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Posted
  • Location: South Yorkshire
  • Location: South Yorkshire

    Indeed. And just remember folks, if the predictions are correct, this isn't the main event! The next cycle, SC25 is where the fun truly begins!

    But I'll be a frail old man by then! Hope whoever's running the shop has sorted out a satisfactory winter cold weather payment.....

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    Just a few pics from early this morning at West Sands, St. Andrews  First one was 100iso eq @ f1.8 and 10 sec exposure, strong moonlight about midnight with the faintest of hint of an aurora.

    More shots here from Scotland last night. Fingers crossed again tonight as there is another predicted Kp7 ☺

    From Salon on the Isle Of Rum & The Isle Of Lewis tonight. Credit; Martin Keivers and Emma Mitchell.  

    Posted Images

    Posted
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Hot sunny , cold and snowy, thunderstorms
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset

    The sun has been void of sunspots for 4 days according to http://spaceweather.com/.

    Edited by SteveB
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    Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey

    Hi Folks

    Just back last night from my hols in Majorca...beautiful. Except last night and day as a LP area tracked to NW Italy and a mistral set up. We had very strong and gusty easterly winds and being on the east coast we crtainly felt it!!! I am doing a ot of catch up so will be fairly quiet for a few hours [great you may say!!]. Anyway I see that the sun yawned whilst I was away...no probs, a Maunder is coming...NOT a Dalton.

    BFTP

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    Posted
  • Location: Coalpit Heath, South Gloucestershire
  • Location: Coalpit Heath, South Gloucestershire

    Hi Folks

    Just back last night from my hols in Majorca...beautiful. Except last night and day as a LP area tracked to NW Italy and a mistral set up. We had very strong and gusty easterly winds and being on the east coast we crtainly felt it!!! I am doing a ot of catch up so will be fairly quiet for a few hours [great you may say!!]. Anyway I see that the sun yawned whilst I was away...no probs, a Maunder is coming...NOT a Dalton.

    BFTP

    Hi Blast

    nice to hear that you'll be quiet for a few hours that you had a good time, and welcome back. Yes, a great disappointment about the spot. http://nwstatic.co.uk/forum/public/style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/smiliz23.gif Still, it had to happen at some point, I suppose!

    If you have the time and inclination, would you mind giving us a quick run down on why you are plumping for a Maunder rather than a Dalton?

    Ta! :whistling:

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    Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey

    Hi Blast

    nice to hear that you'll be quiet for a few hours that you had a good time, and welcome back. Yes, a great disappointment about the spot. http://nwstatic.co.uk/forum/public/style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/smiliz23.gif Still, it had to happen at some point, I suppose!

    If you have the time and inclination, would you mind giving us a quick run down on why you are plumping for a Maunder rather than a Dalton?

    Ta! :whistling:

    Hi Noggin

    Take a read of this, Landscheidt. Particularly look at para 9 onwards. Other research suggests the same. 24 is already quieter than anticipated thus IMO supports the theory that the minima will be of Maunder proportions.

    http://www.schulphysik.de/klima/landscheidt/iceage.htm

    BFTP

    Edited by BLAST FROM THE PAST
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    Posted
  • Location: portsmouth uk
  • Weather Preferences: extremes
  • Location: portsmouth uk

    Hi Noggin

    Take a read of this, Landscheidt. Particularly look at para 9 onwards. Other research suggests the same. 24 is already quieter than anticipated thus IMO supports the theory that the minima will be of Maunder proportions.

    http://www.schulphys...eidt/iceage.htm

    BFTP

    what a post thats truely well put together piece of research ive also herd this fella is a very respected.

    and the outlook suggested in not so many words that the minimum has really started and to be honest i wondered if we where already in the deep minimum that was predicted for cycle 25.

    better get my flight ready for the tropics because it could get a little nippy lol.:whistling::phttp://nwstatic.co.uk/forum/public/style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/smiliz23.gif

    BFTP you may have to go back to majorca haha.

    Edited by badboy657
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    Posted
  • Location: Norton, Stockton-on-Tees
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and cold in winter, warm and sunny in summer
  • Location: Norton, Stockton-on-Tees

    what a post thats truely well put together piece of research ive also herd this fella is a very respected.

    Perhaps it should be was very respected, unfortunately he died a few years back (2004 I think).

    It is a very good paper and it's one of the first links I can remember downloading on this forum. Mr Landscheit has always had his followers, particularly this Russian Scientist:

    http://en.rian.ru/analysis/20080103/94768732.html

    As has been said many times, it is far too early to tell whether we are heading towards a Maunder minimum, but as David Frost says, "the clues are there".

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    Posted
  • Location: portsmouth uk
  • Weather Preferences: extremes
  • Location: portsmouth uk

    i did not know he is no longer with us.

    but i agree maybe its a little early to say in honesty this cycle seems like its just getting deeper and deeper but then if correct predictions cant be done accurately then perhapes the only thing to do i wait and see.

    but still very informative post by BFTP very intresting read but is the science acurate who knows but it makes sence.

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    Posted
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Hot sunny , cold and snowy, thunderstorms
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset

    We are now on 5 spotless days according to http://spaceweather.com/.

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    Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey

    i did not know he is no longer with us.

    but i agree maybe its a little early to say in honesty this cycle seems like its just getting deeper and deeper but then if correct predictions cant be done accurately then perhapes the only thing to do i wait and see.

    but still very informative post by BFTP very intresting read but is the science acurate who knows but it makes sence.

    Hi Badboy

    A M is quite correct, Dr Landscheidt died in 2004. However, his work and theories continue and so also do his predictions remain. He produced some stunning hits, even the 'sudden' end of El Nino in Feb 2007 nailed by him ...years in advance. [most big guns went for it to continue in June/July 2007].

    Currently this El Nino has not influenced or grown as expected thus far and this IMO is further signs of the solar and lunar cycle forcings at work ie -ve PDO, Perturbation cycle, GWO's theory that it will be a shortlived affair.

    I very very much agree with the theories that point towards very notable cooling by 2030.

    BFTP

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    Posted
  • Location: portsmouth uk
  • Weather Preferences: extremes
  • Location: portsmouth uk

    indeed he did predict the el nino longtime before it happened along with plenty of other events so really there is no reason why he could be wrong about his next prediction.

    and so far once again hes correct again and i for one have very high respect for him.

    im also very excited about his predictions for the future.

    its also very exciting that after our one recent spot,

    that its gone completely dead again.

    it looks very likely that we are heading into a minimum that could be below nasa,s peak maximum.

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    Posted
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Hot sunny , cold and snowy, thunderstorms
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset

    We have moved onto 6 days according to http://spaceweather.com/. One more day and that will chalk up the 200 for this year.

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    Posted
  • Location: Norton, Stockton-on-Tees
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and cold in winter, warm and sunny in summer
  • Location: Norton, Stockton-on-Tees

    And the 200 day mark has been reached. It seems that the sunspot last week was a temporary blip in an apparently prolonged silent spell.

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    Posted
  • Location: Tunbridge Wells, Kent
  • Location: Tunbridge Wells, Kent

    And the 200 day mark has been reached. It seems that the sunspot last week was a temporary blip in an apparently prolonged silent spell.

    It was barely a sunspot - makes me wonder if it would have been viewed at all 100 or 200 years ago

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    Posted
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Hot sunny , cold and snowy, thunderstorms
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset

    It was barely a sunspot - makes me wonder if it would have been viewed at all 100 or 200 years ago

    Well reading on other sites, some are doubting it would have been seen to be counted years ago.

    So should we not be looking at nearly 60 days rather than 7.

    Makes me wonder why they don't count both ways, the new way & the old way. I can't see any harm in that, especially as we are in a new era as far as observing the sun goes.

    Edited by SteveB
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    Posted
  • Location: Norton, Stockton-on-Tees
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and cold in winter, warm and sunny in summer
  • Location: Norton, Stockton-on-Tees

    its a spot and not really a tiny one either.

    Maybe I'm being a touch dim but isn't it about to disappear around the other side of the sun?
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    Posted
  • Location: portsmouth uk
  • Weather Preferences: extremes
  • Location: portsmouth uk

    Maybe I'm being a touch dim but isn't it about to disappear around the other side of the sun?

    you could be right indeed:yahoo:

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    Posted
  • Location: Tunbridge Wells, Kent
  • Location: Tunbridge Wells, Kent

    From what I have read it is a Class B flare - it isn't a spot. Yet.

    Not likely to be either - came from the region that contain spot 1025

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    Posted
  • Location: Larbert
  • Location: Larbert

    Posted Image

    Nice to see a flare happening, albeit a small one, and not earth directed!

    Solar flux reached the grand heights of 72 a few months back, now it's 69 - a little better than the 67 of recent.

    Edited by Mondy
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    Posted
  • Location: Norton, Stockton-on-Tees
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and cold in winter, warm and sunny in summer
  • Location: Norton, Stockton-on-Tees

    Another day bites the dust:

    http://www.spaceweather.com/

    8 spotless days in a row - another 6 weeks and we'll be up to 50 again!!

    We are sitting at 201 spotless days for the year (79%) and only need to have 66 more spotless days in the remainder of the year to beat last year, that's only 59%. Barring a sudden upturn in activity I reckon that 2009 has a chance to get into second place which is currently held by 1901 with 287 spotless days. To get to 288 requires us to maintain the 79% we currently sit at.

    Edited by Anti-Mild
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