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Posted
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Hot sunny , cold and snowy, thunderstorms
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset

    31 days with out an official Sunspot.

    http://solarcycle24.com/

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    Just a few pics from early this morning at West Sands, St. Andrews  First one was 100iso eq @ f1.8 and 10 sec exposure, strong moonlight about midnight with the faintest of hint of an aurora.

    More shots here from Scotland last night. Fingers crossed again tonight as there is another predicted Kp7 ☺

    From Salon on the Isle Of Rum & The Isle Of Lewis tonight. Credit; Martin Keivers and Emma Mitchell.  

    Posted Images

    Posted
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Hot sunny , cold and snowy, thunderstorms
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset

    Brilliant! We have now entered the longest period without sunspots in the current minimum!

    Karyo

    I am sure I read some where that the longest recorded period without any activity is 39 day's back in the 1920's.

    Actually looking over the internet, it semms 91 days is the longest recorded period without any activity

    Does anyone know why there seems to be a general consensis that sun spot activity should start to increase soon?.

    Edited by SteveB
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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Location: Manchester

    I am sure I read some where that the longest recorded period without any activity is 39 day's back in the 1920's.

    Does anyone know why there seems to be a general consensis that sun spot activity should start to increase soon?.

    hi Steve,

    according to an earlier post from fozi, 'Longest spotless days streak ever recorded is 92 days from 08 April 1913 - 08 July 1913.'

    The current period is the second longest since 1913 which is pretty remarkable in itself!

    I think they are expecting activity to increase because the current minimum has lasted longer than normal anyway but of course there's no guarantee!

    Karyo

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    Posted
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Hot sunny , cold and snowy, thunderstorms
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset

    hi Steve,

    according to an earlier post from fozi, 'Longest spotless days streak ever recorded is 92 days from 08 April 1913 - 08 July 1913.'

    The current period is the second longest since 1913 which is pretty remarkable in itself!

    I think they are expecting activity to increase because the current minimum has lasted longer than normal anyway but of course there's no guarantee!

    Karyo

    I just edited my previous post with the 92 day period.

    I must admit it is getting rather interesting regarding no sunspots, still a long way to go to beat 92.

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Location: Manchester

    I just edited my previous post with the 92 day period.

    I must admit it is getting rather interesting regarding no sunspots, still a long way to go to beat 92.

    Indeed, but it would be nice to achieve it at some point! What I find very interesting is that this protracted spell of no sunspots came straight after the emergence of a cycle 23 sunspot. Until that point, we had cycle 24 sunspots every few days...

    Karyo

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    Posted
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Hot sunny , cold and snowy, thunderstorms
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset

    Now standing at 32 spotless days.

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    Posted
  • Location: Coalpit Heath, South Gloucestershire
  • Location: Coalpit Heath, South Gloucestershire

    http://ncwatch.typepad.com/dalton_minimum_returns/2009/02/no-warming-until-after-2014-and-maybe-not-then-.html

    I think this article/abstract* deserves another outing, in view of the current quiet spell. It was published in February in the Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics. Perhaps the Dalton-type minimum is looking even more likely now that we are 6 months further on? Cooler times for 60-100 years?

    *Almost forgot my manners! Article by C. de Jager and S. Duhau.

    Very interesting stuff! :yahoo:

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    Posted
  • Location: Coalpit Heath, South Gloucestershire
  • Location: Coalpit Heath, South Gloucestershire

    http://theresilientearth.com/?q=content/little-ice-age-ii-sequel

    Interesting article here, re sunspots and the Little Ice Age. Note that it was written 2 months ago, so the slight increase in solar activity has been and gone. Very interesting (and a bit concerning) is the effect that the cold Summer has had on crops in America and Canada.

    I truly believe that we are headed for a colder future and that is what we should be preparing for.

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    Posted
  • Location: New York City
  • Location: New York City

    When I look at their top graph I just get the feeling that the prediction/projected line is a bit far fetched. I think it looks like it will be longer until the max and less active.

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    Posted
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Hot sunny , cold and snowy, thunderstorms
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset

    http://theresiliente...e-age-ii-sequel

    Interesting article here, re sunspots and the Little Ice Age. Note that it was written 2 months ago, so the slight increase in solar activity has been and gone. Very interesting (and a bit concerning) is the effect that the cold Summer has had on crops in America and Canada.

    I truly believe that we are headed for a colder future and that is what we should be preparing for.

    Yes that is an interesting read, I like the bit about in the deepest minima in modern history, and as you say this was written over 2 Months ago and we are currently in another long period without sun spots.

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    Posted
  • Location: Coalpit Heath, South Gloucestershire
  • Location: Coalpit Heath, South Gloucestershire

    When I look at their top graph I just get the feeling that the prediction/projected line is a bit far fetched. I think it looks like it will be longer until the max and less active.

    I agree, Hiya. Here http://solarcycle24com.proboards.com/index.cgi?board=archive&action=display&thread=362 is something which has been put together rather well and shows how NOAA/SWPC/Dr David Hathaway's predictions have changed over time, re cycle 24. They have obviously been seeing the error of their ways over the years! I note that the chart was done in January this year and that the predictions have since changed again. From the original predictions to the most recent is some change, from raging activity to a possible Dalton-type minimum! It doesn't fill me with confidence as to their sunspot predicting ability, it must be said, although credit (I suppose :wallbash: ) to Dr. Hathaway for having acknowledged that it isn't turning out as they had previously thought it would. Perhaps it might make him a bit more cautious and less ramptastic in future!

    Interesting and exciting times. :good:

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    Posted
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Hot sunny , cold and snowy, thunderstorms
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset

    Solar24 have not yet updated the spotless days count from 32 yesterday. Either think think they may have spotted a spot or just late in updating.

    To my un-trained eyes, I can't see any spots, so I make it 33 spotless daysPosted Image

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    Posted
  • Location: New York City
  • Location: New York City

    I agree, Hiya. Here http://solarcycle24com.proboards.com/index.cgi?board=archive&action=display&thread=362 is something which has been put together rather well and shows how NOAA/SWPC/Dr David Hathaway's predictions have changed over time, re cycle 24. They have obviously been seeing the error of their ways over the years! I note that the chart was done in January this year and that the predictions have since changed again. From the original predictions to the most recent is some change, from raging activity to a possible Dalton-type minimum! It doesn't fill me with confidence as to their sunspot predicting ability, it must be said, although credit (I suppose :D ) to Dr. Hathaway for having acknowledged that it isn't turning out as they had previously thought it would. Perhaps it might make him a bit more cautious and less ramptastic in future!

    Interesting and exciting times. :D

    That is a good link. All the flip-flopping really won't help his credibility any with non scientists.

    I like that forum. Have you seen this? http://solarcycle24com.proboards.com/index.cgi?board=general&action=display&thread=769

    Almost publication quality layout and thinking.

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    Posted
  • Location: Coalpit Heath, South Gloucestershire
  • Location: Coalpit Heath, South Gloucestershire

    Steve, I'm pretty sure that it's an American site, so they will still be tucked up in bed! It'll be updated later, no doubt.

    NB. Please don't go encouraging spots to appear, with posts like that! :D

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    Posted
  • Location: Coalpit Heath, South Gloucestershire
  • Location: Coalpit Heath, South Gloucestershire

    That is a good link. All the flip-flopping really won't help his credibility any with non scientists.

    I like that forum. Have you seen this? http://solarcycle24com.proboards.com/index.cgi?board=general&action=display&thread=769

    Almost publication quality layout and thinking.

    Crikey. That is impressive stuff. He mentions Archibald and I came across some of Archibald's stuff last night. I found it very interesting. He will no doubt be decried by some as he is associated with Dr. David Bellamy. I'll see if I can dig up some stuff.....Archibald called this minimum some years ago.

    On a purely practical note, I was interested to read that Archibald (will check to see his title) suggests that the effect of he minimum will be to (effectively) have the climate "move" 300 km/186miles towards the equator. Well, obviously he explains it better than me :D , but I have been imagining myself in Winters such as are had in the north of England! Pleasant thoughts indeed, and slightly cooler Summers too, which would suit me nicely!

    I'll go and see what I can dig up.

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    Posted
  • Location: portsmouth uk
  • Weather Preferences: extremes
  • Location: portsmouth uk

    I agree, Hiya. Here http://solarcycle24c...play&thread=362 is something which has been put together rather well and shows how NOAA/SWPC/Dr David Hathaway's predictions have changed over time, re cycle 24. They have obviously been seeing the error of their ways over the years! I note that the chart was done in January this year and that the predictions have since changed again. From the original predictions to the most recent is some change, from raging activity to a possible Dalton-type minimum! It doesn't fill me with confidence as to their sunspot predicting ability, it must be said, although credit (I suppose :D ) to Dr. Hathaway for having acknowledged that it isn't turning out as they had previously thought it would. Perhaps it might make him a bit more cautious and less ramptastic in future!

    Interesting and exciting times. :D

    love this word ramptastic:yahoo:

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    Posted
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Hot sunny , cold and snowy, thunderstorms
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset

    I am loving this thread,

    Surely we are on the cusp of a period that the modern world has not yet seen regarding solar minimum.

    It will certainly be interesting to see which way this goes over the coming Months/years.

    Edited by SteveB
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    Posted
  • Location: Coalpit Heath, South Gloucestershire
  • Location: Coalpit Heath, South Gloucestershire

    Here is the link to David Archibald's site. http://www.davidarchibald.info/

    The article "Solar Cycles 24 and 25 Predicted Climate Response" is very interesting and was written in March 2006, which is three and a half years ago.

    Lots of reading to do!

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    Posted
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Hot sunny , cold and snowy, thunderstorms
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset

    Here is the link to David Archibald's site. http://www.davidarchibald.info/

    The article "Solar Cycles 24 and 25 Predicted Climate Response" is very interesting and was written in March 2006, which is three and a half years ago.

    Lots of reading to do!

    Cheers Noggin, shall have a read of that some time soon.

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    Posted
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Hot sunny , cold and snowy, thunderstorms
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset

    We have indeed moved on to 33 spotless days

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Location: Manchester

    We have indeed moved on to 33 spotless days

    Brilliant! Hopefully by Saturday we will have moved to the 14th place in the rank with the longest spotless spells! (see message from Stu London in the last page).

    By the way Stu London (or whoever has it) can you please post the link?

    Thank you

    Karyo

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    Posted
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Hot sunny , cold and snowy, thunderstorms
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset

    Brilliant! Hopefully by Saturday we will have moved to the 14th place in the rank with the longest spotless spells! (see message from Stu London in the last page).

    By the way Stu London (or whoever has it) can you please post the link?

    Thank you

    Karyo

    Yeah that would be good to have a link to that list.

    This is truly fasinating stuff.

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