Solar and Aurora Activity Chat

[picog]

I think his original prediction was for cycle 24 to be the biggest, most active cycle for decades.

Found the original prediction....

Dec. 21, 2006: Evidence is mounting: the next solar cycle is going to be a big one.

Solar cycle 24, due to peak in 2010 or 2011 "looks like its going to be one of the most intense cycles since record-keeping began almost 400 years ago," says solar physicist David Hathaway of the Marshall Space Flight Center. He and colleague Robert Wilson presented this conclusion last week at the American Geophysical Union meeting in San Francisco.

http://science.nasa..../21dec_cycle24/

Thanks Jethro. Wow, based on events to date, not an accurate prediction! I wonder if he's looked into his predictive methods (I'm sure he must have) and published anything about what did or might have gone wrong?

[pyrotech]

Here are the original charts which i kept as they changed

If first one was proved right on timing we are at max now, that would be interesting.

What this proves is we a along way from understanding our nearest star.

Edited January 23, 2011 by pyrotech

[Crepuscular Ray]

Tell that to Piers Corbyn (or is this the wrong thread?).

[picog]

Sun still pretty sleepy, and sunspot activity still much lower than anticipated

http://www.solarcycle24.com/sunspots.htm

[GeorgeWX]

Well I had high hopes that a recent surge in solar activity would produce at least one earth directed CME courtesy of sunspots 1147 and 1149.

Rolling back to mid January there was a notable explosion on the farside of the sun, heres a gif movie of that event. This sunspot group came into view around 3 days later and immediately went quiet, travelling across the earth facing side of the sun the sunspot group was large enough to see with the naked eye during sunset, but no eruptions took place during it's transit.

Then yesterday just as the sunspot group was heading out of sight this happened. Multiple C class flares with an M1 taking centre stage. None of the eruptions are earth directed.

Sods law isn't it!

However, I am watching the emerging coronal hole with interest, it could be a dark horse. (emphasis on could)

It is an amalgamation of ch431 and 432, during the last solar rotation 431 was the main contributor to a planetery k index of 5 and offered the best auroral display since May last year. In November 2010 ch432 (then labelled ch427) was responsible for one of the fastest recorded coronal hole wind streams in 3 years at 800km/s+

Hopefully something interesting will come this way!

Edited January 29, 2011 by GeorgeWX

[picog]

Well I had high hopes that a recent surge in solar activity would produce at least one earth directed CME courtesy of sunspots 1147 and 1149.

Rolling back to mid January there was a notable explosion on the farside of the sun, heres a gif movie of that event. This sunspot group came into view around 3 days later and immediately went quiet, travelling across the earth facing side of the sun the sunspot group was large enough to see with the naked eye during sunset, but no eruptions took place during it's transit.

Then yesterday just as the sunspot group was heading out of sight this happened. Multiple C class flares with an M1 taking centre stage. None of the eruptions are earth directed.

Sods law isn't it!

However, I am watching the emerging coronal hole with interest, it could be a dark horse. (emphasis on could)

It is an amalgamation of ch431 and 432, during the last solar rotation 431 was the main contributor to a planetery k index of 5 and offered the best auroral display since May last year. In November 2010 ch432 (then labelled ch427) was responsible for one of the fastest recorded coronal hole wind streams in 3 years at 800km/s+

Hopefully something interesting will come this way!

Are the CMEs predictable in the sense of being able to forecast one will happen? Or perhaps it's more "wait and see"?

[GeorgeWX]

Are the CMEs predictable in the sense of being able to forecast one will happen? Or perhaps it's more "wait and see"?

The short answer is no, CME's and solar flares are impossible to forecast. The odds of one or the other occurring rise with the number of sunspots on the sun's surface, but that's not to say that sunspots are solely responsible for producing cme's, they are however a good indicator of current solar activity.

[jonboy]

The sun continues itsslumber with another spotless day being called by 'the laymans sun spot count'. The F10 flux remains exceeding low at 77 to 80 with the odd blip almost as the sun snores and solar wind speed is also stubornly low. If it doesn't wake up soon what can expect next winter i wonder!!

[GeorgeWX]

However, I am watching the emerging coronal hole with interest, it could be a dark horse. (emphasis on could)

It is an amalgamation of ch431 and 432, during the last solar rotation 431 was the main contributor to a planetery k index of 5 and offered the best auroral display since May last year. In November 2010 ch432 (then labelled ch427) was responsible for one of the fastest recorded coronal hole wind streams in 3 years at 800km/s+

Hopefully something interesting will come this way!

[jonboy]

We enter day 5 of this present spotless run. Highly unusal for this time within a cycle. Everything from flux to solar wind speed is very quiet. Is this what we can expect for the rest of the cycle?

[picog]

An increase in solar activity in the past 24 hours, with several new sunspots numbered. The interesting spot that could produce a flare is disappearing around the back of the sun, of course!

[GeorgeWX]

An increase in solar activity in the past 24 hours, with several new sunspots numbered. The interesting spot that could produce a flare is disappearing around the back of the sun, of course!

Definitely an understatement, A couple of days ago I was thinking 'great, we're back to the sort of solar activity we had in Summer last year before it all went silent'.

Now I'm thinking it's way more than that, 10.7 flux is at 95.6sfu, the highest I've seen in a long time, and the sun has burst out in spots like a 12 year old kid. Great because I've spent too long analysing coronal holes, scraping the bottom of the bowl so to speak.

I now think all the sunspots on the earth side of the sun merit watching as growth at the moment is substantial. Easily M-class and dare I say... X class flare potential.

Edited February 13, 2011 by GeorgeWX

[GeorgeWX]

Easily M-class and dare I say... X class flare potential.

M6.6 flare at 1740pm, (almost the largest flare in cycle 24)

Edited February 13, 2011 by GeorgeWX

[Crepuscular Ray]

Now that's what I call a sunspot!

[LeeKay]

Aurora Sky Station is showing activity again @ 21:04hrs

Be great to be up there now - but i cant, so lets be content with the brilliant HD images:

http://www.auroraskystation.se/livecamera/

[frogesque]

M6.6 flare at 1740pm, (almost the largest flare in cycle 24)

Interesting! Maybe some mid-lat auroral activity due at last.

Time to charge the camera batteries http://forum.netweather.tv/public/style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/laugh.gif

Edited February 13, 2011 by frogesque

[GeorgeWX]

Interesting! Maybe some mid-lat auroral activity due at last.

Yes very much possible, So far NOAA has confirmed that the M6 flare came from sunspot 1158 which is in a perfect earth facing position, they also confirm that there is a CME associated with this event. Lasco C2 seems to be detecting the beginning of a full halo CME though in my opinion it looks rather faint. It won't be until the morning before we have a better picture of what is coming our way.

Meanwhile the chances of more large solar flares remains high during the next 24-48 hours.

Edited February 14, 2011 by GeorgeWX

[picog]

Yes very much possible, So far NOAA has confirmed that the M6 flare came from sunspot 1158 which is in a perfect earth facing position, they also confirm that there is a CME associated with this event. Lasco C2 seems to be detecting the beginning of a full halo CME though in my opinion it looks rather faint. It won't be until the morning before we have a better picture of what is coming our way.

Meanwhile the chances of more large solar flares remains high during the next 24-48 hours.

Do you think there is a chance we could see something in the night sky tonight?

[GeorgeWX]

Do you think there is a chance we could see something in the night sky tonight?

It normally takes between 36 and 72 hours for a CME to travel from the sun to earth, This particular CME is expected to arrive tomorrow at the earliest.

Lasco c3 images show a very faint CME as I suspected last night, not good news for aurora hunters south of the border. We will see a geomagnetic disturbance associated with this event to some degree but will likely only be to higher latitudes.

However more significant flares are likely in the hours ahead as solar activity remains ramped up.

Yesterday's 10.7 flux came in at 107sfu. I think this is the highest recording I have witnessed in 5 years of taking an interest on the subject. It is a sure sign of high solar activity and a world away from what we were experiencing only a couple of months ago!

Edited February 14, 2011 by GeorgeWX

[karyo]

Yesterday's 10.7 flux came in at 107sfu. I think this is the highest recording I have witnessed in 5 years of taking an interest on the subject. It is a sure sign of high solar activity and a world away from what we were experiencing only a couple of months ago!

Unfortunately, that's a big increase in activity! For a fan of the quiet sun like me, today is a bad day!

Karyo

[Gray-Wolf]

Maybe the 'number' of spots is not what the 'deal' is? maybe it's their potency?

The past cycle predictions have gone from mega high number of spots at solar max to below average number of spots at solar max, like 'canes maybe the little ones won't make it into spots but the ones that do will become mega spots?

All that matters is their potency and orientation of field?

Maybe a bad couple of years ahead to be an 'electric' society?

Edited February 14, 2011 by Gray-Wolf

[Crepuscular Ray]

It was bound to happen at some point - just bear in mind if you're one of those who think that low solar activity equals 20-foot snow-drifts for bits of the UK, it's less likely now given that we're heading towards spring and the La Nina is dropping back.

"like 'canes maybe the little ones won't make it into spots but the ones that do will become mega spots?" Can you go into more detail on that please - I know I'm ignorant about such things, but it means nothing as it stands as far as I can see"

[GeorgeWX]

Just back in after viewing a moderate (somewhat unexpected) auroral display, the missus said it was the best valentines shes ever had!!!

Big news folks, around an hour ago we had an X2 flare erupt from earth facing sunspot 1158. It will be a couple more hours before we know if there is a CME associated with this event.

This is by far the biggest solar flare of cycle 24 and the biggest recorded solar flare in over 4 years.

edit: The X2 flare appears to have ejected a full halo CME. Strong mid-lat auroras are likely from an event of this magnitude.

Edited February 15, 2011 by GeorgeWX

[Gray-Wolf]

"like 'canes maybe the little ones won't make it into spots but the ones that do will become mega spots?" Can you go into more detail on that please - I know I'm ignorant about such things, but it means nothing as it stands as far as I can see"

Sorry C.R.!

With a warming planet the number of Hurricanes is now expected to reduce (higher shear environment?) but those that survive formation will evolve into larger cat 4 or cat 5's. If the number of sun spots falls away it may be due to a more 'energetic sun' below the surface only allowing for the likes of 1158 to emerge(?) keeping the sunspot numbers low but their potential for impacts high (as last night X2 highlights)

I'm still getting to grips with our understanding of the sun and so the polar swaps and sub surface action is still not very clear to me!

[MR EXTREMES]

absolutely the sun is a lil more alive now x2.2 look to the skys thursday or wed night even here in the uk first time i might see a live event like this.

as for gray wolfs idear not sure wat hurricaines have to do with the subject at hand.

but simply we still are well down on late 90s and 2000s sun activity.