Solar and Aurora Activity Chat

[GeorgeWX]

The geomagnetic storm is still ongoing this evening, the most recent planetery kp value was 6, Current activity on the uk magnetometer is still disruptive with notable deviation in the magnetic field. There's potential for a local k-index of 7 at the moment, auroral activity could reach as far south as 52N between now and the coming hour or two.

Edited March 12, 2011 by GeorgeWX

[frogesque]

The geomagnetic storm is still ongoing this evening, the most recent planetery kp value was 6, Current activity on the uk magnetometer is still disruptive with notable deviation in the magnetic field. There's potential for a local k-index of 7 at the moment, auroral activity could reach as far south as 52N between now and the coming hour or two.

So we get cloud cover with the odd snowstorm thrown in http://forum.netweather.tv/public/style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/wacko.gif

[Snowyowl9]

More activity tonight.

http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/pmap/pmapN.html

Had a dream about the northern lights the other night,in glorious colour

Long time since even that happened.

Edited March 31, 2011 by Snowyowl9

[Ali2011]

Just out of interest did anyone witness the northern lights on 2-3 April. I haven't been so lucky myself to witness this but would be great to hear someones account of what they saw - all people keep telling me is colourful lights but which usually show up on film as opposed to see with the visible eye

Edited April 4, 2011 by Ali2011

[full_frontal_occlusion]

Geomagnetic storm in progress Kp=6.

http://thewatchers.adorraeli.com/2011/05/28/suns-active-region-turns-toward-earth-geomagnetic-storm-in-progress/

ffO.

[Snowyowl9]

It`s been the quietest solar activity for 100 years.

Until now the sun is waking up,highest activity for years level 9.

Had an email amber alert.

http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/pmap/pmapN.html

Edited May 28, 2011 by Snowyowl9

[john pike]

http://www.solarham.com/

m class flares tonight

http://www2.nict.go.jp/y/y223/simulation/realtime/index.html

http://spaceweather.com/

looks like the sun could be busy for a while

worth following again..

[john pike]

STORM WARNING: NOAA forecasters estimate a greater than 25% chance of geomagnetic storms on June 9th. That's when a CME from the magnificent flare of June 7th is expected to deliver a glancing blow to Earth's magnetic field. High-latitude sky watchers should be alert for auroras

link http://spaceweather.com/

wow

Edited June 8, 2011 by john pike

[cooling climate]

http://www.solarham.com/

m class flares tonight

http://www2.nict.go....time/index.html

http://spaceweather.com/

looks like the sun could be busy for a while

worth following again..

Solar activity is forcast to be very low for the next three days.

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,

Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Updated 2011 Jun 07 2200 UTC

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 158 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Jun 2011

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06/2100Z

to 07/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past

24 hours. Region 1226 (S21W64) was the most active and produced the

largest event of the period, an M2/2N flare at 07/0641Z. Associated

with this event was a Type II radio sweep, a Type IV radio sweep, a

Tenflare of 720 sfu, and a full halo asymmetric CME with an

estimated plane of sky speed of 1155 km/s. Region 1226 had

previously produced only low level x-ray events and has lost most of

it spots and magnetic complexity after the M-flare. The other

regions on the disk remained stable and quiet.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at

very low levels with a chance for C-class events for the next three

days (08-10 June).

[john pike]

Solar activity is forcast to be very low for the next three days.

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,

Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Updated 2011 Jun 07 2200 UTC

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 158 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Jun 2011

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06/2100Z

to 07/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past

24 hours. Region 1226 (S21W64) was the most active and produced the

largest event of the period, an M2/2N flare at 07/0641Z. Associated

with this event was a Type II radio sweep, a Type IV radio sweep, a

Tenflare of 720 sfu, and a full halo asymmetric CME with an

estimated plane of sky speed of 1155 km/s. Region 1226 had

previously produced only low level x-ray events and has lost most of

it spots and magnetic complexity after the M-flare. The other

regions on the disk remained stable and quiet.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at

very low levels with a chance for C-class events for the next three

days (08-10 June).

STORM WARNING: NOAA forecasters estimate a greater than 25% chance of geomagnetic storms on June 9th. That's when a CME from the magnificent flare of June 7th is expected to deliver a glancing blow to Earth's magnetic field. High-latitude sky watchers should be alert for auroras

http://spaceweather.com/

please correct me if i am reading this wrong

http://beta.news.yahoo.com/unusual-solar-storm-could-disrupt-earth-communications-194814480.html

http://www.solarham.com/

Edited June 8, 2011 by john pike

[GeorgeWX]

After a period of 'relative' calm over the last 6 weeks solar activity is once again on an upward trend.

Last Saturday night CME effects from C class flares passed earth inducing the aurora as far south as 54N in Europe and 43N over the USA, KP values peaked at 6 with several regional kp values of 7 reported.

From Ayrshire a bright green band was visible to the north from around 1am on Sunday morning through the gaps in the cloud but was unfortunately too thick for a clear view of the arc.

More recently there has been some exciting activity on the solar surface with an epic sized prominance eruption. M2.5 was recorded on the x-ray flux. In my view this is easily the most impressive CME in the last 5 years.

Youtube vid with several different wavelengths.

Predictions for the CME's arrival time range from 10am 09/06 to 4pm 10/06, uk time. Spaceweather reports the chance of a 'glancing' blow due to the position of the eruption but my guess is that it will be more of a full frontal hit and provoke a long duration (24h+) geomagnetic storm with an average kp level of 4 and a peak kp level of 7. Definately one to watch out for.

[GeorgeWX]

Another youtube video with analysis from a NASA solar physicist.

and Lasco c3 movie of the blast

Edited June 8, 2011 by GeorgeWX

[Crepuscular Ray]

For once, the Daily Mail and Express have been so low-key compared to the Torygraph. I can't be bothered to look for Piers or Jonathan PWS explanations. Has anyone seen anything rational?

[john pike]

STORM WARNING: NOAA forecasters have downgraded the chances of a geomagnetic storm on June 9th to 20%. The disturbance, if it occurs, would be in response to a glancing blow from the CME of June 7th (see below). High-latitude sky watchers should remain alert for auroras

http://spaceweather.com/

[Chris.R]

Out of intrest, I think I may have heard the radio wave atmospherics from the sola impact last night starting around 2100. I was listening out for lightning sferics and could hear frequent click like sounds. It couldn't have been a storm, because the clicks were every half a second or so. I may be rong but just thought I'd post that here.

Out of intrest, I think I may have heard the radio wave atmospherics from the sola impact last night starting around 2100. I was listening out for lightning sferics and could hear frequent click like sounds. It couldn't have been a storm, because the clicks were every half a second or so. I may be rong but just thought I'd post that here.

[john pike]

WAITING FOR IMPACT: The CME from Tuesday's magnificent flare still hasn't reached Earth. NOAA forecasters haven't given up, though. They estimate a 20% to 30% chance that the cloud may yet deliver a glancing blow to our planet's magnetic field and spark geomagnetic storms during the next 24 hours. High latitude sky watchers should remain alert for auroras

http://spaceweather.com/

http://www2.nict.go.jp/y/y223/simulation/realtime/index.html

Edited June 10, 2011 by john pike

[jonboy]

Laymans sunspot count has just called 3 days spotless which is unusal for this stage of the cycle. Equally F10 flux is again below 90

[mettalfabrik]

there is some debate as to wether cycle24 has/or will by 2012 peak ,this is done by measurement of the solar polar fields, yet another spanner in the works

more info in the link

http://www.solen.info/solar/polarfields/polar.html

[picog]

there is some debate as to wether cycle24 has/or will by 2012 peak ,this is done by measurement of the solar polar fields, yet another spanner in the works

more info in the link

http://www.solen.inf...elds/polar.html

If that's the case, it will prove to be a very quiet cycle.

[Nath]

Article on the register about a possible long solar minimum.

http://www.theregister.co.uk/2011/06/14/ice_age/

[jethro]

Also, more information here:

http://www.space.com/11960-fading-sunspots-slower-solar-activity-solar-cycle.html

[Summer Sun]

Any truth in this or are the Daily Star going over the top try to worry us?

http://www.dailystar.co.uk/news/view/196807/Britain-to-be-battered-by-space-storm/

[Backtrack]

Astronomers are warning that solar flares could knock out computers, satellites and the national gri

I think they are just warning of what could happen if a powerful one did hit, rather than one is on the way.

Absolutely nothing on http://www.spaceweather.com/

I'm sure they love to make things up, I really do.

Also Gavin.... nothing on BBC news.

[shuggee]

Nat Geo article on sun cycles and the latest predictions etc:

Sun Headed Into Hibernation, Solar Studies Predict

http://on.natgeo.com/lUdXt4

[john pike]

INCOMING: Magnetic fields above sunspot complex 1236 erupted during the early hours of June 21st, producing a C7-class solar flare and a full-halo CME. The expanding cloud is heading almost directly toward Earth:

UPDATE: According to analysts at the GSFC Space Weather Lab, the CME left the sun traveling 800 km/s and it will reach Earth on June 23rd at 23:22 UT (plus or minus 7 hours). A very cool 3D heliospheric model shows the cloud sweeping past our planet. The impact is expected to trigger a G2-class (Kp=6) geomagnetic storm.

High-latitude sky watchers should be alert for auroras on June 23rd and 24. The season favors southern hemisphere observers, where solstice skies are winter-dark

http://spaceweather.com/

have a look at video on there

is the sun losing or gaining strength ?