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Just a few pics from early this morning at West Sands, St. Andrews  First one was 100iso eq @ f1.8 and 10 sec exposure, strong moonlight about midnight with the faintest of hint of an aurora.

More shots here from Scotland last night. Fingers crossed again tonight as there is another predicted Kp7 ☺

From Salon on the Isle Of Rum & The Isle Of Lewis tonight. Credit; Martin Keivers and Emma Mitchell.  

Posted Images

Posted
  • Location: Upper Tweeddale, Scottish Borders 240m ASL
  • Location: Upper Tweeddale, Scottish Borders 240m ASL

    Yes - even the lowest predicted dotted line looks to be in jeopardy!

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    Posted
  • Location: Norton, Stockton-on-Tees
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and cold in winter, warm and sunny in summer
  • Location: Norton, Stockton-on-Tees

    Is it me or is the latest prediction from NASA exactly the same as their last one? There seems to be a refusal to accept what is happening and adjust the prediction accordingly.

    Many thanks to all that have voted in the poll, general condensus seems to be that we are heading towards a Dalton-stylee minimum with some degree of global cooling.

    It seems rather strange to have been somewhat vindicated, particularly as I've been banging on about how GW is a myth for years to anyone who would listen!!!

    Anyway, back on topic....the current sunspot is fading and there remains doubt as to whether the farside spot is even a spot after all. More blank suns coming methinks!

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    Posted
  • Location: Somerset midway between Bath&Wells. Mendips 200m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and lots of it or warm and sunny, no mediocre dross
  • Location: Somerset midway between Bath&Wells. Mendips 200m asl

    [quote name='Anti-Mild' date='02 September 2009 - 18:22 ' timestamp='1251912136'

    Many thanks to all that have voted in the poll, general condensus seems to be that we are heading towards a Dalton-stylee minimum with some degree of global cooling.

    It seems rather strange to have been somewhat vindicated, particularly as I've been banging on about how GW is a myth for years to anyone who would listen!!!

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    Posted
  • Location: Pershore
  • Location: Pershore

    Please can we cut out the warmist/deniers name-calling. It's not pretty and it doesn't add to anybody's argument and it only serves to help discussions degenerate into name-calling. If you can't make a point without such language consider if the point you are trying to make is actually worth it and stands up to a decent standard of discussion.

    Can I also point out this thread is to discuss activity on the sun,predictions of activity and aurora. I've opened a thread in the more appropriate Climate Change area to discuss the effects of a quiet sun on our climate here:

    http://www.netweathe...c-consequences/

    Ta :)

    ^^

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    Posted
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Hot sunny , cold and snowy, thunderstorms
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset

    We have moved onto 1spotless day according to http://www.solarcycle24.com/index2.htm .

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    Posted
  • Location: Coalpit Heath, South Gloucestershire
  • Location: Coalpit Heath, South Gloucestershire

    We have moved onto 1spotless day according to http://www.solarcycle24.com/index2.htm .

    So here starts the next roller-coaster ride! :)

    Because I am a bit sad, I have worked out that to get to 50 spotless days from here, we must have no spots until 21st October. We have no idea if the recent spot was a hiccup in a long blank run or if it is the stirrings of the return of activity.

    Fun and games. Time will tell. :)

    PS Even more sadly, I have worked out that if we don't get any spots until Christmas Day, then it will have been 115 spotless days, which will be a record-breaker of a run!

    Edited by noggin
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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

    You must have jinxed it, nog! :)

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    Posted
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Hot sunny , cold and snowy, thunderstorms
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset

    So here starts the next roller-coaster ride! Posted Image

    Because I am a bit sad, I have worked out that to get to 50 spotless days from here, we must have no spots until 21st October. We have no idea if the recent spot was a hiccup in a long blank run or if it is the stirrings of the return of activity.

    Fun and games. Time will tell. Posted Image

    PS Even more sadly, I have worked out that if we don't get any spots until Christmas Day, then it will have been 115 spotless days, which will be a record-breaker of a run!

    I like your thinkingPosted Image

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    Posted
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Hot sunny , cold and snowy, thunderstorms
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset

    We have moved onto 2 spotless days according to http://www.solarcycle24.com/index2.htm .

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    Posted
  • Location: Somerset midway between Bath&Wells. Mendips 200m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and lots of it or warm and sunny, no mediocre dross
  • Location: Somerset midway between Bath&Wells. Mendips 200m asl

    Here's a paper showing the whole range of predictions made for cycle 24; it includes who made them, how they were made and the expected amplitude. Quite a few of them predict Solar max between 2009-2011, the Sun had better get a move on....

    http://www.springerlink.com/content/71r3833574172838/fulltext.pdf

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    Posted
  • Location: Coalpit Heath, South Gloucestershire
  • Location: Coalpit Heath, South Gloucestershire

    .......and here's some stuff from NASA..

    http://science.nasa.gov/headlines/y2009/03sep_sunspots.htm

    It's about current sunspot activity/lack thereof and magnetism.

    Even David Hathaway seems to be getting a bit excited, he says...

    "...the sun is behaving in an interesting way and I believe we are about to learn something new".

    How exciting is that, eh? :cold:

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    Posted
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Hot sunny , cold and snowy, thunderstorms
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset

    Maybe the graph for NASA's SC24 which has just been updated for September is due for a sudden amendment then?!Posted ImagePosted Image

    Reading on another forum, it's sounds like they may have amended it.

    But can't find the link to see.

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    Posted
  • Location: Norton, Stockton-on-Tees
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and cold in winter, warm and sunny in summer
  • Location: Norton, Stockton-on-Tees

    Reading on another forum, it's sounds like they may have amended it.

    But can't find the link to see.

    Do you have a link for that forum Steve?

    It seems to me that NASA are clinging to the idea that the maximum will be on the lower side of normal and seem to be unwilling to adjust their predictions to take account of current (not potential) conditions.

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    Posted
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Hot sunny , cold and snowy, thunderstorms
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset

    Where I saw on the forum was solarcycle24 message board.

    Someone said that they had adjusted the smoothed line???

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    Posted
  • Location: Larbert
  • Location: Larbert

    Yeah, it was mentioned on there some time back. A member there by the name "Michael Ronayne" kept a .GIF sequence on Wiki, and here it is:

    http://en.wikipedia....redict_NASA.gif

    It takes a bit of time to load up, but worth it to see all the predictions!

    Ps, Michael Ronayne got booted off SC24 forum for lashing out at other membersPosted Image

    Edit: here's some of his other stuff: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/User:Michael_Ronayne

    Edited by Mondy
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    Posted
  • Location: Norton, Stockton-on-Tees
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and cold in winter, warm and sunny in summer
  • Location: Norton, Stockton-on-Tees

    Yeah, it was mentioned on there some time back. A member there by the name "Michael Ronayne" kept a .GIF sequence on Wiki, and here it is:

    http://en.wikipedia....redict_NASA.gif

    It takes a bit of time to load up, but worth it to see all the predictions!

    Ps, Michael Ronayne got booted off SC24 forum for lashing out at other membersPosted Image

    Edit: here's some of his other stuff: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/User:Michael_Ronayne

    Interesting GIF there Mondy, amazing to see how their prediction has changed from forecasting a maximum of 150 all the way down to 90. Similarly the timeframe for the max has moved from 2010 to 2013/14.

    What it illustrates is that we are entering uncharted territory and NASA are as much in the dark as anybody else as to what is going to happen!

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    Posted
  • Location: Pershore
  • Location: Pershore

    Posts being deleted from this thread today as they're off topic - this isn't the place for climate change discussion..

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