Quebec, Canada, but the current solar storm is not expected to be that powerful. On a scale of 1 to 5, he said, it is probably a 2 or 3.

    But more significant solar storms are expected in the next few years, he said.

    The most powerful known solar storm occurred in 1859, Bogdan said. There were not as many vulnerable electrical items then, but it did knock out telegraph services, even burning down some telegraph stations, he said.

    Other serious solar blasts occurred in 1921 and 1940, he noted, and Kunches recalled one on Halloween in 2003.

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