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Posted
  • Location: Norton, Stockton-on-Tees
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and cold in winter, warm and sunny in summer
  • Location: Norton, Stockton-on-Tees

    Have found and copied from easternwx a comparison of our current solar minimum to the ones that commenced in 1896, 1909, and 1805 (Dalton).

    Can be seen that we are already passed the 1909 one. The first minimum at the start of the 1800s was reporting frequent, if not constant, zero sun spot months at this point. Atm we are perhaps in between the 1896 and 1805 scenarios? We might know by this time next year!

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    Interesting graph there Tamara, and I would suggest, like you, that we are probably between 1896 and 1805, although closer to 1896 just now. That will change if we reach the year end with still no activity.

    I'm no solar physicist, but I would suggest that the eventual sunspot maximum will be around 55-65 and should happen sometime in late 2012 (Mayan prophecy anyone? http://nwstatic.co.uk/forum/public/style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/laugh.gif ).

    It'll be interesting to see NASA's latest forecast as if I remember correctly the last one had us up into the 20's by this point, yet look....still nothing!!

    Speaking of, we're still spotless!!

    Edited by Anti-Mild
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    Just a few pics from early this morning at West Sands, St. Andrews  First one was 100iso eq @ f1.8 and 10 sec exposure, strong moonlight about midnight with the faintest of hint of an aurora.

    From Salon on the Isle Of Rum & The Isle Of Lewis tonight. Credit; Martin Keivers and Emma Mitchell.  

    More shots here from Scotland last night. Fingers crossed again tonight as there is another predicted Kp7 ☺

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    Guest North Sea Snow Convection

    Interesting graph there Tamara, and I would suggest, like you, that we are probably between 1896 and 1805, although closer to 1896 just now. That will change if we reach the year end with still no activity.

    I'm no solar physicist, but I would suggest that the eventual sunspot maximum will be around 55-65 and should happen sometime in late 2012 (Mayan prophecy anyone? Posted Image ).

    It'll be interesting to see NASA's latest forecast as if I remember correctly the last one had us up into the 20's by this point, yet look....still nothing!!

    Speaking of, we're still spotless!!

    Your prediction may well be right!Posted Image

    I have read some opinions that time is starting to run out in this minimum to attain a proper deep minimum but purely from looking at that graph it is not unreasonable to speculate that there is some extra mileage in it yet. And in the final analysis what matters is weakening the upside potential in C24 solar max as much as poss. Each day does a little more work. And yes - we have another spotless day. Yay!

    Slowly slowly catchy monkey an all thatPosted Image

    Btw - love your signature.Posted Image Very colourful !! Can't think where you got the idea from lol!?Posted ImagePosted ImagePosted Image

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    Posted
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Hot sunny , cold and snowy, thunderstorms
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset

    Your prediction may well be right!Posted Image

    I have read some opinions that time is starting to run out in this minimum to attain a proper deep minimum but purely from looking at that graph it is not unreasonable to speculate that there is some extra mileage in it yet. And in the final analysis what matters is weakening the upside potential in C24 solar max as much as poss. Each day does a little more work. And yes - we have another spotless day. Yay!

    Slowly slowly catchy monkey an all thatPosted Image

    Btw - love your signature.Posted Image Very colourful !! Can't think where you got the idea from lol!?Posted ImagePosted ImagePosted Image

    Can I ask why time is running out to attain a proper dee minimum?.

    Is it not possible to just go on spotless for Months if not years?. Unlikely I know, but possible.

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    Posted
  • Location: Norton, Stockton-on-Tees
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and cold in winter, warm and sunny in summer
  • Location: Norton, Stockton-on-Tees

    I've been doing a bit of mooching about, looking at what may be in store for us in terms of future climate as a result of the current sunspot minimum. Dr Hathaway said in late July that a Dalton style minimum with a peak of around 50 is possible ( http://www.gopexiles.com/?p=2760 ), and officially he and his NASA bunch have predicted a peak of 90 ( http://science.nasa.gov/headlines/y2009/29may_noaaprediction.htm ). My own thoughts are that we will end up around 55-65ish.

    With that in mind, here is a graph illustrating the smoothed sunspot activity over the last 400 years:

    post-2545-12517182507325_thumb.png

    As you can see the peaks during the Dalton minimum were around 55 and then 95. Taking a look at the temperature in Europe only over the last 1000 years:

    post-2545-12517184100544_thumb.png

    You can see that the Dalton minimum coincided with the so-called 'Dickens winters', where the temps across Europe were around 0.25c below the 1900-1999 mean.

    If we are moving towards another Dalton-type minimum we might expect temps across Europe to dip from the current level of approx. 0.15c above mean to around 0.25c below mean - a swing of 0.4c. If we take AGW into account, I don't think it's too liberal to theorise a swing of 0.3c.

    What might this mean for us in Britain? Well the mean annual CET for the period 1971-2000 is 9.75c. A downward adjustment of 0.3c results in a mean annual CET of 9.45c, not unlike the 1980's (average annual CET - 9.52C).

    Needless to say this is all harmless supposition and a lot depends on the depth of minimum and subsequent amplitude of maximum, but I have tried to be as impartial as I can possibly be - you can be the judge as to the success of this or not!! http://nwstatic.co.uk/forum/public/style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/laugh.gif

    Edited by Anti-Mild
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    Posted
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Hot sunny , cold and snowy, thunderstorms
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset

    Good post Antimild,as it currently stands I would say thats about right.

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    Guest North Sea Snow Convection

    Can I ask why time is running out to attain a proper dee minimum?.

    Is it not possible to just go on spotless for Months if not years?. Unlikely I know, but possible.

    I would have thought so as well StevePosted Image

    Just a pov I read from some folk on the easternwx forum that's all. Nothing that is necessarily substantiated at all. I think it is just possibly an opinion derived by looking at the average time span of other minimums

    I agree - a very good post from A-M.

    Assuming current trends persist - the climate speculation that might be triggered from this would be how much any AGW forcing would offset the negative feedback cooling from a deep solar minimum. Again, views will vary on this - my own is that the cooling feedback may be underestimated at the expense of the belief in man made activity. That is another reason why it is a good thing that solar behaviour continues to defy some predections - it may force a welcome re-evaluation and re-adjustment wrt to the scientific research on the position regarding future climate trendsPosted Image

    Edited by North Sea Snow Convection
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    Posted
  • Location: portsmouth uk
  • Weather Preferences: extremes
  • Location: portsmouth uk

    Can I ask why time is running out to attain a proper dee minimum?.

    Is it not possible to just go on spotless for Months if not years?. Unlikely I know, but possible.

    well steveb i dont agree i dont know but there is always a possibility we may already be in a minimum after all the sun is not following the script infact i strongly dissagree that times running out after all we only have 100 years or so of valid data and even that might be limited back in the earlier days.

    I would have thought so as well Steve:)

    Just a pov I read from some folk on the easternwx forum that's all. Nothing that is necessarily substantiated at all. I think it is just possibly an opinion derived by looking at the average time span of other minimums

    I agree - a very good post from A-M.

    Assuming current trends persist - the climate speculation that might be triggered from this would be how much any AGW forcing would offset the negative feedback cooling from a deep solar minimum. Again, views will vary on this - my own is that the cooling feedback may be underestimated at the expense of the belief in man made activity. That is another reason why it is a good thing that solar behaviour continues to defy some predections - it may force a welcome re-evaluation and re-adjustment wrt to the scientific research on the position regarding future climate trends:)

    totally agree :)

    and antimild excellent post cheers.:mellow:

    Edited by badboy657
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    Posted
  • Location: Norton, Stockton-on-Tees
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and cold in winter, warm and sunny in summer
  • Location: Norton, Stockton-on-Tees

    Thanks for the comments guys! I know that there is an element of hopecasting in my theory, but I do think that unless something remarkable occurs in terms of solar activity, Global Warming ought to be put on the back burner for the foreseaable and medium term future. Some have already made reference to this:

    http://alfin2100.blogspot.com/2009/08/no-sunspots-throw-climate-models-into.html

    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/science/the-missing-sunspots-is-this-the-big-chill-1674630.html

    http://whatreallyhappened.com/WRHARTICLES/globalwarming.html

    Although others, perhaps for fear of losing their apparently endless levels of funding, are dismissing what should be obvious:

    http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/8224543.stm

    http://www.desmogblog.com/skeptics-need-chill-about-global-cooling

    [eejits!!]

    Who knows, in 10-15 years we may have an accord in place to deal with global cooling! Swings and roundabouts say I, the world always needs a peril!

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    Posted
  • Location: Egham, Surrey
  • Location: Egham, Surrey

    Solarcycle24.com are saying there is a small sunspot in the northern hemisphere of the sun, but it doesn't look much to me :/ Anyone got any opinions on this? :)I hope its not going to get a number because I wanted this quiet to last just a bit longer. :rofl:

    http://www.solarcycle24.com/

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    Posted
  • Location: Larbert
  • Location: Larbert

    Posted Image

    Looking at it, I've seen similar or even smaller sized spots being given a number previously. Unless it shrinks overnight, I think we'll see the sunspot count rise soon Posted Image

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    Posted
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Hot sunny , cold and snowy, thunderstorms
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset

    Solarcycle24.com are saying there is a small sunspot in the northern hemisphere of the sun, but it doesn't look much to me :/ Anyone got any opinions on this? :)I hope its not going to get a number because I wanted this quiet to last just a bit longer. Posted Image

    http://www.solarcycle24.com/

    Yes I just saw that myself. Looks tiny to me, I guess SIDC will count it as they counted a sunspot in Late July putting this current run according to them at 30 days.

    It's whether NOAA officially count it that concerns me.

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    Posted
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex

    This sucks 100%. First it had to happen on aug 31 so we won't get a month officially with zero :[ second there i have been checking every morning sc24 and spaceweather but not this morning and missed a rare geomagnetic storm [admittedly not that big tho]

    This sunspot sucks, it's small ass but will still be counted and we haven't got to break the 52 record :rolleyes:

    I don't like SC 24, and it's the only solarcycle i lived thru really.

    if we had of got 0 this month nasa would have mved the min. making things more interesting.

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    Posted
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex

    Posted Image

    Looking at it, I've seen similar or even smaller sized spots being given a number previously. Unless it shrinks overnight, I think we'll see the sunspot count rise soon Posted Image

    hhm looks completely blank to me like a tuned out TV but i doubt im interpreting it right :unknw::rolleyes:

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    Posted
  • Location: just behind Epsom Racecourse and the center of York
  • Location: just behind Epsom Racecourse and the center of York

    Yes I just saw that myself. Looks tiny to me, I guess SIDC will count it as they counted a sunspot in Late July putting this current run according to them at 30 days.

    It's whether NOAA officially count it that concerns me.

    Does it matter? Our ability to see the smallest of sunspots today is vastly superior to that 15/20 years ago let alone early 1900's or earlier so who is to say this isn't already exceptional. The important thing is that we continue at a low level of activity and there is no sign of the sun getting to the level we saw previous. Better still will be the time we understand what causes these cycles so we can predict the cycle extent more closely

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    Posted
  • Location: Larbert
  • Location: Larbert

    hhm looks completely blank to me like a tuned out TV but i doubt im interpreting it right Posted ImagePosted Image

    It comes and goes. To do with passes ;-)

    Bookmark it and it'll show something else tomorrow!

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    Posted
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Hot sunny , cold and snowy, thunderstorms
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset

    Sunspot 1025, which emerged yesterday to interrupt a string of 51 spotless days, may already be fading away. http://www.spaceweather.com/

    Yep I am hoping it fades quickly so we can start spotless day count again.

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    Posted
  • Location: portsmouth uk
  • Weather Preferences: extremes
  • Location: portsmouth uk

    Sunspot 1025, which emerged yesterday to interrupt a string of 51 spotless days, may already be fading away. http://www.spaceweather.com/

    i think it makes me laugh how this spot has been counted its not really worth a count to be honest.

    but this maybe a turning point with another possible spot on the farside of the sun but it seems where have to wait until tomorrow.

    i also get the feeling that small spots are going to be counted simply because it wont do nasa,s credabilty any good in what can only be discribed as shakey predictions.

    but still very much in a deep minimum but the question is will this be the start of a upward trend fingers crossed it will only be a small upturn.

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    Posted
  • Location: Upper Tweeddale, Scottish Borders 240m ASL
  • Location: Upper Tweeddale, Scottish Borders 240m ASL

    I'm sure NASA and everybody else has a set criteria for what constitutes a sun spot and what doesn't? Why must there be a conspiracy in everything - it bores me to tears!

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