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Posted
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Hot sunny , cold and snowy, thunderstorms
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset

    I new it wouldn't last.

    A small sunspot may have just rotated on to the western limb

    A small sunspot may have just rotated onto the east

    http://solarcycle24.com/

    Edited by SteveB
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    Just a few pics from early this morning at West Sands, St. Andrews  First one was 100iso eq @ f1.8 and 10 sec exposure, strong moonlight about midnight with the faintest of hint of an aurora.

    More shots here from Scotland last night. Fingers crossed again tonight as there is another predicted Kp7 ☺

    From Salon on the Isle Of Rum & The Isle Of Lewis tonight. Credit; Martin Keivers and Emma Mitchell.  

    Posted Images

    Posted
  • Location: portsmouth uk
  • Weather Preferences: extremes
  • Location: portsmouth uk

    I new it wouldn't last.

    A small sunspot may have just rotated on to the western limb

    A small sunspot may have just rotated onto the east

    http://solarcycle24.com/

    may have and still expected to be very low so even though it did not make 4 days extra where talking still against nasa predictions good new and its small if it is one so im happy.

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    Posted
  • Location: ilminster Somerset
  • Location: ilminster Somerset

    the latest set of predictions issued yesterday i have my doubts but hey what do i know

    sorry about the format see it properly here

    http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/ftpdir/weekly/Predict.txt

    :Predicted_Sunspot_Numbers_and_Radio_Flux: Predict.txt

    :Created: 2009 Dec 08 1800 UTC

    # Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC).

    # Please send comments and suggestions to [email protected]

    #

    # Sunspot Number: S.I.D.C. Brussels International Sunspot Number.

    # 10.7cm Radio Flux value: Penticton, B.C. Canada.

    # Predicted values are based on the consensus of the Solar Cycle 24 Prediction Panel.

    #

    # See the README3 file for further information.

    #

    # Missing or not applicable data: -1

    #

    # Predicted Sunspot Number And Radio Flux Values

    # With Expected Ranges

    #

    # -----Sunspot Number------ ----10.7 cm Radio Flux----

    # YR MO PREDICTED HIGH LOW PREDICTED HIGH LOW

    #--------------------------------------------------------------

    2009 06 2.9 3.9 1.9 70.0 71.0 69.0

    2009 07 4.1 6.1 2.1 70.3 71.3 69.3

    2009 08 5.5 8.5 2.5 70.8 72.8 68.8

    2009 09 7.0 12.0 2.0 71.4 74.4 68.4

    2009 10 8.9 13.9 3.9 72.2 76.2 68.2

    2009 11 10.8 16.8 4.8 73.2 77.2 69.2

    2009 12 12.9 19.9 5.9 74.4 79.4 69.4

    2010 01 15.1 22.1 8.1 75.9 81.9 69.9

    2010 02 17.7 25.7 9.7 77.7 84.7 70.7

    2010 03 20.5 29.5 11.5 79.6 87.6 71.6

    2010 04 23.4 32.4 14.4 81.4 89.4 73.4

    2010 05 26.4 36.4 16.4 83.4 92.4 74.4

    2010 06 29.3 39.3 19.3 85.6 94.6 76.6

    2010 07 31.6 41.6 21.6 87.7 96.7 78.7

    2010 08 34.3 44.3 24.3 90.2 99.2 81.2

    2010 09 37.1 47.1 27.1 92.7 101.7 83.7

    2010 10 39.8 49.8 29.8 95.2 104.2 86.2

    2010 11 42.5 52.5 32.5 97.8 106.8 88.8

    2010 12 45.3 55.3 35.3 100.3 109.3 91.3

    2011 01 48.0 58.0 38.0 102.8 111.8 93.8

    2011 02 50.7 60.7 40.7 105.2 114.2 96.2

    2011 03 53.3 63.3 43.3 107.7 116.7 98.7

    2011 04 55.9 65.9 45.9 110.0 119.0 101.0

    2011 05 58.5 68.5 48.5 112.4 121.4 103.4

    2011 06 60.9 70.9 50.9 114.6 123.6 105.6

    2011 07 63.3 73.3 53.3 116.8 125.8 107.8

    2011 08 65.7 75.7 55.7 119.0 128.0 110.0

    2011 09 67.9 77.9 57.9 121.0 130.0 112.0

    2011 10 70.0 80.0 60.0 123.0 132.0 114.0

    2011 11 72.1 82.1 62.1 124.9 133.9 115.9

    2011 12 74.0 84.0 64.0 126.7 135.7 117.7

    2012 01 75.9 85.9 65.9 128.4 137.4 119.4

    2012 02 77.6 87.6 67.6 130.0 139.0 121.0

    2012 03 79.3 89.3 69.3 131.5 140.5 122.5

    2012 04 80.8 90.8 70.8 132.9 141.9 123.9

    2012 05 82.2 92.2 72.2 134.1 143.1 125.1

    2012 06 83.5 93.5 73.5 135.3 144.3 126.3

    2012 07 84.6 94.6 74.6 136.4 145.4 127.4

    2012 08 85.7 95.7 75.7 137.4 146.4 128.4

    2012 09 86.6 96.6 76.6 138.2 147.2 129.2

    2012 10 87.5 97.5 77.5 139.0 148.0 130.0

    2012 11 88.2 98.2 78.2 139.6 148.6 130.6

    2012 12 88.7 98.7 78.7 140.2 149.2 131.2

    2013 01 89.2 99.2 79.2 140.6 149.6 131.6

    2013 02 89.6 99.6 79.6 140.9 149.9 131.9

    2013 03 89.8 99.8 79.8 141.1 150.1 132.1

    2013 04 89.9 99.9 79.9 141.3 150.3 132.3

    2013 05 90.0 100.0 80.0 141.3 150.3 132.3

    2013 06 89.9 99.9 79.9 141.2 150.2 132.2

    2013 07 89.7 99.7 79.7 141.0 150.0 132.0

    2013 08 89.4 99.4 79.4 140.7 149.7 131.7

    2013 09 89.0 99.0 79.0 140.4 149.4 131.4

    2013 10 88.5 98.5 78.5 139.9 148.9 130.9

    2013 11 87.9 97.9 77.9 139.4 148.4 130.4

    2013 12 87.2 97.2 77.2 138.8 147.8 129.8

    2014 01 86.4 96.4 76.4 138.1 147.1 129.1

    2014 02 85.6 95.6 75.6 137.3 146.3 128.3

    2014 03 84.7 94.7 74.7 136.4 145.4 127.4

    2014 04 83.7 93.7 73.7 135.5 144.5 126.5

    2014 05 82.6 92.6 72.6 134.5 143.5 125.5

    2014 06 81.4 91.4 71.4 133.5 142.5 124.5

    2014 07 80.2 90.2 70.2 132.3 141.3 123.3

    2014 08 78.9 88.9 68.9 131.2 140.2 122.2

    2014 09 77.6 87.6 67.6 129.9 138.9 120.9

    2014 10 76.2 86.2 66.2 128.7 137.7 119.7

    2014 11 74.8 84.8 64.8 127.4 136.4 118.4

    2014 12 73.3 83.3 63.3 126.0 135.0 117.0

    2015 01 71.8 81.8 61.8 124.6 133.6 115.6

    2015 02 70.2 80.2 60.2 123.2 132.2 114.2

    2015 03 68.7 78.7 58.7 121.7 130.7 112.7

    2015 04 67.0 77.0 57.0 120.2 129.2 111.2

    2015 05 65.4 75.4 55.4 118.7 127.7 109.7

    2015 06 63.8 73.8 53.8 117.2 126.2 108.2

    2015 07 62.1 72.1 52.1 115.7 124.7 106.7

    2015 08 60.4 70.4 50.4 114.1 123.1 105.1

    2015 09 58.7 68.7 48.7 112.6 121.6 103.6

    2015 10 57.0 67.0 47.0 111.0 120.0 102.0

    2015 11 55.3 65.3 45.3 109.5 118.5 100.5

    2015 12 53.6 63.6 43.6 107.9 116.9 98.9

    Edited by blackdown
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    Posted
  • Location: Christchurch, Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme weather what else!
  • Location: Christchurch, Dorset

    I new it wouldn't last.

    A small sunspot may have just rotated on to the western limb

    A small sunspot may have just rotated onto the east

    http://solarcycle24.com/

    Even if it is a spot i don't think it matters that much,

    we are still seeing very low activity, and would it have been visible using older techniques?

    having new ways to look at the sun is great, but also makes it harder to compare this downturn with past events.

    Long may it continue http://nwstatic.co.uk/forum/public/style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/ohmy.gif

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    Posted
  • Location: Western Isle of Wight
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Storm, anything loud and dramatic.
  • Location: Western Isle of Wight

    Just noticed this:- http://www.spaceweather.com/

    Here is the main source:- http://www.vg.no/nyheter/vaer/artikkel.php?artid=596359 (Translator needed)

    I wonder if this is a natural phenomenon, surly rockets, missiles and other aircraft etc, would have been seen time and time again by now, if they were the cause?

    Pleasantly puzzling IMO :rolleyes:

    Russ

    Edited by Rustynailer
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    Posted
  • Location: ilminster Somerset
  • Location: ilminster Somerset

    THAT is one reason to get your sunspot data from SIDC although a few months behind the data is obtained from obsevatories using methods unchanged from certainly 1848 and more

    explanation here

    http://www.sidc.be/news/106/sunspotnumberclarified.pdf

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    Posted
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Hot sunny , cold and snowy, thunderstorms
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset

    Even if it is a spot i don't think it matters that much,

    we are still seeing very low activity, and would it have been visible using older techniques?

    having new ways to look at the sun is great, but also makes it harder to compare this downturn with past events.

    Long may it continue Posted Image

    I just like to see the spotless run continue & records broken, but as you say activity is still at very low levels.

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    Posted
  • Location: Coalpit Heath, South Gloucestershire
  • Location: Coalpit Heath, South Gloucestershire

    I just like to see the spotless run continue & records broken,

    Me, too. :whistling:

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    Posted
  • Location: Erith. SE London/kent 40m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Erith. SE London/kent 40m asl

    I just like to see the spotless run continue & records broken, but as you say activity is still at very low levels.

    Same here. http://nwstatic.co.uk/forum/public/style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/laugh.gif

    I must say though I have often wondered how many of the smaller sun spots were missed, particularly in the 1600s, which makes me suspect that the Maunder minimum wasn't possibly quite that low.

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    Posted
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Hot sunny , cold and snowy, thunderstorms
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset

    Same here. Posted Image

    I must say though I have often wondered how many of the smaller sun spots were missed, particularly in the 1600s, which makes me suspect that the Maunder minimum wasn't possibly quite that low.

    Well this sunspot wasn't missed

    Posted Image Posted ImageEmerging sunspot 1034 is a member of new Solar Cycle 24. Credit: SOHO/MDI

    http://spaceweather.com/

    End of run.

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    Posted
  • Location: portsmouth uk
  • Weather Preferences: extremes
  • Location: portsmouth uk

    Well this sunspot wasn't missed

    Posted Image Posted ImageEmerging sunspot 1034 is a member of new Solar Cycle 24. Credit: SOHO/MDI

    http://spaceweather.com/

    End of run.

    its a baby one lol infact its very tiny and not grown in number still only 13 so theres a chance this will be short lived.

    anyway found this dont know if its been seen yet but i will post it anyway very intresting indeed.

    http://wattsupwithth...ons/#more-13955

    :cold::cold:

    Edited by badboy657
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    Posted
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Hot sunny , cold and snowy, thunderstorms
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset

    Yes it doesn't look like it's going to last long, hope to be into spotless days after the weekend.

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    Posted
  • Location: Harrow (Fulwood), London, (Sheffield)
  • Location: Harrow (Fulwood), London, (Sheffield)

    Here's an interesting article that was mentioned by our local weather presenter Paul Hudson. Probably more suited for the climate thread but an interesting read none the less :)

    Feel free to move this were appropriate :)

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/paulhudson/

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    Posted
  • Location: portsmouth uk
  • Weather Preferences: extremes
  • Location: portsmouth uk

    Flux at 73 now

    yes but since the new spot emerged it still only 13 so its not growing infact its very small indeed.:D

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    Posted
  • Location: Erith. SE London/kent 40m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Erith. SE London/kent 40m asl

    Hi people, so how many days short are we to beat last years total? Could we be going spotless again next week I wonder? http://nwstatic.co.uk/forum/public/style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/wink.gif

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    Posted
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Hot sunny , cold and snowy, thunderstorms
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset

    Hi people, so how many days short are we to beat last years total? Could we be going spotless again next week I wonder? Posted Image

    Hi Snowray, sunspot 1034 is still hanging in there, but is not very active, may produce some B class flares, but over all remaining quiet.

    Solar flux has gone up though to 75, from 71 when it was spotless.

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    Posted
  • Location: portsmouth uk
  • Weather Preferences: extremes
  • Location: portsmouth uk

    Hi Snowray, sunspot 1034 is still hanging in there, but is not very active, may produce some B class flares, but over all remaining quiet.

    Solar flux has gone up though to 75, from 71 when it was spotless.

    yeah steve thats something ive found since the last bigger outbreak awhile ago the flux has stayed arount the 70mark,

    slowly its creeping up with each active moment so my thoughts are is cycle 24 well underway i think it is,

    last winter the flux was around 64 for a very longtime,

    it would be intresting what the highest flux was during cycle 23 and now id of thought there be a big difference.

    cycle 24 is absolutely supressed and sunspot number has dropped to 12 it was 13 from the start for 3 days,

    solar wind has dropped aswell but fux has risen so possible that we could have another region forming,

    maybe the current region will strengthen but not likely if its dropping already.:)

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    Posted
  • Location: ilminster Somerset
  • Location: ilminster Somerset

    it appears that 1034 has just chucked out a large flare tho not earth directed

    GEOALERT BRU347

    UGEOA 30512 91213 1257/ 9930/

    10132 20132 30132

    99999

    PLAIN

    NOTE: the above forecasts are valid from 1230UT, 13 Dec 2009 until 15 Dec 2009

    PREDICTIONS FOR 13 Dec 2009 10CM FLUX: 075 / AP: 003

    PREDICTIONS FOR 14 Dec 2009 10CM FLUX: 076 / AP: 003

    PREDICTIONS FOR 15 Dec 2009 10CM FLUX: 076 / AP: 001

    COMMENT: A flare occurred. At the moment of the flare peak, GOES14 does

    not provide any data of the X-ray flux. From EIT pictures, it is clear

    that NOAA AR 1034 is the source region. There are on disk signatures of

    an associated CME. Since the source region is not located near the disk

    centre, the CME is probably not Earth directed. In ACE data, we see a

    magnetic field reversal in the Bz-component. The geomagnetic conditions

    are quiet.

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    Posted
  • Location: portsmouth uk
  • Weather Preferences: extremes
  • Location: portsmouth uk

    just as i said it was declining its growing lol i think i keep my mouth shut lol.

    and as i said another region has indeed started but very intresting and still very low.

    flux76.

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    Posted
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Hot sunny , cold and snowy, thunderstorms
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset

    just as i said it was declining its growing lol i think i keep my mouth shut lol.

    and as i said another region has indeed started but very interesting and still very low.

    flux76.

    Looks like a little bit of micro spot activity is on the cards for the next few day's.

    Still time to surpass 2008 record though

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    Posted
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Hot sunny , cold and snowy, thunderstorms
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset

    Yes it has grown considerably in the last 24 hours.

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