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Posted
  • Location: South of Glasgow 55.778, -4.086, 86m
  • Location: South of Glasgow 55.778, -4.086, 86m

    SC24.com tends to be the place where news reports do make it: http://solarcycle24com.proboards.com/index.cgi?board=general&action=display&thread=479

    SC24.com is Canadian based. I know this because the owner is my buddy Kevin Posted Image

    Thanks for that.
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    Just a few pics from early this morning at West Sands, St. Andrews  First one was 100iso eq @ f1.8 and 10 sec exposure, strong moonlight about midnight with the faintest of hint of an aurora.

    From Salon on the Isle Of Rum & The Isle Of Lewis tonight. Credit; Martin Keivers and Emma Mitchell.  

    More shots here from Scotland last night. Fingers crossed again tonight as there is another predicted Kp7 ☺

    Posted Images

    Posted
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Hot sunny , cold and snowy, thunderstorms
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset

    The reason for the discrepancy is because there are two different counts and the objectiveness involved in measuring the tiny sun-specks. NOAA didn't count the spot in July last year but SIDC did. SIDC are the people who keep the historical record which is what is used in the link you posted.

    Thanks for that info.

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    Posted
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Hot sunny , cold and snowy, thunderstorms
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset

    We have moved onto 42 spotless days.

    Currently joint 8th in spotless days since 1849.

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    Posted
  • Location: Coalpit Heath, South Gloucestershire
  • Location: Coalpit Heath, South Gloucestershire

    http://users.telenet.be/j.janssens/Spotless/Spotless.html

    Just a quick re-link to "spotless days", to save having to trawl back through the thread. As fozi999 said (way back when we were on 28days), the September update will be interesting!

    Don't want to say too much re spots etc. for fear of what might happen.......I don't want to put the old hoodoo on it! :):)

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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

    Interesting though isn't it noggin?? :D

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    Posted
  • Location: Somerset midway between Bath&Wells. Mendips 200m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and lots of it or warm and sunny, no mediocre dross
  • Location: Somerset midway between Bath&Wells. Mendips 200m asl

    Not sure if this has been posted before (too many pages to trawl back through...)lots of stuff to digest:

    http://personal.inet.fi/tiede/tilmari/sunspots.html#alert

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    Posted
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex

    43 days now according to spaceweather, or 42. Some interesting new information on spaceather showing decline in sunspot magnetic fields from 1992, with some reference to maunder minimum, and link to article.

    Hope we break 92 days, i think we'd the sun would have to break this to be of significant and immediate newsworthy attention.

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    Posted
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Hot sunny , cold and snowy, thunderstorms
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset

    We have moved onto 43 spotless days.

    Putting us joint 7th according to http://users.telenet.be/j.janssens/Spotless/Spotless.html since 1849.

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    Posted
  • Location: Somerset midway between Bath&Wells. Mendips 200m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and lots of it or warm and sunny, no mediocre dross
  • Location: Somerset midway between Bath&Wells. Mendips 200m asl
    Posted
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Hot sunny , cold and snowy, thunderstorms
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset

    Lots more info here to digest, according to Prof C de Jager, the Sun isn't going to be very active for quite some time to come.

    http://www.cdejager....astp-71-239.pdf

    http://www.cdejager....astp-71-194.pdf

    http://www.cdejager....nethjgeosci.pdf

    http://www.cdejager.com/about/

    That is a lot to read,

    Cheers Jethro

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    Posted
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Hot sunny , cold and snowy, thunderstorms
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset

    http://www.solarcycle24.com/index2.htm has moved onto 45 spotless days.

    That puts us joint 6th according to http://users.telenet.be/j.janssens/Spotless/Spotless.html since 1849.

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    Guest North Sea Snow Convection

    Apparently, historical accounts of Total Solar Eclipses during the Maunder made little or no reference to the visibility of the Corona. It's known from studies of other Solar type stars that coronal activity seems to wane greatly during protracted magnetic minima.

    I have also read that the recent eclipse in Asia and did show a pretty much classical Solar Min corona which implies I think that for the moment at least that we are not headed into a Maunder like minimum. Hopefully that implication is wrong!!Posted Image

    Edited by North Sea Snow Convection
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    Posted
  • Location: portsmouth uk
  • Weather Preferences: extremes
  • Location: portsmouth uk

    Apparently, historical accounts of Total Solar Eclipses during the Maunder made little or no reference to the visibility of the Corona. It's known from studies of other Solar type stars that coronal activity seems to wane greatly during protracted magnetic minima.

    I have also read that the recent eclipse in Asia and did show a pretty much classical Solar Min corona which implies I think that for the moment at least that we are not headed into a Maunder like minimum. Hopefully that implication is wrong!!Posted Image

    to be honest i dont think we can predict this minimum,

    its a case of wait and see but theres plenty going on and plenty supporting a deep minimum considering where not ment to be in the deep minimum yet its very impressive indeed.

    so if cycle 25 is ment to be the true minimum then it could be even more intresting,

    this cycle 24 could stay this minimum right until the end no one knows for sure.

    also possible that this cycle could be the deep cycle instead of cycle 25,

    but its a case of wait and see.

    what i have noticed is that some of the bigger orgnisations like nasa have got it wrong purely because they cant predict the unpredictable.

    after all this cycle was soposed to be a maximum with above average activity well from what i can see its far from correct.

    so anybody that tells me that where not going to head into a maunder style minimum,

    id say you dont know that,

    no one does anything is possible.

    there some great posts and links futher back through this thread,

    by some very impresive scientists its worth reading because most have very good opions which could well be valid.

    but at the moment its very very low and not looking like its going to burst into extreme activity its a case of wait and see.

    but my opion is that this is a little more than even the best scientists expected.:pardon::D

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    Guest North Sea Snow Convection

    Oh I agree with you - I am simply posting some information I have seen on reading around this topicPosted Image

    Wrt NASA, they have indeed not been able to predict the solar cycle pattern with any accuracy and reality has been some way from their predictions of a year and more ago that C24 would have truly kicked in by now. They predicted C24 to be an active solar cycle but now have ratcheted down those expectations with some admission that C25 would be that bit weaker still.

    That might just prove to be another overstatement the way things are going - but like others, I don't want to jinx fate and wake up the sun!Posted Image

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    Posted
  • Location: Bethnal Green
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and Cold
  • Location: Bethnal Green

    It's all very exciting isn't it?

    WRT NASA and Hathaway, they must be due to update their prediction soon. How low can it go?

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    Posted
  • Location: Larbert
  • Location: Larbert

    Hathaway has moved the goalposts at every possible opportunity. The fact of the matter is nobody knows what is going on with re: SC24, not even NASA Solar Physicists

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    Guest North Sea Snow Convection

    It's all very exciting isn't it?

    WRT NASA and Hathaway, they must be due to update their prediction soon. How low can it go?

    I think they did an update fairly recently??Posted Image A quick scan of their page should say when it was.

    A 6 August link here anyway

    http://solarb.msfc.nasa.gov/

    Edited by North Sea Snow Convection
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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

    Hathaway has moved the goalposts at every possible opportunity. The fact of the matter is nobody knows what is going on with re: SC24, not even NASA Solar Physicists

    Good point, Monds...None of us knows!!

    We'll all need to 'wait and see'? :pardon:

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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

    I dont think anyone is pretending to know

    are they...?

    No Tamara, we don't know. Neither me, you, nor anyone-else knows...If we did, we'd be God? :rofl:

    On many things I agree with you, Tamara; but, on other things I don't...I cannot just 'pat you on the back' all the time, can I? When I'm discussing things on here, it's not as a moderator; it's just as someone who doesn't agree with 'everything' that everyone says. okay?

    Please Tamara - if you have a 'problem' with me, PM me. I'm not an ogre??? :rofl:

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    Guest North Sea Snow Convection

    No Tamara, we don't know. Neither me, you, nor anyone-else knows...If we did, we'd be God? Posted Image

    On many things I agree with you, Tamara; but, on other things I don't...I cannot just 'pat you on the back' all the time, can I? When I'm discussing things on here, it's not as a moderator; it's just as someone who doesn't agree with 'everything' that everyone says. okay?

    Please Tamara - if you have a 'problem' with me, PM me. I'm not an ogre??? Posted Image

    Genuinely not sure what this 'agreement' business has to do with anything?Posted Image Neither expect or want a 'pat on the back' from you for anything. Hardly natural is it?

    In fact, it just might be that, sometimes, no reply or comment to follow at all might be better...and much more normal . Much as most posters receive.

    Back on topic ....

    ...that link I just placed from NASA stresses that as as yet there is nothing 'abnormal' about C24. The cycle seems to be behaving in a 'Dalton' like way from my reading of it, but again we have to wait and see. The Corona is indicated as a feature of all but the deepest min cycles - might be worth digging around to try and find out a bit more about this.

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    Posted
  • Location: Norton, Stockton-on-Tees
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and cold in winter, warm and sunny in summer
  • Location: Norton, Stockton-on-Tees

    Back on topic ....

    ...that link I just placed from NASA stresses that as as yet there is nothing 'abnormal' about C24. The cycle seems to be behaving in a 'Dalton' like way from my reading of it, but again we have to wait and see. The Corona is indicated as a feature of all but the deepest min cycles - might be worth digging around to try and find out a bit more about this.

    Now I'm getting on a bit - memory not what it used to be and all that - but that bit seems to contradict something I'm sure I read in early 2008. I'm sure Mr Hathaway stated then that C24 wasn't abnormal but if things hadn't picked up by January 2009 then it might start to cause some concern amongst solar physicists.

    I reckon Mr Hathaway's going to need a really good chiropractor as his back must be shot to pieces with the amount of times he has shifted the goalposts!!!!

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    Posted
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex

    YEP! saw that shortly after came out but i had doubts, they were far too quick deciding things were picking up, they sure got that wrong!

    one more week and we will have broken the [suspicious] 52 day record for this solar cycle according to spaceweather.

    about half way to breaking the record of 92 spotless dating back to 1849.

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    Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey

    I think that the statement that this behaviour of the cycle is not abnormal is due to the fact that indeed the sun does have deep minimas and so what is happening is 'normal'. However, how its behaving compared to some projections is very different...but many have forecast a deep minima to arrive...and what we have isn't a true deep minima yet...but its heading that way.

    BFTP

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