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Posted
  • Location: frogmore south devon
  • Location: frogmore south devon

    Yes, how ironic! Just as we were hoping for a quiet period.

    Karyo

    Yes but spot 1040 is the remains of 1035 so technical it is not new

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    Just a few pics from early this morning at West Sands, St. Andrews  First one was 100iso eq @ f1.8 and 10 sec exposure, strong moonlight about midnight with the faintest of hint of an aurora.

    More shots here from Scotland last night. Fingers crossed again tonight as there is another predicted Kp7 ☺

    From Salon on the Isle Of Rum & The Isle Of Lewis tonight. Credit; Martin Keivers and Emma Mitchell.  

    Posted Images

    Posted
  • Location: Kingdom of Fife: 56.2º N, 3.2º W
  • Location: Kingdom of Fife: 56.2º N, 3.2º W

    Yes but spot 1040 is the remains of 1035 so technical it is not new

    Yeah, but, it's a return trip and therefore a long lived spot. More significant than a quick bubble and fade perhaps?

    Update: it has also recently fired off a C1 class flare. Go 1040 (aka 1035!) :wallbash:

    http://www.spaceweather.com/

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    Posted
  • Location: portsmouth uk
  • Weather Preferences: extremes
  • Location: portsmouth uk

    i think finally suns activity is starting to increase but i wouldnt be surprised if we get more long stretches like 30 or 50 days of no activity...

    20 years from now we could be in the pits.

    no im sure activity will increase this year but it will still be low.

    i was just wondering when is the maximum point of this cycle predicted to be?

    thanks.

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    Posted
  • Location: Tornado Alley, west London
  • Location: Tornado Alley, west London

    That's good for those of us who are waiting for solar activity to increase.

    BTW sunspot 1040 is getting more and more complicated by the hour: it now has more than 30 'cores' and looks stunning on the Soho ultra-violet images. I'm surprise that it hasn't let loose any flares in the last couple of days.

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    Posted
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Hot sunny , cold and snowy, thunderstorms
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset

    Should see a few days going spotless from tomrrow. But its not going to last long unfortunately because old sunspot 1035 is on the eastern limb and is looking very activePosted Image

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    Edited by SteveB
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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Location: Manchester

    Should see a few days going spotless from tomrrow. But its not going to last long unfortunately because old sunspot 1035 is on the eastern limb and is looking very activePosted Image

    Posted Image

    It is disappointing that the sun spots make it around the sun. It shows that activity is increasing! A few months ago, they would only last a day or two and disappear!

    Karyo

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    Posted
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Hot sunny , cold and snowy, thunderstorms
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset

    It is disappointing that the sun spots make it around the sun. It shows that activity is increasing! A few months ago, they would only last a day or two and disappear!

    Karyo

    Have a read of this

    http://daltonsminima.wordpress.com/

    you have to use google translate to read, but well worth it.

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    Posted
  • Location: Longlevens, 16m ASL / Bradley Stoke, 75m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Hot sunny summers, cold snowy winters
  • Location: Longlevens, 16m ASL / Bradley Stoke, 75m ASL

    The first registered M-Class flare of Cycle 24 has taken place today at 13:41 UTC (M2.3) :yahoo:

    Boo Hiss http://nwstatic.co.uk/forum/public/style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/laugh.gif :angry:

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    Posted
  • Location: Erith. SE London/kent 40m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Erith. SE London/kent 40m asl

    Is that it then, cycle 24 well and truly started? :D

    Could things quieten down again, thought things were expected to calm down? ;)

    Edited by snowray
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    Posted
  • Location: Tornado Alley, west London
  • Location: Tornado Alley, west London

    Is that it then, cycle 24 well and truly started? :rolleyes:

    Could things quieten down again, thought things were expected to calm down? :(

    No they're not expected to calm down overall, at least not over the next few years as the Sun builds up to its next maximum (although there will still probably be quiet patches and there are predictions that this maximum won't be as active as previous ones). After a deep and prolonged solar minimum, the sunspot cycle is beginning to stutter into life again. As a sunspot watcher, I'm one of those who are happy about that!

    It's still a very new science, though, so watch this space.

    2nd M-class flare tonight :drinks:

    Yippee!

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    Posted
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Hot sunny , cold and snowy, thunderstorms
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset

    Might be able to gain 1 or 2 more spotless days before that ugly spot rotates into view.

    Currently a rather poor 2 blank days for 2010

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    Posted
  • Location: Larbert
  • Location: Larbert

    http://www.spaceweather.com/

    CRACKLING SUNSPOT: Old sunspot 1039 is crackling with solar flares. Over the past 48 hours, it has produced five M-class eruptions. Click on the image to play a movie of the latest, an M2-blast recorded by STEREO-B at 1756 GMT on Jan. 20th:

    The ongoing sequence of flares signals a sharp upturn in solar activity. Before this week, the last time the sun produced even a single M-class solar flare was in March 2008--almost two years ago. M-class solar flares have a moderate effect on Earth. Mainly, they boost the usual ionization of Earth's upper atmosphere, causing short-lived radio blackouts at some frequencies and radio enhancements at others. For an example, scroll down and read the section "Ionospheric Disturbance."

    Today, the active region responsible for these fireworks is emerging over the sun's eastern limb where it can be seen from Earth: finder chart. Readers with solar telescopes are encouraged to monitor developments.

    Edited by Mondy
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    Posted
  • Location: Somerset midway between Bath&Wells. Mendips 200m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and lots of it or warm and sunny, no mediocre dross
  • Location: Somerset midway between Bath&Wells. Mendips 200m asl

    Mondy - how does this recent activity square with the expected magnitude/timing of maximum? Does this bode well for a more active cycle than expected or have no bearing at all? Any idea whether or not the theory of sunspots disappearing by 2015 is still on course?

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    Posted
  • Location: Larbert
  • Location: Larbert

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mausumi_Dikpati

    I personally have no inkling how things will pan out. Nobody can forecast the Sun's next party piece.

    For sure SC24 has started late - will it soon increase activity rapidly or continue to rise slowly? :clap:

    As for sunspots disappearing by 2015, a cynic would say this is the next big global village discussion (after we get over the nonsense of *agw* ). The sun, together with sunspots, will do what they want to do, not what models or forecasters want to see. Cynical I know, but I believe nothing nowadays..

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    Posted
  • Location: Sth Staffs/Shrops 105m/345' & NW Snowdonia 219m/719'
  • Location: Sth Staffs/Shrops 105m/345' & NW Snowdonia 219m/719'

    I personally have no inkling how things will pan out. Nobody can forecast the Sun's next party piece......

    As for sunspots disappearing by 2015, a cynic would say this is the next big global village discussion .....The sun, together with sunspots, will do what they want to do, not what models or forecasters want to see.......

    Quote from one of the bigger debates about this...

    "....we have data on far too few cycles to know whether or not this is a typical cycle, nor whether the average 11 year cycle is valid;- there are over 90,000 eleven year periods per million years.

    .... those who simply use past graphs/frequencies/data/etc. in an attempt to predict the future are not employing the scientific method (there is no hypothesis, which might be disproven or supported), but merely extrapolating.

    Extrapolation is an interesting (some would say existential) pastime, but it is not science – even when enhanced via supercomputer."

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