Solar and Aurora Activity Chat

[SteveB]

Since December sunspot activity has increased significantly! The quiet sun is a distant memory and I find it very disappointing!

I want more winters like the one we've just had, not to go back to the late 1990s and early 2000s!

Karyo

Just because the sun has spots doesn't mean its still not quiet. All parameters are still low.

Edited March 2, 2010 by SteveB

[Gray-Wolf]

Just because the sun has spots doesn't mean its still not quiet. All parameters are still low.

The one thing you guys have convinced me over the past 3 years is that we know very little about solar cycles.

That said ,if the sun pushes out the same level of energy ,year on year, then a long 'calm' period must surely be building up more energy to release the next cycle? Like winding a watch if you have time for another couple of winds you put more energy in the system.

I still hold with the initial projections for the severity of the cycle but it will just be more condensed?

[DAVID SNOW]

The one thing you guys have convinced me over the past 3 years is that we know very little about solar cycles.

That said ,if the sun pushes out the same level of energy ,year on year, then a long 'calm' period must surely be building up more energy to release the next cycle? Like winding a watch if you have time for another couple of winds you put more energy in the system.

I still hold with the initial projections for the severity of the cycle but it will just be more condensed?

I'ts spring has broke after 50 years of winding i'ts self up.

Come back in say 50 years and see if it has bought a new one

[MR EXTREMES]

The one thing you guys have convinced me over the past 3 years is that we know very little about solar cycles.

That said ,if the sun pushes out the same level of energy ,year on year, then a long 'calm' period must surely be building up more energy to release the next cycle? Like winding a watch if you have time for another couple of winds you put more energy in the system.

I still hold with the initial projections for the severity of the cycle but it will just be more condensed?

lol most likely winding down.

i think the genral trend since 1900s was increasing activity but then a steady decline around 2004 with 08/09 really declining in a big way.

not only do i feel strongly about the sun and its effect during maximum and minimum events that go back as far as the maunder minimum with records for thease events.

it would be in my opion silly to disscount the possibility that the sun is in decline just because theres activity,

its still way way below the maximums of 90s and early 2000s its also has to be noticed that the peak in this cycle is not that many years away and then it will decline again.

even nasa are now joining many others in the thinking that cycle 24 will be nothing extreme its also fair to say a massive ramp up of activity could happen but is less likely going by data collected over many years.

i also pretty sure is has other global effects pdo jet stream and cosmic rays in the same way that clouds can be seeded.

there is lots more to lern about the sun but what ever happen whether it be ice age or desert planet or even total wipeout of our planet the sun will always be the main player.

[SteveB]

The sun is void of spots first time in 45 days.

Solar Update - After a nice run of about 45 days in which there was visible sunspots of the face of our star, the Sun now appears to be void of dark spots. How many days until we see the next sunspot ? Say tuned.

Solar activity in the next 24 hours should remain at very low level.

The Blank Sun (Saturday)

http://www.solarcycle24.com/index2.htm

Edited March 6, 2010 by SteveB

[Mondy]

A new sunspot is forming in the circled area. It has not yet received an official designation, but if it persists for the rest of the day, it will probably be numbered 1054.

[Crepuscular Ray]

I know a lot of people on here want the Sun never to have a sunspot ever again so they can have snow in winter, but...

* yes, we've had a deep miminum compared to recent ones, but there's no point comparing current early cycle activity with maxima of previous cycles as SC24's potential maximum is still several years away. That's like comparing the mating activity of toads in October with how they behave in February and March.

* most solar cycles stutter a bit at first

* if we don't get any sunspots for 30 years, talk of a 'Maunder-type' minimum is allowable, but that's not applicable now

* we've only been observing the Sun in this much detail for the last 20 years or so, so we're still learning what's going on. The Sun does what it wants, not what our theories say it should.

* granted that the Maunder minimum caused the Little Ice Age, is there any creditable scientific proof that there is an 11/22-year cycle of cold northern hemisphere winters caused by the solar cycle?

[SteveB]

Yesterday's spot didn't last the day so did not get numbered.

2 day's blank.

I think the start of cycle 24 is a bit more than a stutter crepuscular ray.

Edited March 8, 2010 by SteveB

[Crepuscular Ray]

Two days [sic] blank? It doesn't look like it's blank today. Where did you get that from? NOAA has today's sunspot count at 77 and if you look at Soho rather than the outdated image on spaceweather.com, there are lots of little specks and flecks.

Yes, the start of visible solar activity is late this cycle, but it you look at the butterfly diagram for any cycle, activity is sporadic at first. This one's obviously late compared to expectations, but not freakily so. As I said before, this is a relatively new science, so describing things as abnormal on the basis of reliable observations of only a small number of samples is not particularly good science. Maybe we should get the astronomers to rewrite the books and describe Sol as a variable star?

[SteveB]

3 days blank,

Solar Update - The sun remains blank of sunspots and the solar flux has dipped down to 76. Solar activity should continue at very low levels.

Blank Sun (Early Tuesday)

I see no spots on the Sun, unless you are counting the burnt out pixel.

http://www.solarcycle24.com/index2.htm

http://spaceweather.com/

[karyo]

3 days blank,

At long last!

Karyo

[Mondy]

Incredible.

LOL

[SteveB]

4 days blank, but flux is up slightly from 76 to 78.

http://spaceweather.com/

[SteveB]

After four days blank the sun has spots again. 2 groups have formed, one in the northern hemisphere (1054) on the eastern limb, and another in the southern hemisphere (1055).

Solar flux is up at 80.

http://solarcycle24.com/

[mettalfabrik]

don,t suppose there is much clear sky about up the top end which is a pity because the current aurora oval map looks to be down to 60.north again tonight

cheers

blackdown

[Mondy]

New sunspot 1056 is forming near the sun's northeastern limb

[Fozfoster]

Hi steve B, Are we coming out of the solar minima now?

[SteveB]

Hi steve B, Are we coming out of the solar minima now?

Hi Foz,

Solar indicators are still at very low levels despite the constant sunspots.

No sign of coming out of that minimum yet

[MR EXTREMES]

Hi Foz,

Solar indicators are still at very low levels despite the constant sunspots.

No sign of coming out of that minimum yet

to be honest i think its gonna stay this way for sometime.http://nwstatic.co.uk/forum/public/style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/whistling.gif

[SteveB]

Every minimum has its maximum, the question is, are we seeing an increase inactivity leading to cycle24's maximum some time in 2013 which would mean another two years of ever increasing activity, or are have we seen cycle24's maximum between September 2009 & February 2010 and are now heading back into deep minimum?

As ever time will tell.

[mettalfabrik]

this is the first time i think ,that i have received a k index of 6 warning from swpc ,they have been sending out K5/4 WARNINGS for some time now

another sign of increasing activity

Space Weather Message Code: ALTK06

Serial Number: 261

Issue Time: 2010 Apr 05 0922 UTC

ALERT: Geomagnetic K-index of 6

Threshold Reached: 2010 Apr 05 0920 UTC

Synoptic Period: 0900-1200 UTC

Station: Boulder

Active Warning: No

NOAA Scale: G2 - Moderate

NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at

www.swpc.noaa.gov/NOAAscales

[mettalfabrik]

update now K=7

Space Weather Message Code: ALTK07

Serial Number: 81

Issue Time: 2010 Apr 05 0956 UTC

ALERT: Geomagnetic K-index of 7

Threshold Reached: 2010 Apr 05 0955 UTC

Synoptic Period: 0900-1200 UTC

Station: Boulder

Active Warning: No

NOAA Scale: G3 - Strong

way down into the states this morning

GEOALERT LATEST from SIDC

GEOALERT BRU095

UGEOA 30512 00405 1144/ 9930/

10052 23052 30052

99999

PLAIN

NOTE: the above forecasts are valid from 1230UT, 05 Apr 2010 until 07 Apr 2010

PREDICTIONS FOR 05 Apr 2010 10CM FLUX: 078 / AP: 038

PREDICTIONS FOR 06 Apr 2010 10CM FLUX: 078 / AP: 028

PREDICTIONS FOR 07 Apr 2010 10CM FLUX: 079 / AP: 013

COMMENT: Solar activity is expected to be low for the next 48 hours.

Geomagnetic activity is currently reaching major storm condition levels.

An interplanetary shock was detected around 08:00 UT on ACE. It is

probably linked to a halo CME, which occurred on April 3rd. Active

conditions are observed currently at planetary levels, and major storm

conditions are observed in Boulder, Wingst and Niemegk observatories.

Geomagnetic conditions are expected to settle down a little, but active

conditions are expected to persist on April 6 due to a coronal hole.

Edited April 5, 2010 by blackdown

[mettalfabrik]

more updates of geomagnetic activity

Official Space Weather Advisory issued by NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center

Boulder, Colorado, USA

SPACE WEATHER ADVISORY BULLETIN #10- 1

2010 April 05 at 12:13 p.m. MST (2010 April 05 1213 UTC)

**** STRONG GEOMAGNETIC STORM IN PROGRESS ****

A geomagnetic storm began at 05:55 AM EST Monday, April 5, 2010. Space

weather storm levels reached Strong (G3) levels on the Geomagnetic

Storms Space Weather Scale. The source of the storming is an

Earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejection associated with a weak solar flare

that occurred in Active Region 1059 on April 3 at 05:54 AM EST. This

is expected to be an isolated storm that should subside quickly. Other

than the flare and CME erupting on April 3, this active region has not

produced any significant activity. Systems that can be affected

include electric power systems, spacecraft operations, high-frequency

communications, GPS, and other navigation systems.

Data used to provide space weather services are contributed by NOAA,

USAF, NASA, NSF, USGS, the International Space Environment Services

and other observatories, universities, and institutions. More

information is available at SWPC's Web site http://swpc.noaa.gov

:Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/presto

#--------------------------------------------------------------------#

# FAST WARNING 'PRESTO' MESSAGE from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium) #

#--------------------------------------------------------------------#

Major geomagnetic storm in progress. <br /> Geomagnetic conditions are

currently reaching major storm levels at several stations, like Boulder,

Wingst and Niemegk. An interplanetary shock was observed on ACE at 08:00

UT, probably linked to a halo CME observed on April 3rd. Isolated minor

storm conditions are expected to persist for the next few hours. Active

conditions are still expected on April 6th due to a coronal hole.

and the spaceshuttle launched this morning to the ISS lets hope it does not give them any trouble

Edited April 5, 2010 by blackdown

[mettalfabrik]

GEOMAGNETIC STORM: A sharp gust of solar wind hit Earth's magnetosphere today, April 5th, at approximately 0800 UT and sparked the strongest geomagnetic storm of the year. The event registered 7 on the 0-to-9 Kindex scale of magnetic disturbances. Although the storm is subsiding now, it is not over; high-latitude sky watchers should remain alert for auroras. Latest images may be found in the gallery: http://www.spaceweather.com/aurora/gallery_01apr10_page3.htm

if there are any clear skies tonight might be worth a look outside oop north anyway

Edited April 5, 2010 by blackdown

[SteveB]

Might be going blank again tomorrow, solar flux is currently at 75.