Jump to content
shuggee

Solar and Aurora Activity Chat

Recommended Posts

Hi Snowray, sunspot 1034 is still hanging in there, but is not very active, may produce some B class flares, but over all remaining quiet.

Solar flux has gone up though to 75, from 71 when it was spotless.

Hi Steve. Looks like things are getting a bit more active then, never know though, could still calm down again before the end of the year maybe. http://nwstatic.co.uk/forum/public/style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/laugh.gif

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Hi Steve. Looks like things are getting a bit more active then, never know though, could still calm down again before the end of the year maybe. Posted Image

Solar flux up to 82, spot looks huge. Good job we have 15 day's left of 2009. We need 6 more to level with 2008.

It really is going to be a push.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Solar flux up to 82, spot looks huge. Good job we have 15 day's left of 2009. We need 6 more to level with 2008.

It really is going to be a push.

i dont think we will beat 2008 record.

anyway i just wondered does anyone know what this cycle would need to reach average or above in terms of activity,

im starting to get a little concerned that this could be the start of a uptrend?

ofcoarse id rather it stayed as is has done for the last couple of years,

i think i jinxed our sun.

:):good:

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

latest from SIDC

:Issued: 2009 Dec 16 1242 UTC

:Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/xut

#--------------------------------------------------------------------#

# GEOALERT message from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium) #

#--------------------------------------------------------------------#

GEOALERT BRU350

UGEOA 30512 91216 1223/ 9930/

11162 20162 30162

99999

PLAIN

NOTE: the above forecasts are valid from 1230UT, 16 Dec 2009 until 18 Dec 2009

PREDICTIONS FOR 16 Dec 2009 10CM FLUX: 083 / AP: 001

PREDICTIONS FOR 17 Dec 2009 10CM FLUX: 084 / AP: 012

PREDICTIONS FOR 18 Dec 2009 10CM FLUX: 084 / AP: 007

COMMENT: Solar activity is expected to reach active levels, with risks

of C-class flaring activity from NOAA AR 1035. A C5 flare occurred in

this AR at 01:35UT on Dec. 16th. This region still has potential for

producing new C-class flares. Geomagnetic activity is expected to be

mostly quiet for the next 48 hours.

CHEERS

BLACKDOWN

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Well, at least the sun is trying to wake up. Been a right old sleepy head this last couple of years :air_kiss:

Still a ways off Earth directed X class flares though, and me waiting to get the camera out and snap some auroras. By the time cycle 25 comes round I'll be in me 70's http://nwstatic.co.uk/forum/public/style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/laugh.gif

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

1035 is a delta-gamma configuration ! This magnetic polarity pose a seriouse threat for M-class flare !

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

the latest fom SIDC and 1035

#--------------------------------------------------------------------#

# GEOALERT message from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium) #

#--------------------------------------------------------------------#

GEOALERT BRU351

UGEOA 30512 91217 1238/ 9930/

11172 20172 30172

99999

PLAIN

NOTE: the above forecasts are valid from 1230UT, 17 Dec 2009 until 19 Dec 2009

PREDICTIONS FOR 17 Dec 2009 10CM FLUX: 084 / AP: 010

PREDICTIONS FOR 18 Dec 2009 10CM FLUX: 084 / AP: 011

PREDICTIONS FOR 19 Dec 2009 10CM FLUX: 084 / AP: 012

COMMENT: Solar activity is expected to stay at moderately active

levels, with risks for C-class flaring activity from NOAA AR 1035. Three

C-class flares occurred on Dec. 16th, the first one being associated

with a partial halo CME. This CME might increase geomagnetic activity

from quiet to unsettled on late Dec. 18th or early Dec. 19th.

cheers

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

solar flux at 88 now possible that one of the flares came from area thats not rotated into view yet

cheers

#--------------------------------------------------------------------#

# GEOALERT message from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium) #

#--------------------------------------------------------------------#

GEOALERT BRU352

UGEOA 30512 91218 1146/ 9930/

11182 20182 30182

99999

PLAIN

NOTE: the above forecasts are valid from 1230UT, 18 Dec 2009 until 20 Dec 2009

PREDICTIONS FOR 18 Dec 2009 10CM FLUX: 088 / AP: 011

PREDICTIONS FOR 19 Dec 2009 10CM FLUX: 088 / AP: 012

PREDICTIONS FOR 20 Dec 2009 10CM FLUX: 087 / AP: 007

COMMENT: Solar activity is expected to stay at moderately active

levels, with risks of C-class flares from NOAA AR 1035. Geomagnetic

activity is expected to be mostly quiet with risks of isolated periods

of unsettled conditions either late on Dec. 18th or early Dec. 19th. The

reason is the possible effect of the partial halo CME of Dec. 16th.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Sunspot number: 43

it waking up bigtime spot group south hemisphere two in northern very active as suggest flux 82 and solar wind has picked up so has spot numbers.

its not looking good if you want the minimum to continue.

although im not sure if this spell is classed as still low in activity in trems of a minimum.

would the dalton still have this kind of outbreak?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

it waking up bigtime spot group south hemisphere two in northern very active as suggest flux 82 and solar wind has picked up so has spot numbers.

its not looking good if you want the minimum to continue.

although im not sure if this spell is classed as still low in activity in trems of a minimum.

would the dalton still have this kind of outbreak?

I guess it's kind of like buses, you wait around for ages then 3 appear together! 1035, 36 & 37 :pardon:

http://www.spaceweather.com/

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

You cannot see 2 of them in the normal spectrum, So is this a ploy to keep sunspot activity going so we don't get more spotless days than last year

Edited by BARRY

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

You cannot see 2 of them in the normal spectrum, So is this a ploy to keep sunspot activity going so we don't get more spotless days than last year

I agree, we should have two separate counts, one involving how spots used to be measured, the other as of now!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I agree, we should have two separate counts, one involving how spots used to be measured, the other as of now!

Time it was sorted out, How do you measure what is relevant to other minimums

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Fair point Barry. Any scientific study would need to measure and compare like for like.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Don't like all this activity, I know some do for radio thingy's, but the sooner it goes quieter the better.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Don't like all this activity, I know some do for radio thingy's, but the sooner it goes quieter the better.

Sorry fella, i think it is my fault remember, i asked you how many spotless days to beat last yearPosted Image must still be close.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

All we have left to do is figure whether or not there is a delay in 'activity' and global temps.....LOL

I figure ,like Arctic sea ice gain in winter, the only way is 'up'.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Sorry fella, i think it is my fault remember, i asked you how many spotless days to beat last yearPosted Image must still be close.

I think we need six spotless days to beat 2008.

It's not going to happenPosted Image

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Don't like all this activity, I know some do for radio thingy's, but the sooner it goes quieter the better.

its still low and dare i say it it looks like staying this way i know what you mean but its slowly calming down again fingers toes crossed lol.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Restore formatting

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.


×
×
  • Create New...