Solar and Aurora Activity Chat

[Typhoon John]

22 years: Hale cycle, named after George Ellery Hale. The magnetic field of the Sun reverses during each Schwabe cycle, so the magnetic poles return to the same state after two reversals.

To add to that we saw the affects of the Hale cycle last winter with a cooler winter compared to the recent norm. I am also wondering whether the protracted minimum we are in means that it will be in fact the coming winter when the Hale affects are really felt, especially considering the winter just gone was still on the mild side. But as yet I've made no firm conclusions on that either way. Edited July 29, 2009 by fozi999

[noggin]

Landscheidts theory

http://www.schulphysik.de/klima/landscheidt/iceage.htm

BFTP

Link doesn't work, I'm afraid! Never mind, I'll google around and see what I can find.

Edited July 30, 2009 by pottyprof
link works now :)

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

To add to that we saw the affects of the Hale cycle last winter with a cooler winter compared to the recent norm. I am also wondering whether the protracted minimum we are in means that it will be in fact the coming winter when the Hale affects are really felt, especially considering the winter just gone was still on the mild side. But as yet I've made no firm conclusions on that either way.

No I believe that the Hale winterts are on the nose shall we say however, following winter tend to be cold overall after a HALE winter too. The winter gone wasn't on the mild side but lets say not as cold as previous 'cold' winters but certainly not mild side. Last winter was all about the southward shift of the jet which we are still seeing. The solar minimum [this is just the start of the 'true minima] along with the lunar phase we are entering is forcing the jet on a more southerly track and in my line of thinking is a long term trend. This will make winter wetter and increase chances of cold.

BFTP

[gigabite]

1. Solar Cycle vs Jupiter's Perihelion

2.

Two Sun things that effect winters on Earth other than the Sun angle are Sun size and Sun distance. Jupiter plays a role in both. Normally the Solar cycle starts just before Jupiter's closest approach, Jupiter's closest approach to the Sun is Earth's closest approach to Jupiter.

Edited August 1, 2009 by gigabite

[noggin]

i'm a bit slow on the uptake sometimes, but are these folks saying that what we thought were old cycle 23 spots are actually the first cycle 25 spots?

http://xrt.cfa.harvard.edu/resources/pubs/savc0707.pdf

[MR EXTREMES]

i'm a bit slow on the uptake sometimes, but are these folks saying that what we thought were old cycle 23 spots are actually the first cycle 25 spots?

http://xrt.cfa.harva...bs/savc0707.pdf

how about this then.

http://wattsupwiththat.com/2009/08/01/some-speculation-that-solar-cycle-25-has-already-begun/

intresting very intresting so solar cycles what you think now just a theory but it would seem possible indeed.

[Typhoon John]

I don't think it's suggesting that they weren't SC23 spots. What the paper discusses is the possibility that cycles may in fact be 22 years long. This is based on data from the sun's poles which we have never been able to record before. It suggests the solar cycle starts there before emerging at lower latitudes with spots. So rather than some big revelation of a failed SC24 and a move straight to SC25 the paper is simply offering the possibility that all cycles are actually 22 years.

The WUWT headline doesn't really tell the full story and some of the coolists on there see the headline and predict impending doom.

[MR EXTREMES]

fozi i dont think im talking about impending doom at all.

its ment to be so simple if in the maunder and dalton the earth cooled,

then if this a true minimum that could last for sometime then surely it will cool again,

im not talking iceage at all.

anyway i read this and will be watchin with intrest :

But endless? No. Solar jet streams are beginning to stimulate new-cycle sunspot production--e.g., sunspot 1024 in early July. NOAA forecasters expect solar activity to intensify in late 2009-early 2010 leading to a new solar maximum in 2012-2013. If they're correct, soon, the lonely prominence will be a thing of the past.

i wonder if there be right lets face it they been wrong for a few years now.

infact i go as far as to say there solar forecast have been like the met o long range in the last few years really poor pure guess work to be honest.

then add the new theories of 22 year cycles funny how unexpected minimum comes along and this pops up lets face it one word infancy its all to soon and years more to lern and get it right.

[Typhoon John]

fozi i dont think im talking about impending doom at all.

its ment to be so simple if in the maunder and dalton the earth cooled,

then if this a true minimum that could last for sometime then surely it will cool again,

im not talking iceage at all.

anyway i read this and will be watchin with intrest :

But endless? No. Solar jet streams are beginning to stimulate new-cycle sunspot production--e.g., sunspot 1024 in early July. NOAA forecasters expect solar activity to intensify in late 2009-early 2010 leading to a new solar maximum in 2012-2013. If they're correct, soon, the lonely prominence will be a thing of the past.

i wonder if there be right lets face it they been wrong for a few years now.

infact i go as far as to say there solar forecast have been like the met o long range in the last few years really poor pure guess work to be honest.

then add the new theories of 22 year cycles funny how unexpected minimum comes along and this pops up lets face it one word infancy its all to soon and years more to lern and get it right.

Errr... I think you need to read what I posted again. Never said you were talking about impending doom.

If you read any of my previous posts I think it's clear I expect the World to cool based upon an extended solar minimum, -PDO and -AMO to follow in the coming years.

I just wanted to clarify what the paper is about.

Edited August 3, 2009 by fozi999

[OldGreggsTundraBoy]

It really has been pretty abysmal waiting for this solar cycle to ramp up for years, just as i was getting interested in auroras and CME's.

Things that just aren't going to happen now..after early predictions of above average cycle.

If we go into a Dalton or maunder will i ever get to see these things i have never witnessed? Although the obvious answer is no the 1850's Carrington event happened in a lowly cycle.

Errr... I think you need to read what I posted again. Never said you were talking about impending doom.

If you read any of my previous posts I think it's clear I expect the World to cool based upon an extended solar minimum, -PDO and -AMO to follow in the coming years.

I just wanted to clarify what the paper is about.

Won't solar minimum and global warming just cancel each other out and things will just continue as 'normal'?

Most estimates seem to show there about equal factors against each other right? both progressively getting bigger.

[Typhoon John]

It really has been pretty abysmal waiting for this solar cycle to ramp up for years, just as i was getting interested in auroras and CME's.

Things that just aren't going to happen now..after early predictions of above average cycle.

If we go into a Dalton or maunder will i ever get to see these things i have never witnessed? Although the obvious answer is no the 1850's Carrington event happened in a lowly cycle.

Won't solar minimum and global warming just cancel each other out and things will just continue as 'normal'?

Most estimates seem to show there about equal factors against each other right? both progressively getting bigger.

I think the chances of the effects being completely equal and opposite are slim. My own belief is that Anthropogenic Global Warming is massively overstated (but does probably exist) and that solar minimum will have a greater cooling effect. As a result I think we'll move away from the anomalous warmth we've experienced for the last two decades but it won't be massively different to what we've experienced during the cooler periods of the last century. That's based on my expectation of a couple of low cycles, if a Maunder Minimum was to emerge then I'd say all bets were off.

[MR EXTREMES]

Errr... I think you need to read what I posted again. Never said you were talking about impending doom.

If you read any of my previous posts I think it's clear I expect the World to cool based upon an extended solar minimum, -PDO and -AMO to follow in the coming years.

I just wanted to clarify what the paper is about.

sorry fozi teach me for not thinking and reading correctly

[MR EXTREMES]

intresting to here of a new maximum on sky news although normally i do take media stuff with a pinch of salt but they got there information from nasa but ive read some intresting stuff lately this is one.

http://www.newscientist.com/article/mg20327194.400-centuriesold-sketches-solve-sunspot-mystery.html

[MR EXTREMES]

can anyone tell me if theres any sunspots because most sites are showing nothing because of data being delt with?

if there has been none then its about a month with none many thanks.

[Iceberg]

can anyone tell me if theres any sunspots because most sites are showing nothing because of data being delt with?

if there has been none then its about a month with none many thanks.

I am not sure what's happening today, but the last month has had more sunspots than any month this year.

Not saying much I know but there have been some.

ftp://omaftp.oma.be/dist/astro/sidcdata/monthssn.dat

[Mondy]

The sun remains blank of sunspots for the 26th day and solar activity will remain at very low levels

[Iceberg]

This is a useful site for the international sunspot number, they give out a report for the previous month (July).

http://www.sidc.be/products/ri/

[MR EXTREMES]

This is a useful site for the international sunspot number, they give out a report for the previous month (July).

http://www.sidc.be/products/ri/

thanks ib

it seems that data is being uploaded to the sat so space weather are saying.

so nearly a month not activity truely is a minimum atm

[MR EXTREMES]

i also been reading this very intresting im sure most have read this i just been reading around about solar el ninos la ninas and cooler and warmer climate perhapes thinking of connections between them all.

anyway heres the link just incase nobody has read it very intresting aswell.

http://www.john-daly.com/solar.htm

Edited August 5, 2009 by badboy657

[noggin]

http://www.solarcycle24.com/index2.htm

28 days with no spots, as of yesterday. Does anyone know, off the top of their head, what is the maximum number of days without a spot, in this current minimum?

[Typhoon John]

http://www.solarcycle24.com/index2.htm

28 days with no spots, as of yesterday. Does anyone know, off the top of their head, what is the maximum number of days without a spot, in this current minimum?

31 days - 21 July 2008 - 20 August 2008

28 days puts this streak joint second longest of the minimum.

Longest spotless days streak ever recorded is 92 days from 08 April 1913 - 08 July 1913.

Source - the September update will be interesting.

Edited August 8, 2009 by fozi999

[noggin]

Source - the September update will be interesting.

Thanks for that, fozi. Great link, too!

[noggin]

We could be on for a spotless record for this minimum within the next day or two! Fingers crossed.

Some interesting stats....

1)so far this year, we've had 171 spotless days (78% of total)

2)a "typical" solar minimum has 485 spotless days

3)since 2004 we have had 682 spotless days

Stats courtesy of WUWT and Spaceweather.com http://wattsupwiththat.com/2009/08/09/sunspotless-30-day-stretch-possible-in-the-next-day/#more-9817

Exciting stuff, innit!

[Typhoon John]

We could be on for a spotless record for this minimum within the next day or two! Fingers crossed.

Some interesting stats....

1)so far this year, we've had 171 spotless days (78% of total)

2)a "typical" solar minimum has 485 spotless days

3)since 2004 we have had 682 spotless days

Stats courtesy of WUWT and Spaceweather.com http://wattsupwiththat.com/2009/08/09/sunspotless-30-day-stretch-possible-in-the-next-day/#more-9817

Exciting stuff, innit!

I'd been meaning to check where we are for the year. Looking at that we are racking up spotless days faster than we did in 2008 which was 73% spotless.

Not wanting to jinx it but I think we should break the 31 days record for this minimum and hopefully by some margin. The sun looks totally quiet with no indication of activity in front of behind. I'd like to see August turn out spotless, that would make a 51 spotless days streak. Now seeing as I've made a prediction watch there be one by tomorrow so we don't even get to 31!

[karyo]

We could be on for a spotless record for this minimum within the next day or two! Fingers crossed. http://nwstatic.co.uk/forum/public/style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/smile.gif

Some interesting stats....

1)so far this year, we've had 171 spotless days (78% of total)

2)a "typical" solar minimum has 485 spotless days

3)since 2004 we have had 682 spotless days

Stats courtesy of WUWT and Spaceweather.com http://wattsupwiththat.com/2009/08/09/sunspotless-30-day-stretch-possible-in-the-next-day/#more-9817

Exciting stuff, innit!

It's truly exciting we entered this lengthy quiet period! This is especially so after there were signs of increased activity back in spring and early summer!

This discussion forum will be very busy in the next few days!

Karyo