Solar and Aurora Activity Chat

[SteveB]

Looks like the speck has been counted.

In the mean time solar activity remains at ver low levels.

http://daltonsminima.wordpress.com/

[picog]

Hi Snowray,

Not sure to be honest with you. I do know that this particular cycle is certainly different to any cylce observed since the space age.

I think though if we continue blank or almost blank through the Summer, then there is every chance this cycle could be aborted.

Keep an eye on any spots developing in the northern hemisphere, they might belong to cycle25

I don't get how you can "abort the cycle" when it's only just begun — who's doing the aborting, the sun or the people who count the spots? I know the 11 years is only approximate, but has there ever been a cycle of a few years?

Edited April 29, 2010 by picog

[SteveB]

My take on it is, that cycle24 hasn't really got started yet, and if the poles reverse thus spots start appearing which belong to a new cycle then cycle24 becomes aborted.

Far far more complicated that what I have just said, but that's my take on it.

[Mr_Pessimistic]

im certainly no expert on the subject and have only been following sunspot activity for a few years now, so I have not had the experience of watching a new cycle form.

But I would guess that at the start there would be a few spots, then a lull, then a few more, then a lull, and so on, until solar max is reached. This does seem to be what is happening here, such as the period of activity around july last year onwards, then there was a dip, then an increase around the start of the year, which has lasted a bit longer, now another dip, so I fully expect another period of activity to start again reasonably soon which will last a little longer than the previous one, and so on. Although it is very possible that I am wrong and we have just witnessed cycle 24s max, meaning that this cycle would be very short, which I think would be unusual for a cycle with a low number of sunspots as strong cycle = short cycle, weak cycle = long cycle, based on past data anyway.

personally I expect the cycle to peak around 2013 as expected with the average number of spots around 40-50 which is very low, and as many of the current day spots being counted whereas in the past they may not have, this number could be classed as being even lower, possibly very simmilar to the dalton/maunder minimums of past.

So, does this mean, based on recent papers such as the study by livingstone and penn, and the more recent study (i forget by who?), that we will see a number of very low cycles (probably at liest around 3), causing the jet stream to be pushed south of us on average? (and we all know what that means!) personally, I think there is already strong evidence of this happening and I fully expect it to continue.

1947 here we come!

[SteveB]

Micro spot was given a number 1063. It has already faded and we should return blank again tomorrow.

[picog]

So, does this mean, based on recent papers such as the study by livingstone and penn, and the more recent study (i forget by who?), that we will see a number of very low cycles (probably at liest around 3), causing the jet stream to be pushed south of us on average? (and we all know what that means!) personally, I think there is already strong evidence of this happening and I fully expect it to continue.

1947 here we come!

[SteveB]

So, does this mean, based on recent papers such as the study by livingstone and penn, and the more recent study (i forget by who?), that we will see a number of very low cycles (probably at liest around 3), causing the jet stream to be pushed south of us on average? (and we all know what that means!) personally, I think there is already strong evidence of this happening and I fully expect it to continue.

1947 here we come!

Aren't Livingstone & Penn the two that predicted zero sunspots by the year 20XX? Could be 1963 here we come — it was colder than 1947!

[pyrotech]

im certainly no expert on the subject and have only been following sunspot activity for a few years now, so I have not had the experience of watching a new cycle form.

But I would guess that at the start there would be a few spots, then a lull, then a few more, then a lull, and so on, until solar max is reached. This does seem to be what is happening here, such as the period of activity around july last year onwards, then there was a dip, then an increase around the start of the year, which has lasted a bit longer, now another dip, so I fully expect another period of activity to start again reasonably soon which will last a little longer than the previous one, and so on. Although it is very possible that I am wrong and we have just witnessed cycle 24s max, meaning that this cycle would be very short, which I think would be unusual for a cycle with a low number of sunspots as strong cycle = short cycle, weak cycle = long cycle, based on past data anyway.

personally I expect the cycle to peak around 2013 as expected with the average number of spots around 40-50 which is very low, and as many of the current day spots being counted whereas in the past they may not have, this number could be classed as being even lower, possibly very simmilar to the dalton/maunder minimums of past.

So, does this mean, based on recent papers such as the study by livingstone and penn, and the more recent study (i forget by who?), that we will see a number of very low cycles (probably at liest around 3), causing the jet stream to be pushed south of us on average? (and we all know what that means!) personally, I think there is already strong evidence of this happening and I fully expect it to continue.

1947 here we come!

Its been discussed in the UK and Northwest Europe thread of the climate change area of netweather, where this last winter was forecast to be an 80s style winte, i think that that come true and i gave that forecast almost entirely from effects of the solar cycle and minimum.

The minimum effects the jetstream and the gulf stream. There is lots about it and my predictions from 2008 which have been extremely accurate.

Where the sun decides to go from here is probably guess work. Experts in all fields have got it wrong about the 2010 - 2012 maqx which has goal posts being moved every few months. Then there are those who believe a deep prolonged minimum. I think its all unknown right now, but the effects of the minimum and decades of maximum are much better known. link to the UK forum http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/48837-uk-and-north-west-europe-climate-change/page__st__34

[snowray]

Looks like the speck has been counted.

In the mean time solar activity remains at ver low levels.

http://daltonsminima.wordpress.com/

Hi Steve

What a pitty they counted that. Of course if this had been pre space age we would stilll have been blanking I would have thought.

[SteveB]

Hi Steve

What a pitty they counted that. Of course if this had been pre space age we would stilll have been blanking I would have thought.

Probably snowray,

At least we are back to one blank day again.

[The PIT]

Micro spot was given a number 1063. It has already faded and we should return blank again tomorrow.

Should they really count these spots???? At one time they wouldn't have been seen at all.

I like this page http://www.landscheidt.info/?q=node/50

Edited April 30, 2010 by The PIT

[SteveB]

Probably not Pit,

Thanks for the link, very interesting.

[SteveB]

Sunspot 1064 which is the northeastern limb consists of 2 small spots.

Solar flux has gone upto 79, looks like the sun is waking up a bit.

[BARRY]

Sunspot 1064 which is the northeastern limb consists of 2 small spots.

Solar flux has gone upto 79, looks like the sun is waking up a bit.

what site do you use as spaceweather at 09.29 shows no spots

[SteveB]

what site do you use as spaceweather at 09.29 shows no spots

http://www.solarcycle24.com/index2.htm

It is fading, but still hanging on. There is another spot just rotating into view as well.

[Crepuscular Ray]

Unless it's more broken pixels, there are now three spots emerging in the northern hemisphere: the one appearing over the limb, the one at more or less the site of the one that disappeared yesterday and another on more or less the same latitude but further across.

http://sohowww.nascom.nasa.gov/data/realtime/mdi_igr/1024/latest.html

[Crepuscular Ray]

Days without sunspots: 0, plus an apparently beautiful auroral display last night in the Arctic and a fairly large coronal mass ejection (though probably not Earth-directed). Don't write C24 off quite yet... We've had such a short time observing the Sun in this much detail, we're doubtless all in for surprises.

[SteveB]

Days without sunspots: 0, plus an apparently beautiful auroral display last night in the Arctic and a fairly large coronal mass ejection (though probably not Earth-directed). Don't write C24 off quite yet... We've had such a short time observing the Sun in this much detail, we're doubtless all in for surprises.

There maybe spots, & in four regions, but the sun is not showing signs of major activity. Solar flux by all accounts should be nudging 100+, but it sits at 80.

[Mondy]

Sunspot number: 61

[SteveB]

Sunspot number: 61

http://www.landscheidt.info/?q=node/50

[Mondy]

http://www.nwra.com/spawx/ssne24.html

[The PIT]

I think they should be called sunspecs not spots.

[Mondy]

First M-flare in three months today (M1.1)

[SteveB]

The sun is blank again, we should be on at least one blank day if NOAA were to keep with tradition.

[MR EXTREMES]

The sun is blank again, we should be on at least one blank day if NOAA were to keep with tradition.

your hoping it wont happen.

but its truely turning out remarkable cycle loving it solar activity thread rules net weather.

the sun is not that active on the far side either so very low continues.http://nwstatic.co.uk/forum/public/style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/drinks.gif