Solar and Aurora Activity Chat

[kar999]

Complete rubbish, I expect auroras overhead across Scotland, perhaps even North England. As a result, the aurora should become visible on the horizon as far south as the midlands.

No need to shoot the messenger!!!!

I was only posting the downgrade as reported by NOAA (Official US space weather bureau).

The first interplanetary shock, driven by the CME from Sunday, is expected any time. Soon thereafter, the shock from Monday evening's R3/CME is due. Look for G1-G2 (and maybe periods of G3 if the following shock compresses and enhances the CME magnetic field). Geomagnetic storming should persist 24- 48 hours

Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be predominately quiet on day one (February 17). An increase to unsettled to active conditions, with a chance for minor storm periods is expected late on day one into day two (18 February). The increased activity is forecast due to the expected arrival of the CME associated with the X2 flare that occurred on 15/0156Z. Day three (19 February) is expected to be quiet to active as the disturbance subsides.

In my long past experience, to see anything decent in the Midlands one or all of the following needs to happen KP index needs to getting up to 9. Bz tilting South. Strong solar wind of 600+km/s

All too often here, even in good conditions, a green glow on the northern horizon is all that is visible.

.... and fianlly two vital last things. Clear skies and activity happening during the hours of darkness!

EDIT: This site is worth a look for all the major indicators.

http://www.solarcycle24.com/

METO forecast cloud cover doesnt bode well:

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_irsat.html

It was rare to see the national news media coverage on visible UK auroara today but as usual it was a tad overhyped. Goodness knows what the news will be like when we return to seeing flares much much bigger than X2 again!

Edited February 17, 2011 by kar999

[kar999]

According to the link above, some sources suggest the cme MAY have missed earth altogether.

[GeorgeWX]

According to the link above, some sources suggest the cme MAY have missed earth altogether.

A CME struck the ace satellite just before 1245am, it has met earths magnetosphere in the last 5 minutes

Edited February 18, 2011 by GeorgeWX

[Mesosphere]

http://www.spacew.com/ , possible mid latitude aurora's at the moment , shame it's not night time!. KP currently at 5 (storm)

[Snowyowl9]

Just read about this in one of today`s paper,tomorrow night looks clear in the west/SW.

[GeorgeWX]

I suppose I should apologise if I caused you offence Kar, instead of simply saying your statement was nonsense, I maybe should have explained the reason for the inaccuracy with your comment.

Particularly this.

DOWNGRADED

Unless you are way 'up North in the Shetlands or Orkneys

Just because spaceweather.com say, 'expect high latitude aurora', that does not mean that only the orkney's and locations north of that point will see activity. Technically speaking... low lat = 0-30 degrees, mid lat 30-60 degrees and high lat 60-90 degrees.

If spaceweather say, 'mid latitude aurora', then they really are putting their neck on the line, that implies aurora as far south as Spain and southern Germany. A super rare event only caused by the most severe solar storms, definitely KP9+.

It's for that reason that you shouldn't regard the phrase 'high latitude' with such weight as to be certain only the orkneys will see aurora.

As I expected the ongoing geo-storm has peaked at kp6, but Canada and the USA got the best of this one and we missed out due to the timing of the first CME arrival. If things happened a few hours earlier aurora would be visible as far south as Yorkshire. (obviously cloud permitting)

A second CME struck the ace satellite at 1040am (which surprised many) and disruptive storming continued, It appears to be waning, but there are so many uncertainties as solar activity was very active 3-5 days ago and this high level of activity continues. There is a slight possibility for what I would coin as 'mid-latitude' (59N and southwards) aurora in the days ahead, there is even a small chance that the current geomagnetic disruption will pep up towards this evening.

During the course of this week there have been literally dozens of C-class flares, at least five M-class flares and the X-class flare.

Edited February 18, 2011 by GeorgeWX

[kar999]

No offence taken.

It was a combination of the original forecast expections and the subsequent typical British media hype of "Aurora visible over Britain" that then made me post the downgrade in bold when NOAA downgraded. I know from experience that it has to be a really major event to see anything half decent at my latitude. Aurora were indeed visible in the UK last night in N Ireland but sadly we had cloud and with only a G1 not G3 storm and KP of just 5 it was never going to happen for me.

I know this map is only an approximate indicator but I've found it not too bad as a rough guide.

The real time aurora ovals are much better.... of which this is just one of many, including the ACE one that you posted.

Bring on a few good old X9-12 flares... that should liven things up a bit down here!

Edited February 18, 2011 by kar999

[GeorgeWX]

The map you posted of kp values and their southern extent is accurate, though I believe that it would only be valid around the time of local midnight when the aurora is at its strongest. It also makes no reference to horizon aurora and it's worth pointing that out.

If you are located at, say, Newcastle, the time is 12am or thereabouts and a geo-storm measuring KP7 was occurring, then the full sky from west to east and 90 degrees above your head would be filled with streaks or curtains of visible auroral rays. Therefore, an overhead aurora. At that exact same moment, Onlookers located as far as 400 miles south would see the same aurora, but lower down in the northern horizon.

The same 400 mile 'horizon aurora' rule applies regardless of the kp value.

Here's an image that illustrates this, This example is during a kp5 disturbance at local midnight.

The single green line represents the most southerly point where you can see this aurora on the northern horizon

Edited February 18, 2011 by GeorgeWX

[frogesque]

Yep, event was overhyped. Kp just managed to reach 5. Nowhere near strong enough to give a good show, never mind able to penetrate an easterly haar off the North Sea

Region 1161 does have some promise as it gathers activity and rotates for a pot at Earth. Clear skies, a good X rated CME and a nightime arrival is all we need

[frogesque]

The map you posted of kp values and their southern extent is accurate, though I believe that it would only be valid around the time of local midnight when the aurora is at its strongest. It also makes no reference to horizon aurora and it's worth pointing that out.

If you are located at, say, Newcastle, the time is 12am or thereabouts and a geo-storm measuring KP7 was occurring, then the full sky from west to east and 90 degrees above your head would be filled with streaks or curtains of visible auroral rays. Therefore, an overhead aurora. At that exact same moment, Onlookers located as far as 400 miles south would see the same aurora, but lower down in the northern horizon.

The same 400 mile 'horizon aurora' rule applies regardless of the kp value.

I have witnessed a full corona event (spectacular!) here in Fife. It was early evening - about 7.00 pm and seemed to have been a localised substorm. The auroa faded to the horizon but later grew again to a 'normal' midnight event eventually colapsing over about 15mins in a glorious blaze of colour.

Simply a case of right place, right time, and a sparkly clear frosty, moonless night.

[GeorgeWX]

I think the ace satellite might have detected another incoming CME within the last 5 minutes.

Apologies if I'm wrong.

The ace satellite is 1 hour upstream so a delay before any earth disturbance is expected

Yep, event was overhyped. Kp just managed to reach 5. Nowhere near strong enough to give a good show, never mind able to penetrate an easterly haar off the North Sea

Region 1161 does have some promise as it gathers activity and rotates for a pot at Earth. Clear skies, a good X rated CME and a nightime arrival is all we need

The geo-storm peaked at kp6, I believe you are looking at these figures which are averaged over a period of three hours. See here

Edited February 18, 2011 by GeorgeWX

[frogesque]

I think the ace satellite might have detected another incoming CME within the last 5 minutes.

Apologies if I'm wrong.

Probably me exploding! http://forum.netweather.tv/public/style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/laugh.gif

Just looked out - another grey blanket brightly illumanted by the orange glow of sodium streetlights.

[Flipflop]

Not sure if you guys are using the link below but it shows the effect of the flares hitting the earth in real time just need to refresh as often as you like and its going up as i type.

Real-time Magnetosphere Simulation

[Snowyowl9]

Is there a link for an archive as it would be interesting to see.

Something like March 31st 2001 only gave a brief aurora.

[GeorgeWX]

Is there a link for an archive as it would be interesting to see.

Something like March 31st 2001 only gave a brief aurora.

It was a few years before I took an interest on the subject but for me that date really sticks out as I've read a lot of literature about solar activity during the max of cycle 23.

What would be most notable around the date you mention is AR9393, a complex, monster sized sunspot region. This region was responsible for a chart topping X20 flare. The eruption occured just as the sunspot disappeared over the sun's western limb on 2/4/01, so earth was spared by that particular event, but a few days earlier there was a number of earth directed CME's, the largest produced by an X1 flare. The result of this incredibly dense, earth directed cloud of plasma was a severe geo-storm measuring kp9 on the 31/3/01.

BBC 30/3/01

nasa

spaceweather archive 31/3

Developing sunspot

video of x20 flare erupting from suns limb, 2/4/01

Image of the aurora over Nice, France 01/4/01

Image of the aurora over Mainz, Germany 31/3/01

Edited February 19, 2011 by GeorgeWX

[Snowyowl9]

Thanks very much for that link George.

I saw the next one on april 11th the same year and I havn`t seen any since then.

I keep a lookout spring time.

First one I saw was in March 1986 one of the best I`ve seen,when it was solar min looking at the graphs further above amazing.

We are well overdue.

I didn`t see the 2003 autumn one.

[GeorgeWX]

Thanks very much for that link George.

I saw the next one on april 11th the same year and I havn`t seen any since then.

I keep a lookout spring time.

First one I saw was in March 1986 one of the best I`ve seen,when it was solar min looking at the graphs further above amazing.

We are well overdue.

I didn`t see the 2003 autumn one.

You're right, we are well overdue, this spike in solar activity has caught a lot of people by surprise, who knows what the next month or two will bring.

SFI (solar flux index) broke a new 'solar cycle 24' record yesterday at 125. A very good sign that things are really hotting up.

There isn't much data going back to 1986 that is easy to access online, I do have some paperwork that lists the kp values of geomagnetic storms back as far as 1937.

In the whole year of 86, which was a quiet one for solar activity, there were 2 'mega-storms' (Events that measure KP9 on the geomagnetic richter scale).

First one happened on the 8th February and the second which was a shorter duration storm occurred on the 12th of September.

Do those dates bring back any memories for you?

Edit: Sorry I've just noticed you said March 86...

Nothing notable happened during March unless possibly you were at a high latitude location. (far north of Scotland etc..)

Edited February 19, 2011 by GeorgeWX

[Snowyowl9]

You're right, we are well overdue, this spike in solar activity has caught a lot of people by surprise, who knows what the next month or two will bring.

SFI (solar flux index) broke a new 'solar cycle 24' record yesterday at 125. A very good sign that things are really hotting up.

There isn't much data going back to 1986 that is easy to access online, I do have some paperwork that lists the kp values of geomagnetic storms back as far as 1937.

In the whole year of 86, which was a quiet one for solar activity, there were 2 'mega-storms' (Events that measure KP9 on the geomagnetic richter scale).

First one happened on the 8th February and the second which was a shorter duration storm occurred on the 12th of September.

Do those dates bring back any memories for you?

Edit: Sorry I've just noticed you said March 86...

Nothing notable happened during March unless possibly you were at a high latitude location. (far north of Scotland etc..)

I thought it was spring,it wasn`t feb as I don`t remember any snow about which we had all of feb..

So it could`ve been september,It was certainly that year and at the time I didn`t know what was happening.

I saw other faint displays back then too one night to the west can`t remember when,a bit later it was cloudier after a stormy day.

[GeorgeWX]

The only other time of the whole year that there was elevated geomagnetic activity was between the 2nd and the 6th of May 86, (a very long duration for stormy conditions).

It wasn't a 'kp9' mega-storm like what you seen in 2001, but would be sufficient to see activity possibly 40-50 degrees above the north horizon, perhaps even brief periods where it was higher. The peak rating on 3 of the 5 days reached kp7.

Of course I'm assuming that you were located in Wales at the time of the 86 sighting.

[Snowyowl9]

The only other time of the whole year that there was elevated geomagnetic activity was between the 2nd and the 6th of May 86,

Of course I'm assuming that you were located in Wales at the time of the 86 sighting.

It was bright but all to the north mainly green.

I`ve been looking at some weather archives on those 2 dates and both days were very cold with a greenland high even september I remember it was cold we had an open fire,HP was very close on the sept chart so it was totally clear as I remember,so it could of been either of those dates come to think about it..

Cheers for looking.

[mettalfabrik]

Official Space Weather Advisory issued by NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center

Boulder, Colorado, USA

SPACE WEATHER ADVISORY OUTLOOK #11- 9

2011 February 22 at 12:53 p.m. MST (2011 February 22 1953 UTC)

**** SPACE WEATHER OUTLOOK ****

Summary For February 14-20

R1 (Minor) radio blackouts were observed on 14, 16 and 18 February along

with R2 (Moderate) radio blackouts on 15 and 18 February. This activity

was due to solar flares from Active Regions 1158, 1161 and 1162.

Outlook For February 23-March 1

R1 (Minor) radio blackouts are possible through 25 February.

Data used to provide space weather services are contributed by NOAA,

USAF, NASA, NSF, USGS, the International Space Environment Services

and other observatories, universities, and institutions. More

information is available at SWPC's Web site http://swpc.noaa.gov

[GeorgeWX]

Early heads up for a spell of elevated geomagnetic activity starting around the 3rd/4th of March.

We have a very large coronal hole that will become geo-effective around 28/02, The last 2 rotations this coronal hole has not disappointed with kp values of 5 and 6 respectively. The images on Stereo-B show us that it has retained it's size during the last rotation

There is also a very active region just to the east of said coronal hole so I would anticipate periods of minor storming sometime between 3/3 and 4/3 from the C.H and maybe some more if the active region hits us with a sneeze.

Edited February 23, 2011 by GeorgeWX

[drgl]

Apologies as this is not my field, has the sun now woken up?

[GeorgeWX]

Apologies as this is not my field, has the sun now woken up?

The general consensus among the experts is that even during very quiet solar cycles, short periods of high activity are to be expected.

Whether this is a short lived spike or a more prolonged spell of higher solar activity remains to be seen. All should become much clearer in the next couple of months.

M3.5 flare from the active region emerging on the eastern limb @ 730am, lovely image.

Edited February 24, 2011 by GeorgeWX

[drgl]

Thanks George I'm kinda hoping we get a sustained quiet period that matches the little ice age so we can see if the sun really does play a much bigger part than the climate experts seem to credit.

Edited February 24, 2011 by drgl