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Posted
  • Location: Larbert
  • Location: Larbert

    Posted Image

    Two spots overall, both SC24 sig:

    From SC24.com:

    A larger and new Cycle 24 sunspot has appeared behind Sunspot 1022 and appears to be growing. It looks like this new spot is capable of producing B-Class flares. This new region will most likely be numbered Sunspot 1023 later today.

    If Sunspot 1022 lasts long enough today to fetch a number, it would be the first time in the new Cycle 24 that two regions were numbered at the same time. A CME took place off the Eastern Limb of the sun yesterday and a new region high in latitude is visible in the new STEREO Behind images. Could this be the cause ?

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    Just a few pics from early this morning at West Sands, St. Andrews  First one was 100iso eq @ f1.8 and 10 sec exposure, strong moonlight about midnight with the faintest of hint of an aurora.

    From Salon on the Isle Of Rum & The Isle Of Lewis tonight. Credit; Martin Keivers and Emma Mitchell.  

    More shots here from Scotland last night. Fingers crossed again tonight as there is another predicted Kp7 ☺

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    Posted
  • Location: Tornado Alley, west London
  • Location: Tornado Alley, west London

    Blimey, they're beginning to get like London buses.

    Both are developing rapidly, although who knows whether this means whether they'll do something substantial or go "boof" like a damp squib.

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    • 2 weeks later...
    Posted
  • Location: just behind Epsom Racecourse and the center of York
  • Location: just behind Epsom Racecourse and the center of York

    Blimey, they're beginning to get like London buses.

    Both are developing rapidly, although who knows whether this means whether they'll do something substantial or go "boof" like a damp squib.

    But like buses once they pass you don't see anything for ages. No spots for six days now although one appeared yesterday but disappeared before they could number it.

    So 140 spotless days in 2009 or 77% and a lot of those that did appear have been very short lived.

    The sun continues to be quiet

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    Posted
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex

    Sunspot 1024 has formed rapidly and producing B-class flares.

    Posted Image

    Aye those some nice B class flares over the last 12 hours or so, hope the new region grows to produce the first real C classes of SC 24 but we shall see.. http://nwstatic.co.uk/forum/public/style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/laugh.gif

    oh it would also be good if we could get more than 24 spot count some time showing were coming out of this painfully long minimum.

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    Posted
  • Location: portsmouth uk
  • Weather Preferences: extremes
  • Location: portsmouth uk

    Aye those some nice B class flares over the last 12 hours or so, hope the new region grows to produce the first real C classes of SC 24 but we shall see.. http://nwstatic.co.uk/forum/public/style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/laugh.gif

    oh it would also be good if we could get more than 24 spot count some time showing were coming out of this painfully long minimum.

    i would,nt hold your breath still very low looking likely to continue aswell the longer this continues the better,

    good for research and better for nasa so they can get there predictions right in the future we have experienced some extreme max solar activity in the past now its time for the minimums although activity will increase which is normal but not likely to see the maximums of the 90s and early 2000s.

    http://nwstatic.co.uk/forum/public/style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/cool.gif http://nwstatic.co.uk/forum/public/style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/ohmy.gif http://nwstatic.co.uk/forum/public/style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/laugh.gif http://nwstatic.co.uk/forum/public/style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/doh.gif

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    Posted
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex

    i would,nt hold your breath still very low looking likely to continue aswell the longer this continues the better,

    good for research and better for nasa so they can get there predictions right in the future we have experienced some extreme max solar activity in the past now its time for the minimums although activity will increase which is normal but not likely to see the maximums of the 90s and early 2000s.

    http://nwstatic.co.uk/forum/public/style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/cool.gif http://nwstatic.co.uk/forum/public/style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/ohmy.gif http://nwstatic.co.uk/forum/public/style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/doh.gif http://nwstatic.co.uk/forum/public/style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/cool.gif

    Thankyou! Yes i suppose you're right, now is the time for minimums, if only i had been alive & aware to fully appreciate the solar max's of modern history http://nwstatic.co.uk/forum/public/style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/laugh.gif

    Weren't so great at monitoring it and making the general public aware of it then though, and i think many people have come in hoping to see the big solar max's repeat themselves as scientists a few years ago thought they would. http://nwstatic.co.uk/forum/public/style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/ohmy.gif http://nwstatic.co.uk/forum/public/style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/laugh.gif

    \The sun clearly doesn't care for our plans for it's activity!

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    Posted
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex

    yehr i saw that! (well i didn't literally see a flare whilst staring at the sun) The biggest flare of the solar cycle so far! http://nwstatic.co.uk/forum/public/style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/laugh.gif

    Activity has generaly been going steadily back down today since that unfortunately. http://nwstatic.co.uk/forum/public/style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/dry.gif

    Hope there is more like this to come in the nearish future. :rolleyes:

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    Posted
  • Location: Tornado Alley, west London
  • Location: Tornado Alley, west London

    What seems odd, if you look at the magnetogram on the Soho site is that after its slowdown in activity, now the group of spots is getting more active again, it appears to be reversing its polarity.

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    • 3 weeks later...
    Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Location: Manchester

    well well intresting very intresting after a flurry of activity the sun suddenly went calm again then today this pops up

    http://spaceweather.com/

    old cycle 23 :clap:

    Yes, I was also surprised to see a cycle 23 sunspot! I thought we were done with the old cycle by now. Obviously not!

    Karyo

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    Posted
  • Location: portsmouth uk
  • Weather Preferences: extremes
  • Location: portsmouth uk

    Yes, I was also surprised to see a cycle 23 sunspot! I thought we were done with the old cycle by now. Obviously not!

    Karyo

    it would seem to be stuck inbetween cycles,

    i noticed a little while back that sunspots where popping up every 5 to 7 days but its now been 13 days since the last activity which is not far of two weeks without a single spot.

    but then apears a spot from cycle 23,

    i would of thought all the time this happens it puts back the cycle 24 activity so its possible this cycle minimum could go on longer and weaker if cycle 24 stays this weak imagine what cycle 25 will be like.

    its certain its intresting also certain things are all up in the air right now,

    well predictions are certainly being trown about about and maybe a coincedence,

    but the weather and climate forecasting is also been a bit sketchy for awhile.

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    Posted
  • Location: Coalpit Heath, South Gloucestershire
  • Location: Coalpit Heath, South Gloucestershire

    http://www.solarcycle24.com/index2.htm

    16 days now, without a Cycle 24 spot.

    The comparison graph on the website, comparing the last minimum with this minimum, is very interesting and you can see at a glance how much lower this one is.

    PS Here we are.....middle graph on the right hand side......

    http://www.solarcycle24.com/sunspots.htm

    Edited by noggin
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    Posted
  • Location: Bethnal Green
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and Cold
  • Location: Bethnal Green

    And the (adjusted) solar flux rose since January it's started to decline again. However I don't expect the SSN to do the same and I expect we have seen the real start of the new cycle, even though it may be stuttering.

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    Posted
  • Location: Irlam
  • Location: Irlam

    David Hathaway has not come out of this very well.

    Firstly he predicts the next solar cycle would be a strong one

    NASA March 2006

    "This week researchers announced that a storm is coming--the most intense solar maximum in fifty years. The prediction comes from a team led by Mausumi Dikpati of the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR). "The next sunspot cycle will be 30% to 50% stronger than the previous one," she says. If correct, the years ahead could produce a burst of solar activity second only to the historic Solar Max of 1958."

    "Like most experts in the field, Hathaway has confidence in the conveyor belt model and agrees with Dikpati that the next solar maximum should be a doozy. But he disagrees with one point. Dikpati's forecast puts Solar Max at 2012. Hathaway believes it will arrive sooner, in 2010 or 2011."

    "he says. "I expect to see the first sunspots of the next cycle appear in late 2006 or 2007—and Solar Max to be underway by 2010 or 2011.""

    NASA March 2006

    That forecast is what provoked Dr. Hathaway at NASA's Marshall Space Flight Center to bet Dr. Gilman that solar cycle 24 was going to come on quickly in 2006 because it was going to be so strong - perhaps the strongest solar cycle on record.

    NASA Dec 21, 2006

    "Dec. 21, 2006: Evidence is mounting: the next solar cycle is going to be a big one."

    "Solar cycle 24, due to peak in 2010 or 2011 "looks like its going to be one of the most intense cycles since record-keeping began almost 400 years ago," says solar physicist David Hathaway of the Marshall Space Flight Center. He and colleague Robert Wilson presented this conclusion last week at the American Geophysical Union meeting in San Francisco

    According to their analysis, the next Solar Maximum should peak around 2010 with a sunspot number of 160 plus or minus 25. This would make it one of the strongest solar cycles of the past fifty years—which is to say, one of the strongest in recorded history."

    Dec 14, 2007 NASA

    It may not look like much, but "this patch of magnetism could be a sign of the next solar cycle," says solar physicist David Hathaway of the Marshall Space Flight Center. For more than a year, the sun has been experiencing a lull in activity, marking the end of Solar Cycle 23, which peaked with many furious storms in 2000--2003. "Solar minimum is upon us," he says.

    NOAA April 25, 2007

    "The next 11-year cycle of solar storms will most likely start next March [2008] and peak in late 2011 or mid-2012 – up to a year later than expected – according to a forecast issued today by NOAA’s Space Environment Center in coordination with an international panel of solar experts"

    NASA July 11, 2008

    "The sun is behaving normally. So says NASA solar physicist David Hathaway."

    "There have been some reports lately that Solar Minimum is lasting longer than it should. That's not true. The ongoing lull in sunspot number is well within historic norms for the solar cycle."

    "some observers are questioning the length of the ongoing minimum, now slogging through its 3rd year."

    "It does seem like it's taking a long time," allows Hathaway, "but I think we're just forgetting how long a solar minimum can last."

    November 7, 2008, NASA

    "After two-plus years of few sunspots, even fewer solar flares, and a generally eerie calm, the sun is finally showing signs of life. "I think solar minimum is behind us," says sunspot forecaster David Hathaway of the NASA Marshall Space Flight Center."

    "From January to September, the sun produced a total of 22 sunspot groups; 82% of them belonged to old Cycle 23. October added five more; but this time 80% belonged to Cycle 24. The tables have turned. Even with its flurry of sunspots,the October sun was mostly blank, with zero sunspots on 20 of the month's 31 days.

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    Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

    Shows really he hasn't got a clue and his theory is flawed. Back to the drawing board and start again.

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    Posted
  • Location: Coalpit Heath, South Gloucestershire
  • Location: Coalpit Heath, South Gloucestershire

    http://www.nytimes.com/2009/07/21/science/space/21sunspot.html?_r=2

    David Hathaway says that a Dalton minimum "is within the realms of possibility".

    http://nwstatic.co.uk/forum/public/style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/laugh.gif

    Let's be 'aving it then. :girl_devil:

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    Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey

    http://www.nytimes.com/2009/07/21/science/space/21sunspot.html?_r=2

    David Hathaway says that a Dalton minimum "is within the realms of possibility".

    http://nwstatic.co.uk/forum/public/style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/laugh.gif

    Let's be 'aving it then. :girl_devil:

    That will change over coming years that Dalton minimum 'at least' is very likely. Theodore Landscheidt amongst others have targetted cycle 25 as being first deep minima called the Gleissberg minima. I have been advocating this for couple of years after reading his and others research. This cycle will be be noted for its fits and starts before we plunge into a deep minima. Actually this cycle is quieter than expected...which concerns me.

    BFTP

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    Posted
  • Location: Coalpit Heath, South Gloucestershire
  • Location: Coalpit Heath, South Gloucestershire

    That will change over coming years that Dalton minimum 'at least' is very likely. Theodore Landscheidt amongst others have targetted cycle 25 as being first deep minima called the Gleissberg minima. I have been advocating this for couple of years after reading his and others research. This cycle will be be noted for its fits and starts before we plunge into a deep minima. Actually this cycle is quieter than expected...which concerns me.

    BFTP

    I don't want to take up too much of your time, Blast, but could you fill us in about Gleissberg, cycle 25 and Mr Landscheidt's work?

    Also, you have expressed some concern.......is this that cycle 24 is quiet and that, therefore, the deep minimum has started earlier than expected?

    :girl_devil:

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    Posted
  • Location: portsmouth uk
  • Weather Preferences: extremes
  • Location: portsmouth uk

    http://www.nytimes.c...nspot.html?_r=2

    David Hathaway says that a Dalton minimum "is within the realms of possibility".

    :D

    Let's be 'aving it then. http://nwstatic.co.uk/forum/public/style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/ohmy.gif

    i know this is fantastic stuff lol.

    i get so excited do ya wanna know why because this raises the bar on the gw front im certain it will and is already having a effect on our climate.

    and ive noticed just recently a cycle23 spot appeared then disspeared as quick as that but what is intresting the blank sun length has increased again could this continue for another long period perhapes not but by far not frequent enough to get on the maximum wagon.

    and how about this then why is a maunder minimum not possible either. http://nwstatic.co.uk/forum/public/style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/rolleyes.gif

    That will change over coming years that Dalton minimum 'at least' is very likely. Theodore Landscheidt amongst others have targetted cycle 25 as being first deep minima called the Gleissberg minima. I have been advocating this for couple of years after reading his and others research. This cycle will be be noted for its fits and starts before we plunge into a deep minima. Actually this cycle is quieter than expected...which concerns me.

    BFTP

    indeed its a possability but we can only wait and see but i agree with you fully been watching the sun since the early 2000s and im telling you this was pretty sudden and not your normal type of maximum to minimum transition.

    and the last few years have been amazing no 100c temps in the uk for sometime now i wonder why http://nwstatic.co.uk/forum/public/style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/laugh.gif

    add the cold records ok maybe over the top but hey lets wait and see i got my thoughts but dont like to talk to much about them because i dont wanna start a solar war lol.

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    Posted
  • Location: Swallownest, Sheffield 83m ASL
  • Location: Swallownest, Sheffield 83m ASL

    The sun has a constant output.. It must be right because the IPCC say so..

    What minimum? Nothing to see here.. Move along please.. http://nwstatic.co.uk/forum/public/style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/ohmy.gif

    It's certainly an interesting situation. A little more of WUWT..

    http://wattsupwiththat.com/2009/07/28/nasa-now-saying-that-a-dalton-minimum-repeat-is-possible/

    This is an interesting statement..

    What I am now examining is the possibility that there will not be a solar magnetic reversal at the Solar Cycle 24 maximum.

    Anyone got any more details??

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    Posted
  • Location: portsmouth uk
  • Weather Preferences: extremes
  • Location: portsmouth uk

    http://climaterealists.com/index.php?id=3693

    this seems to suggest its below dalton level intresting.

    oh yeah pp thanks i now know why a maunder minimum is not likely http://nwstatic.co.uk/forum/public/style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/ohmy.gif

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    Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey

    I don't want to take up too much of your time, Blast, but could you fill us in about Gleissberg, cycle 25 and Mr Landscheidt's work?

    Also, you have expressed some concern.......is this that cycle 24 is quiet and that, therefore, the deep minimum has started earlier than expected?

    http://nwstatic.co.uk/forum/public/style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/blush.gif

    Hi Noggin

    Basic run down of solar cycles. They are called so because they are named after people who founded them.

    11 years : Schwabe cycle named after Henrich Schwabe.

    22 years: Hale cycle, named after George Ellery Hale. The magnetic field of the Sun reverses during each Schwabe cycle, so the magnetic poles return to the same state after two reversals.

    87 years (70–100 years): Gleissberg cycle, named after Wolfgang Gleißberg, is thought to be an amplitude modulation of the 11-year Schwabe Cycle (Sonnett and Finney, 1990). Braun, et al., (2005)

    210 years: Suess cycle (a.k.a. de Vries cycle). Braun, et al., (2005).

    2,300 years: Hallstatt cycle

    This next minimum is forecast by Theodore Landscheidt to appraoch Maunder proportions. the fact that 24 is much quieter than most anticipated leads me to believe that we are indeed going deeper than a Dalton and headed towards Landscheidts thoughts.

    Landscheidts theory

    http://www.schulphysik.de/klima/landscheidt/iceage.htm

    BFTP

    Edited by pottyprof
    made the link work.. :)
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    Posted
  • Location: Coalpit Heath, South Gloucestershire
  • Location: Coalpit Heath, South Gloucestershire

    Landscheidts theory

    BFTP

    Thanks, Blast. I look forward to reading that later this evening. :help:

    this seems to suggest its below dalton level intresting.

    Another read to look forward to this evening. Thanks, badboy!

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