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Posted
  • Location: just behind Epsom Racecourse and the center of York
  • Location: just behind Epsom Racecourse and the center of York

    the thing is with a deep solar minimum would recent warming be enough to curb any ice age?

    maybe a little as been suggested by some,

    it all depends on how long it stays in a minimum for,

    if a maunder is possible then it could be a very longtime of cooling.

    but its true we would adapt but war would could well break out poverty would be terrible it would be the biggest test in a very longtime.

    id asume we would all have to migrate to nearer the tropical regions,

    but what does make me laugh is that where is the plans if this kind of event happened,

    lets be honest imagine millions of people all moving south:shok:.

    plenty of money being pumped into warming but what about cooling.

    of coarse id like to see dickings winters and this seem more and more likely right now,

    and i dont think its worth the panic yet as ice ages take years infact maybe hundreds of years.

    but to be honest there is nothing we can do the sun will do what it wants as we can all see its very dramatic right now.

    and also a big pat on the back for those that where predicting this some years back:hi: .

    so it goes to show the biggest like nasa with the most money even they cant predict the unpredictable :cold:.

    question is how much longer will this go on for?

    I think talking of a new ice age is a little premature.

    Certainly we may see a significant cooler climate than the last twenty years and even if we ended up with a minimum similar to that experienced in the late 1700's early 1800's when the thames froze in winter we would adapt. We are all capable of growing our own food to some extent, agriculture would adapt and regions of the world that at present find growing crops difficult would find that they are able to do so.

    The real issue is can the politicians adapt and accept that this scenario is a real possibility and take the necessary steps to plan for five, ten, fifteen years hence when this minimum maybe be really beginning to bite.

    As far as this winter is concerned I believe we shall see a similar scenario to last winter but with a greater chance of widespread snow. Cooler but not yet 47 or 63

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    Just a few pics from early this morning at West Sands, St. Andrews  First one was 100iso eq @ f1.8 and 10 sec exposure, strong moonlight about midnight with the faintest of hint of an aurora.

    More shots here from Scotland last night. Fingers crossed again tonight as there is another predicted Kp7 ☺

    From Salon on the Isle Of Rum & The Isle Of Lewis tonight. Credit; Martin Keivers and Emma Mitchell.  

    Posted Images

    Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Location: Manchester

    Hi and welcome to the forum.

    I think the full effects of the current solar minimum will not be felt for another few years.

    I believe there is a 4-5yr lag.

    Thats not to say this Winter is not going to be cold, because there is other factors that effect or Weather.

    That's interesting, I often wondered whether there was a lag effect. So we should be seeing some tangible effects in the next couple of years! I am looking forward to that!

    Karyo

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    Posted
  • Location: North Worcestershire, Midlands. 73m A.S.L.
  • Location: North Worcestershire, Midlands. 73m A.S.L.

    Got me hooked tooPosted Image

    And me, this thread is getting very interesting. Posted Image

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    Posted
  • Location: Tunbridge Wells, Kent
  • Location: Tunbridge Wells, Kent

    the thing is with a deep solar minimum would recent warming be enough to curb any ice age?

    maybe a little as been suggested by some,

    it all depends on how long it stays in a minimum for,

    if a maunder is possible then it could be a very longtime of cooling.

    but its true we would adapt but war would could well break out poverty would be terrible it would be the biggest test in a very longtime.

    id asume we would all have to migrate to nearer the tropical regions,

    but what does make me laugh is that where is the plans if this kind of event happened,

    lets be honest imagine millions of people all moving south:shok:.

    plenty of money being pumped into warming but what about cooling.

    of coarse id like to see dickings winters and this seem more and more likely right now,

    and i dont think its worth the panic yet as ice ages take years infact maybe hundreds of years.

    but to be honest there is nothing we can do the sun will do what it wants as we can all see its very dramatic right now.

    and also a big pat on the back for those that where predicting this some years back:hi: .

    so it goes to show the biggest like nasa with the most money even they cant predict the unpredictable :whistling:.

    question is how much longer will this go on for?

    However quiet the sun gets, we still get most of our warmth in the winter from the atlantic so unless the NAD shuts down at the same time, our weather will be moderated by this influence.

    I would expect any deep minima to produce unsettled, and eventually cooler shorter summers (are we already in that trend?)

    Winters will be severe if we get frequent northerly or easterly incursions, however winters where we get most of our weather from a westerly direction wouldn't be hugely different. We would see an increase in frontal snow (seen in the last 2 winters for the first time in a while) as moist air bumps into continental air on a more regular basis

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    Posted
  • Location: Coalpit Heath, South Gloucestershire
  • Location: Coalpit Heath, South Gloucestershire

    Thanks for the info guys. Just one more question , this is probaly off topic but is there any signs of factors that will point towards a cold winter this year? i also heard that there is a large area of cold waters in the north atlantic , IF this true could this have any effects on the upcoming winter , i.e. less influence from the atlantic?

    Well the Jet Stream is behaving in a very "southerly" way of late. IMVHO, it could be that which has been causing the extreme cold in the north-eastern USA. Also, could it be the southerly Jet which has prevented us here from having a very hot (barbeque, even) Summer, by restricting the worst/best of the Summer heat to continental Europe? Would a southerly Jet do the same in the Winter, keeping the warm Atlantic induced weather to the south, thereby allowing the cold Arctic air to slip down over us? Could well do, IMVHO.

    Ah, questions, questions. Who has the answers? Nobody. We can prognosticate, if we are so inclined, but really only time will tell.

    Haven't seen any of this reported in the media yet....ho hum. :whistling:

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    Posted
  • Location: Coalpit Heath, South Gloucestershire
  • Location: Coalpit Heath, South Gloucestershire

    However quiet the sun gets, we still get most of our warmth in the winter from the atlantic so unless the NAD shuts down at the same time, our weather will be moderated by this influence.

    But if the Atlantic gets it's heat from the Sun, then would not a cooler Atlantic contribute towards cooler climes for us, given that SSTs affect the weather?

    I read something recently about the current (excuse pun)behaviour of the NAD, I'll try and get a link. :whistling:

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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

    I think it's fair to say that we are all speculating here (I certainly am!); as, as yet, there hasn't been any significant global cooling? Yes, the kinks in the jetstream are positioned such that parts of the USA have had a cool summer, and SSTs are depressed in parts of the North Atlantic...

    But, should the Sun be still spotless this time next year, things may get quite interesting indeed?? http://nwstatic.co.uk/forum/public/style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/laugh.gif

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    Posted
  • Location: portsmouth uk
  • Weather Preferences: extremes
  • Location: portsmouth uk

    yet another day passes no spot no coronal holes solar wind has picked up but not nothing dramatic.

    as to jet stream indeed we have seen a remarkable trend with jet going walka bouts down south,

    its funny because i remember watching a documentry about one of our recent poor summers.

    also remember in that documentry that they where predicting the jet was moving futher and futher north haha well shows how wrong they are now,

    but they where right in the years before that the jet was moving north much futher.

    i think there something around the arctic thats bumping the jet south and someone was talking about the gulf stream and sea temps this is true also it been proven that the gulf stream also has decreased by atleast 30% i wonder if all this will be helped along but a deep minimum http://nwstatic.co.uk/forum/public/style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/laugh.gif.

    it is to soon to talk ice age ofcoarse,

    but its just a shame that in the time of low sunspots and ice ages we dont have the same kind of data we have now it would of been fab to know in what way a minimum effect our climate,

    but ofcoarse we did not have the tec in them days but we do have pretty strong evidence this has cause deep cooling in the past along side volcanic activity which also has shown some pretty impressive eruptions this year perhapes helping along side cooling.

    ofcoarse we might all be wrong with perhapes other factors causing our poor summers and it would seem summers have been poor because of the jet stream but does the jet work in sync with the sun possible and ofcoarse slight temp drops would cause weather patterns to change.

    theres lots to dive into but number 1 in the charts is the sun,

    as for the media a little more time is needed if this continues low like it is now,

    then i think it might start to hit the headlines.:D

    but one thing we should remember that the cold winter of 08/09 could have been a freak event,

    i hope im wrong but its clear that last winter the stratospheric warming event was something special was this because of the minima?

    as it stand right now there are other things going on i also noticed the el nino forming in the pacific has slightly decreased whether this continues is one to watch for.

    hurricaines have picked up in the alantic and dropped of in the pacific this has been fairly sudden aswell i just gotta feeling the sun is doing its up most to spoil the warming party.

    i could go on forever such an amazing topic amazing.:D

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    Posted
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Hot sunny , cold and snowy, thunderstorms
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset

    Still on 39spotless days, hopefully an update this afternoon.

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    Guest North Sea Snow Convection

    There won't be the most significant effects of solar lag for a few years yet, so not worth expecting too much in the shorter term, although having said that trends wrt to the jetstream coming south can't be ignored. However, cooling effects from such synoptic changes will take a few years to feed through - much as it took till the end of the eighties before we saw a significant change in terms of temps rising in accordance with a more active solar cycle and +PDO effects etc.

    But the longer this quietness goes on, then the more interesting it gets regarding future times. Very interesting indeed!Posted Image

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    Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey

    Slow down guys and girls! I think we might be jumping the gun as all is speculaltion. Pete is right how much cooling have we seen? I think slight but downward is the movement. The real question for me is "How deep will this minima eventually be?" I am and have been for some time, convinced that we are going into 'at least' a Dalton Minima if not a Sporer/Maunder.

    Will it affect this winter...my projection is that the jet has been shifting south [and we have seen this happen before our eyes!] and this will continue/remain and thus a colder regime is heading our way. I have read GWO reseacrh and also researched astrophysicists predictions and I go along with a return of 40 - 70s NH regime initially with much colder conditions come cycle 25.

    Very interesting regarding Archibald, similar global outcome to GWO? A shifting of the HP belt by 300 miles?

    With reference to the crop situation, I think that if you look closely enough you will see that last couple of years the growing season has been greatly affected notably the US/Canada. Anyone notice how butter, eggs, pasta etc are all shooting up in price?

    Anyway, the sun remains very quiet....but let's not talk of ice ages.....not yet.

    BFTP

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    Posted
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Hot sunny , cold and snowy, thunderstorms
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset

    Slow down guys and girls! I think we might be jumping the gun as all is speculaltion. Pete is right how much cooling have we seen? I think slight but downward is the movement. The real question for me is "How deep will this minima eventually be?" I am and have been for some time, convinced that we are going into 'at least' a Dalton Minima if not a Sporer/Maunder.

    Will it affect this winter...my projection is that the jet has been shifting south [and we have seen this happen before our eyes!] and this will continue/remain and thus a colder regime is heading our way. I have read GWO reseacrh and also researched astrophysicists predictions and I go along with a return of 40 - 70s NH regime initially with much colder conditions come cycle 25.

    Very interesting regarding Archibald, similar global outcome to GWO? A shifting of the HP belt by 300 miles?

    With reference to the crop situation, I think that if you look closely enough you will see that last couple of years the growing season has been greatly affected notably the US/Canada. Anyone notice how butter, eggs, pasta etc are all shooting up in price?

    Anyway, the sun remains very quiet....but let's not talk of ice ages.....not yet.

    BFTP

    Agree with that, but while I think we are not going to see true solar Minimum winters yet, it will be interesting to see if the cooling trend continues, ie lower CET Months in Winter to what we have been used to over the last 15-20yrs. It's happening in the Summer Months over the last 3yrs. And it happened for the first time this Winter just gone, we need that trend to continue this Winter.

    Edited by SteveB
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    Posted
  • Location: Coalpit Heath, South Gloucestershire
  • Location: Coalpit Heath, South Gloucestershire

    Anyway, the sun remains very quiet....but let's not talk of ice ages.....not yet.

    BFTP

    I agree. Wholeheartedly. http://nwstatic.co.uk/forum/public/style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/laugh.gif

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    Posted
  • Location: Tunbridge Wells, Kent
  • Location: Tunbridge Wells, Kent

    But if the Atlantic gets it's heat from the Sun, then would not a cooler Atlantic contribute towards cooler climes for us, given that SSTs affect the weather?

    I read something recently about the current (excuse pun)behaviour of the NAD, I'll try and get a link. http://nwstatic.co.uk/forum/public/style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/laugh.gif

    I think the lag between minimum and cooler oceans would be much greater than the effect on land and air temperatures.

    It is possible that other factors may be contributing to the slowdown or shutdown of the NAD and I remain openminded about that.

    A deep minimum and an NAD shutdown simultaneously would have devastating effects on the lives and economies of North West Europe.

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    Guest North Sea Snow Convection

    Haven't suggested there has been any cooling - just commenting on the possibilities for the future.

    Speculating on this is just speculation but it is no different to speculating about the aeffects of assumed AGW hypothesis either.

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    Posted
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex

    40 days blank, does that put us in the top ten?! but still the record of 92 remains a long way off, i'd be surprised if it broke that as it would be a pretty Sure signal of times to come, i would expect to hit the headlines with something about an ice age-- not to be taken Too seriously [don't forget the deep minimum of 1913 caused no ice age, just a small degree of cooling] but then i imagine few would take it remotely seriously enough.

    here's to hoping for some good winters in the coming decade.http://nwstatic.co.uk/forum/public/style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/laugh.gif

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    Posted
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Hot sunny , cold and snowy, thunderstorms
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset

    We have moved onto 40 spotless days, and it puts us joint 10th on spotless days since 1849

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    Posted
  • Location: Norton, Stockton-on-Tees
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and cold in winter, warm and sunny in summer
  • Location: Norton, Stockton-on-Tees

    We have moved onto 40 spotless days, and it puts us joint 10th on spotless days since 1849

    I think if we have still had no spots by the 2nd of September that would put us 3rd all time. This time next week we'll be 5th equal.

    As concerned as I am about the depth of minimum we possibly face, I'll feel a sense of disappointment if this stretch doesn't make it past 50 days http://nwstatic.co.uk/forum/public/style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/blink.gif !

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    Posted
  • Location: Tunbridge Wells, Kent
  • Location: Tunbridge Wells, Kent

    [don't forget the deep minimum of 1913 caused no ice age, just a small degree of cooling]

    here's to hoping for some good winters in the coming decade.http://nwstatic.co.uk/forum/public/style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/laugh.gif

    1916/1917

    DJFMA

    1.9 / 1.6 / 0.9 / 3.2 / 5.4

    Can you imagine this site if that was repeated!!! http://nwstatic.co.uk/forum/public/style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/blink.gif

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    Posted
  • Location: warwick 74m. asl
  • Weather Preferences: WHITE GOLD
  • Location: warwick 74m. asl

    1916/1917

    DJFMA

    1.9 / 1.6 / 0.9 / 3.2 / 5.4

    Can you imagine this site if that was repeated!!! Posted Image

    I was about to look for at, cheersPosted Image

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    Posted
  • Location: Larbert
  • Location: Larbert

    You may find this of interest. It's a power point presentation from Hathaway dated August 15: http://solarscience.msfc.nasa.gov/presentations/20090815_Hamfest.ppt

    Haven't had time to read it all, so jot down anything you think will be a good addition to the thread.

    Alternate link: http://solarscience.msfc.nasa.gov/presentations.shtml

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    Posted
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Hot sunny , cold and snowy, thunderstorms
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset

    I think if we have still had no spots by the 2nd of September that would put us 3rd all time. This time next week we'll be 5th equal.

    As concerned as I am about the depth of minimum we possibly face, I'll feel a sense of disappointment if this stretch doesn't make it past 50 days Posted Image !

    Yes I kind off want it to go on and on, but equally things could get serious if it does.

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    Posted
  • Location: warwick 74m. asl
  • Weather Preferences: WHITE GOLD
  • Location: warwick 74m. asl

    Anyone know if the 1972 seahorse flare affected the world weather.

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    Posted
  • Location: Larbert
  • Location: Larbert

    Did the biggest ever recorded flare in 2003 (X40) affect the weather ?

    X17 was recorded a few weeks prior to the biggie.

    The seahorse flare was two M-class flares I think.

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    Posted
  • Location: warwick 74m. asl
  • Weather Preferences: WHITE GOLD
  • Location: warwick 74m. asl

    Arrrrr yes. Delta X-Ray have we lost 30% of the NAD, if so then things will surely cool down!Posted Image sorry if off topic

    Edited by fozfoster
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