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Posted
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Hot sunny , cold and snowy, thunderstorms
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset

    The sun is blank, been a long time coming.

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    Just a few pics from early this morning at West Sands, St. Andrews  First one was 100iso eq @ f1.8 and 10 sec exposure, strong moonlight about midnight with the faintest of hint of an aurora.

    From Salon on the Isle Of Rum & The Isle Of Lewis tonight. Credit; Martin Keivers and Emma Mitchell.  

    More shots here from Scotland last night. Fingers crossed again tonight as there is another predicted Kp7 ☺

    Posted Images

    Posted
  • Location: Midlands
  • Weather Preferences: Very Cold, Very Snowy
  • Location: Midlands

    <br />The sun is blank, been a long time coming.<br />

    <br /><br /><br />

    Will be fascinating to see what comes next - thought that actvity may continue to increase - what card will the sun play?

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    Posted
  • Location: Somerset midway between Bath&Wells. Mendips 200m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and lots of it or warm and sunny, no mediocre dross
  • Location: Somerset midway between Bath&Wells. Mendips 200m asl

    New prediction from NASA for cycle 24 issued yesterday.

    "Current prediction for the next sunspot cycle maximum gives a smoothed sunspot number maximum of about 64 in July of 2013."

    That's a huge revision downwards from their original prediction, almost half, if memory serves correct. Can we have any more faith in this one?

    http://solarscience.msfc.nasa.gov/predict.shtml

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    Posted
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......
  • Weather Preferences: Hot & Sunny, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......

    I'm begging to think it's quality and not quantity that count's Jethro (I'm sure you'll understand:blush: ) and that ,from now on, every Sunspot max will bring a threat that we didn't face before our electric/satellite revolution?

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    Posted
  • Location: Somerset midway between Bath&Wells. Mendips 200m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and lots of it or warm and sunny, no mediocre dross
  • Location: Somerset midway between Bath&Wells. Mendips 200m asl

    Not if the max is that low. They've already said they expect cycle 25 to be very low too so I shouldn't worry too much about the electric/satellite revolution.

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    Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

    New prediction from NASA for cycle 24 issued yesterday.

    "Current prediction for the next sunspot cycle maximum gives a smoothed sunspot number maximum of about 64 in July of 2013."

    That's a huge revision downwards from their original prediction, almost half, if memory serves correct. Can we have any more faith in this one?

    http://solarscience.msfc.nasa.gov/predict.shtml

    Probably not although counting specs will help towards it.

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    Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey

    I'm begging to think it's quality and not quantity that count's Jethro (I'm sure you'll understand:blush: ) and that ,from now on, every Sunspot max will bring a threat that we didn't face before our electric/satellite revolution?

    GW, it simply doesn't work that way...so no

    BFTP

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    Posted
  • Location: portsmouth uk
  • Weather Preferences: extremes
  • Location: portsmouth uk

    I'm begging to think it's quality and not quantity that count's Jethro (I'm sure you'll understand:blush: ) and that ,from now on, every Sunspot max will bring a threat that we didn't face before our electric/satellite revolution?

    was a comment i expected gw.

    and trust me all those that slated the ones that predicted this minimum and the next cycle is exected to be even lower.

    this is one hell of revision by mr nasa but was longtime coming.

    looking forward to seeing what happens next if the sun gives out a nice big flare you never know may take out the arctic ice satilite lol.

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    Posted
  • Location: Somerset midway between Bath&Wells. Mendips 200m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and lots of it or warm and sunny, no mediocre dross
  • Location: Somerset midway between Bath&Wells. Mendips 200m asl

    I've found the original predictions for cycle 24, as you can see, there's quite a large change since then.

    http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/SolarCycle/SC24/May_24_2007_table.pdf

    http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/SolarCycle/SC24/index.html

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    Posted
  • Location: just behind Epsom Racecourse and the center of York
  • Location: just behind Epsom Racecourse and the center of York

    For the third day the sun is blank with little sign of any activity to note. The sun continues to bump along the bottom.

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    Posted
  • Location: Erith. SE London/kent 40m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Erith. SE London/kent 40m asl

    For the third day the sun is blank with little sign of any activity to note. The sun continues to bump along the bottom.

    Indeed, how many days can this last I wonder? Laymans count still looking very flat as well. :good:

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    Posted
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Hot sunny , cold and snowy, thunderstorms
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset

    4 day's blank, and old sunspot 1106 as rotated into view, but it is currently spotless.

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    Posted
  • Location: Tunbridge Wells, Kent
  • Location: Tunbridge Wells, Kent

    45 days blank so far in 2010.

    I'm pretty sure that this far past a minimum we should be looking at virtually no days spotless which points to a very dud cycle indeed.

    Also the solar flux hasn't really got out of the 90s. It reached almost 240 in 2001!

    Even Cycle 5 which was a Dalton cycle is starting to look healthy when pattern matched against cycle 24.

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    Posted
  • Location: Sth Staffs/Shrops 105m/345' & NW Snowdonia 219m/719'
  • Location: Sth Staffs/Shrops 105m/345' & NW Snowdonia 219m/719'

    Not if the max is that low. They've already said they expect cycle 25 to be very low too so I shouldn't worry too much about the electric/satellite revolution.

    It only takes one massive X Class flare and an earthward facing CME to make those sateliites and national grid transformers go pop!

    Some of the biggest flares have occured at any time of the solar cycle.. even near minima.

    As the unpredictablility of this cycle shows, the sun doesn't always play by the rules.

    Edited by kar999
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    Posted
  • Location: portsmouth uk
  • Weather Preferences: extremes
  • Location: portsmouth uk

    some dont find this cycle to be unpredictable some predicted this very well and now we have them all onboard including nasa saying that things are set to continue this way with cycle25 even lower.

    but x class flare is a possiblity and in a minimum is always a risk but hey exciting things going on.

    net weather is buzzing right now with alsorts happening this is why net weather is the best site around the net.

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    Posted
  • Location: Sth Staffs/Shrops 105m/345' & NW Snowdonia 219m/719'
  • Location: Sth Staffs/Shrops 105m/345' & NW Snowdonia 219m/719'

    some dont find this cycle to be unpredictable some predicted this very well ......

    ...... and many of the recognised "experts" in this field have changed their minds more than their underpants in past 2 or 3 years. :whistling:

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    Posted
  • Location: Irlam
  • Location: Irlam

    Here's a collection of predictions I collected for the coming solar maxima that I posted last year.

    David Hathaway has not come out of this very well.

    Firstly he predicts the next solar cycle would be a strong one

    NASA March 2006

    "This week researchers announced that a storm is coming--the most intense solar maximum in fifty years. The prediction comes from a team led by Mausumi Dikpati of the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR). "The next sunspot cycle will be 30% to 50% stronger than the previous one," she says. If correct, the years ahead could produce a burst of solar activity second only to the historic Solar Max of 1958."

    "Like most experts in the field, Hathaway has confidence in the conveyor belt model and agrees with Dikpati that the next solar maximum should be a doozy. But he disagrees with one point. Dikpati's forecast puts Solar Max at 2012. Hathaway believes it will arrive sooner, in 2010 or 2011."

    "he says. "I expect to see the first sunspots of the next cycle appear in late 2006 or 2007—and Solar Max to be underway by 2010 or 2011.""

    NASA March 2006

    That forecast is what provoked Dr. Hathaway at NASA's Marshall Space Flight Center to bet Dr. Gilman that solar cycle 24 was going to come on quickly in 2006 because it was going to be so strong - perhaps the strongest solar cycle on record.

    NASA Dec 21, 2006

    "Dec. 21, 2006: Evidence is mounting: the next solar cycle is going to be a big one."

    "Solar cycle 24, due to peak in 2010 or 2011 "looks like its going to be one of the most intense cycles since record-keeping began almost 400 years ago," says solar physicist David Hathaway of the Marshall Space Flight Center. He and colleague Robert Wilson presented this conclusion last week at the American Geophysical Union meeting in San Francisco

    According to their analysis, the next Solar Maximum should peak around 2010 with a sunspot number of 160 plus or minus 25. This would make it one of the strongest solar cycles of the past fifty years—which is to say, one of the strongest in recorded history."

    Dec 14, 2007 NASA

    It may not look like much, but "this patch of magnetism could be a sign of the next solar cycle," says solar physicist David Hathaway of the Marshall Space Flight Center. For more than a year, the sun has been experiencing a lull in activity, marking the end of Solar Cycle 23, which peaked with many furious storms in 2000--2003. "Solar minimum is upon us," he says.

    NOAA April 25, 2007

    "The next 11-year cycle of solar storms will most likely start next March [2008] and peak in late 2011 or mid-2012 – up to a year later than expected – according to a forecast issued today by NOAA’s Space Environment Center in coordination with an international panel of solar experts"

    NASA July 11, 2008

    "The sun is behaving normally. So says NASA solar physicist David Hathaway."

    "There have been some reports lately that Solar Minimum is lasting longer than it should. That's not true. The ongoing lull in sunspot number is well within historic norms for the solar cycle."

    "some observers are questioning the length of the ongoing minimum, now slogging through its 3rd year."

    "It does seem like it's taking a long time," allows Hathaway, "but I think we're just forgetting how long a solar minimum can last."

    November 7, 2008, NASA

    "After two-plus years of few sunspots, even fewer solar flares, and a generally eerie calm, the sun is finally showing signs of life. "I think solar minimum is behind us," says sunspot forecaster David Hathaway of the NASA Marshall Space Flight Center."

    "From January to September, the sun produced a total of 22 sunspot groups; 82% of them belonged to old Cycle 23. October added five more; but this time 80% belonged to Cycle 24. The tables have turned. Even with its flurry of sunspots,the October sun was mostly blank, with zero sunspots on 20 of the month's 31 days.

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    Posted
  • Location: Erith. SE London/kent 40m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Erith. SE London/kent 40m asl

    With regards to the record solar MAX that peaked in 1958, it occurred to me that the UK had some of its most severe winters of the 20th Century around that time, 57/58, 61/62 and of course the infamous 62/63 spring to mind...Kind of contradicts the link there of high sunspot activity and milder Western European Winters a bit don't it? mmm :cc_confused:

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    Posted
  • Location: portsmouth uk
  • Weather Preferences: extremes
  • Location: portsmouth uk

    With regards to the record solar MAX that peaked in 1958, it occurred to me that the UK had some of its most severe winters of the 20th Century around that time, 57/58, 61/62 and of course the infamous 62/63 spring to mind...Kind of contradicts the link there of high sunspot activity and milder Western European Winters a bit don't it? mmm :cc_confused:

    sorry dont agree the strongest solar activity has been in the last coulpe of decades must also remember earth temps were lower then after we were coming out of the mini ice age so this would explain this theory.

    1963 is a winter that many jump apon,

    but imagine the winters in the 1800s and 1700s,

    i would expect they were like 1963 very often and not thought to be anything but normal due to the climate at this time.

    my point is we are in a minimum and its predicted to continue with even mr nasa onboard so will a maunder minimum or dalton minimum happen this is a question that can not be answered unless you have a crystal ball,

    but a 2c drop could bring a chill to the northern hemisphere but due to the warming may not be as servere although the triple effect being talked about may well have an added effect be intresting to see where this take us.

    intresting goal post movement by nasa just goes to show that not everything is predictable.:drinks:

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    Posted
  • Location: Aldborough, North Norfolk
  • Location: Aldborough, North Norfolk

    I've found the original predictions for cycle 24, as you can see, there's quite a large change since then.

    http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/SolarCycle/SC24/May_24_2007_table.pdf

    http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/SolarCycle/SC24/index.html

    Here from WUWT is a blink comparison, notice how the timescale stretches

    Really does show how it's changed. Also from the WUWT article here.

    "But, let us not be too critical of Dr. Hathaway, unlike some scientists we know, he has the integrity and courage to admit when his forecasts and models don’t work, and to revise them in the face of reality."

    post-9318-006562800 1286721871_thumb.gif

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    Posted
  • Location: Somerset midway between Bath&Wells. Mendips 200m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and lots of it or warm and sunny, no mediocre dross
  • Location: Somerset midway between Bath&Wells. Mendips 200m asl

    With regards to the record solar MAX that peaked in 1958, it occurred to me that the UK had some of its most severe winters of the 20th Century around that time, 57/58, 61/62 and of course the infamous 62/63 spring to mind...Kind of contradicts the link there of high sunspot activity and milder Western European Winters a bit don't it? mmm :cc_confused:

    Not really, no, you have to factor in the lag factor - the time/length varies depending upon which research you read but there is unanimous agreement that there is a lag. Five years seems to be an accepted figure by many so if you consider that, and the average length of a cycle being 11 years, what you're reaping weatherwise at Solar max is the result of the previous Solar minimum.

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    Posted
  • Location: Erith. SE London/kent 40m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Erith. SE London/kent 40m asl

    Thanks for your replies on the issue. Well being a snow freak myself I just hope that this current solar minimum leads to a grand solar minumum and a few of the type of extreme Winters that were experienced in the early 19th Century. :cold: brrrrrrr

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    Thanks for your replies on the issue. Well being a snow freak myself I just hope that this current solar minimum leads to a grand solar minumum and a few of the type of extreme Winters that were experienced in the early 19th Century. :cold: brrrrrrr

    sounds good to me snowray

    lets hope for some 1700 style winters

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    Posted
  • Location: Erith. SE London/kent 40m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Erith. SE London/kent 40m asl

    Quite right John, 1700's type Winters would be also very apreciated.

    New region 1112 called by NOAA, still looking very quiet though today.

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