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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

    Certainly looks as though July 2008 was the absolute minimum in terms of solar fux, with December 2001 being the maximum of solar cycle 23, that points to the maximum being in late 2014/early 2015 if the cycle holds.

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    Just a few pics from early this morning at West Sands, St. Andrews  First one was 100iso eq @ f1.8 and 10 sec exposure, strong moonlight about midnight with the faintest of hint of an aurora.

    More shots here from Scotland last night. Fingers crossed again tonight as there is another predicted Kp7 ☺

    From Salon on the Isle Of Rum & The Isle Of Lewis tonight. Credit; Martin Keivers and Emma Mitchell.  

    Posted Images

    Posted
  • Location: Erith. SE London/kent 40m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Erith. SE London/kent 40m asl

    Well here are Nasa's predictions as of 4/1/2010, they are expecting the peek in 3 years time.

    post-3094-12642732471128_thumb.gif

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    Posted
  • Location: Erith. SE London/kent 40m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Erith. SE London/kent 40m asl

    Interestingly, here are the predictions Nasa made in October 2006, spot the difference! :whistling:

    post-3094-12642745109728_thumb.jpg

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    Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey

    M2 Flare on 19/20 Jan, largest for over 2 years. Cycle 24 starting in earnest now, expect more activity from here on. Agree though that it will be a quiet cycle with quieter to follow. Incredible downgrading by NASA I must say.

    BFTP

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    Posted
  • Location: portsmouth uk
  • Weather Preferences: extremes
  • Location: portsmouth uk

    solar flux has dropped in a dramtic way activity dropping fast.

    the suns still showing some signs of blank period.

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    Posted
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Hot sunny , cold and snowy, thunderstorms
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset

    The flux has dropped to 73 today, that must be the lowest for a few months?

    Could we be on the verge of another period of blank suns?

    Probably not, but one can hope.

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    Posted
  • Location: portsmouth uk
  • Weather Preferences: extremes
  • Location: portsmouth uk

    The flux has dropped to 73 today, that must be the lowest for a few months?

    Could we be on the verge of another period of blank suns?

    Probably not, but one can hope.

    this is very intresting during the lowest point of the activity a year or more ago the lowest flux was 64 now where down to 73 for the highest 93 intresting and rather exciting.:nonono:

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Location: Manchester

    What will it take to have another spotless day? Just as I thought we would have no more spots for a while, a new one formed!

    www.spaceweather.com

    Karyo

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    Posted
  • Location: Kingdom of Fife: 56.2º N, 3.2º W
  • Location: Kingdom of Fife: 56.2º N, 3.2º W

    What will it take to have another spotless day? Just as I thought we would have no more spots for a while, a new one formed!

    www.spaceweather.com

    Karyo

    :) :)

    ...and it's growing!

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    Posted
  • Location: Erith. SE London/kent 40m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Erith. SE London/kent 40m asl

    :shok: indeed.

    Is it a new spot or just the old ones coming round into view again, a couple of spotless days were due as they went behind the sun. I think it was 1041 thats been going for ages now? http://nwstatic.co.uk/forum/public/style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/unsure.gif

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    Posted
  • Location: Erith. SE London/kent 40m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Erith. SE London/kent 40m asl

    Actually its 1040 thats been going for some time and the new one is 1043, although looking relatively quiet none the less.

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    Posted
  • Location: Coalpit Heath, South Gloucestershire
  • Location: Coalpit Heath, South Gloucestershire

    http://wattsupwiththat.com/2010/02/02/solar-cycle-24-update/#more-15974

    Very interesting stuff here from David Archibald. Note the prediction for temperature over the predicted length of cycle 24 (2009-2021). As he says.......it could be that the decline has already started.

    Exciting, innit?! :rolleyes:

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    Posted
  • Location: Shrewsbury,Shropshire
  • Location: Shrewsbury,Shropshire

    http://wattsupwiththat.com/2010/02/02/solar-cycle-24-update/#more-15974

    Very interesting stuff here from David Archibald. Note the prediction for temperature over the predicted length of cycle 24 (2009-2021). As he says.......it could be that the decline has already started.

    Exciting, innit?! http://nwstatic.co.uk/forum/public/style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/cool.gif

    Hmm, maybe we weren't nutters afterall :)

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    Posted
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Hot sunny , cold and snowy, thunderstorms
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset

    http://wattsupwithth...ate/#more-15974

    Very interesting stuff here from David Archibald. Note the prediction for temperature over the predicted length of cycle 24 (2009-2021). As he says.......it could be that the decline has already started.

    Exciting, innit?! Posted Image

    That is very very interesting. Would be good to see how it pans out over this next year & if it stays in tandem with cycle5.

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    Posted
  • Location: Erith. SE London/kent 40m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Erith. SE London/kent 40m asl

    That is very very interesting. Would be good to see how it pans out over this next year & if it stays in tandem with cycle5.

    This will be fascinating to follow, any takers going for lower than cycle 5 then? :diablo:

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    Posted
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Hot sunny , cold and snowy, thunderstorms
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset

    This will be fascinating to follow, any takers going for lower than cycle 5 then? :D

    I would be happy to see it stay in tandem with cycle5, but would love to see it go even lower. Certainly do not wish to see it ramp up.

    Edited by SteveB
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    Posted
  • Location: Somerset midway between Bath&Wells. Mendips 200m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and lots of it or warm and sunny, no mediocre dross
  • Location: Somerset midway between Bath&Wells. Mendips 200m asl

    This is from October last year so apologies if you've all seen it before.

    Hathaway predicting cycle 24 will be half the strength of the last 3 - 4 cycles but also admitting his instinct says it could be even smaller still.

    http://solarscience.auditblogs.com/

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    Posted
  • Location: Erith. SE London/kent 40m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Erith. SE London/kent 40m asl

    I would be happy to see it stay in tandem with cycle5, but would love to see it go even lower. Certainly do not wish to see it ramp up.

    The Italian site "New Ice age" has an expert on there called ALE, seems very highly regarded on there, anyone ever heard of him? Well he seems to think that the sun is already showing signs of what he considers peak activity for cycle 24, in other words that we won't see much, if any in the way of mega activity in the next 2 or 3 years and it will just carry on like it has in January more or less. I'm trying to find out more about this guy at the moment.

    This is from October last year so apologies if you've all seen it before.

    Hathaway predicting cycle 24 will be half the strength of the last 3 - 4 cycles but also admitting his instinct says it could be even smaller still.

    http://solarscience.auditblogs.com/

    Thats a major turnaround, in 2006 he was predicting the cycle 24 would be the most intense since records began 400 years ago! Scientists for you ay!

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    Posted
  • Location: Somerset midway between Bath&Wells. Mendips 200m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and lots of it or warm and sunny, no mediocre dross
  • Location: Somerset midway between Bath&Wells. Mendips 200m asl

    He also said 25 would be very quiet, are we looking at a prolonged period of low Solar output? Dalton, Maunder proportions????

    Questions, questions, questions, oh for a time machine.

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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

    He also said 25 would be very quiet, are we looking at a prolonged period of low Solar output? Dalton, Maunder proportions????

    Questions, questions, questions, oh for a time machine.

    It would be good if we did, Dawn. Irrespective of whether GW is A or not???

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    Posted
  • Location: Somerset midway between Bath&Wells. Mendips 200m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and lots of it or warm and sunny, no mediocre dross
  • Location: Somerset midway between Bath&Wells. Mendips 200m asl

    Well it might give us more insight into the proportion of warming/cooling is as a result of Solar output. Personally, I haven't got much further than thinking of old style snow drifts and Dickensian Christmas's :whistling:

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    Posted
  • Location: Erith. SE London/kent 40m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Erith. SE London/kent 40m asl

    Well it might give us more insight into the proportion of warming/cooling is as a result of Solar output. Personally, I haven't got much further than thinking of old style snow drifts and Dickensian Christmas's :cc_confused:

    OMG, thats exactly what I keep thinking about. :D

    Big snow dfifts up my road, skiing to work, Mid Dec-Mid Feb will do just nice!

    The sun remains very quite I see, with just that one insy bitsy spot and a solar flux of mmmm, lets see, 73?

    Edited by snowray
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