Solar and Aurora Activity Chat

[jonboy]

10 hours ago, JeffC said:

I think that although not so many spotless days, the sun isn't all that active. Solar flux has only spent a few days >100...

There has been a lot of days where the count was 11 or 12 which is the lowest we go. it could easily have been 60 or 70 spotless days

[JeffC]

12 hours ago, jonboy said:

There has been a lot of days where the count was 11 or 12 which is the lowest we go. it could easily have been 60 or 70 spotless days

Indeed, so whilst it is active insofar as it's not spotless, it isn't ramping up yet compared to previous cycles.

[JeffC]

Observed Flux Density 75.9

Adjusted Flux Density  78.1 = low

[karyo]

This cycle is already more active than the forecasts!

Look at today's article on spaceweather

Quote

@jonboy @JeffC

 

[Don]

6 hours ago, karyo said:

This cycle is already more active than the forecasts!

Look at today's article on spaceweather

 

I thought it was behaving similar to SC24 so far?

[karyo]

5 minutes ago, Don said:

I thought it was behaving similar to SC24 so far?

The article does not compare it to SC24, it focuses on the comparison with the forecasts. In fact, they are saying that this cycle may even reach its peak early because of the increased activity. All an all, it is not good news for quiet sun worshippers like us. 

[Don]

3 minutes ago, karyo said:

The article does not compare it to SC24, it focuses on the comparison with the forecasts. In fact, they are saying that this cycle may even reach its peak early because of the increased activity. All an all, it is not good news for quiet sun worshippers like us. 

Ok thanks, I will have a read later.  Like you say, not good news for those if us who want a quiet sun and we'll just have to hope it doesn't ramp up too much for the upcoming winter!  However, it still appears to be relatively quiet compared to many other solar cycles, even if it is more active than forecast, so perhaps all is not lost just yet?

[karyo]

3 minutes ago, Don said:

Ok thanks, I will have a read later.  Like you say, not good news for those if us who want a quiet sun and we'll just have to hope it doesn't ramp up too much for the upcoming winter!  However, it still appears to be relatively quiet compared to many other solar cycles, even if it is more active than forecast, so perhaps all is not lost just yet?

Let's hope so, and at least we had a few spotless days so far this month. We need those to come back.

[summer blizzard]

It's worth saying that the forecast for the cycle is not actually to be more active than forecast/SC24/5 (i forget which was the last one) but rather that it will simply peak earlier. 

This is not that abnormal given that the last solar cycle bottomed out in late 2008 and had a double peak in 2011 and 2014, the former being just three years after but the later being 6 years after. This cycle bottomed in 2019 so a 2024 peak would indicate a shorter cycle by a year but not a radical difference at five rather than six years.

[jonboy]

2 hours ago, karyo said:

Let's hope so, and at least we had a few spotless days so far this month. We need those to come back.

Actually I think this might be good news for the upcoming winter. I believe that the most brutal winters have come on the uptick of activity after minimum and I think even though activity isn't great it has ramped up against forecast which I assume is based on historic data which shows a slower increase in activity.

I am a believer that this increase in activity is one of the drivers for the extreme weather events we are seeing around the world be it snow in brazil, extreme rainfall events around the world, heat in Greece/Turkey and on the west coast of the states

[JeffC]

Observed Flux Density 70.8

Adjusted Flux Density  72.8 = low

[JeffC]

Observed Flux Density 72.9

Adjusted Flux Density  75.0 = low

[JeffC]

Observed Flux Density 74.4

Adjusted Flux Density  76.5 = low

[JeffC]

Observed Flux Density 73.7

Adjusted Flux Density  75.8 = low

[Katrine Basso]

Daily Sun: Sunday 08 Aug 2021

Sunspot number: 0

Spotless Days
Current Stretch: 2 days
2021 total: 53 days (24%)

Thermosphere Climate Index
today: 5.13x1010 W Cold Updated 07 Aug 2021

The Radio Sun
10.7 cm flux: 74 sfu Updated Sunday 08 Aug 2021

[JeffC]

Observed Flux Density 73.2

Adjusted Flux Density  75.3 = low

[JeffC]

Observed Flux Density 73.0

Adjusted Flux Density  75.0 = low

[JeffC]

Observed Flux Density 72.5

Adjusted Flux Density  74.5 = low

[Katrine Basso]

Daily Sun: Wednesday 11 Aug 2021

Sunspot number: 0

Spotless Days
Current Stretch: 2 days
2021 total: 55 days (24%)

Thermosphere Climate Index
today: 5.17x1010 W Cold Updated Tuesday 10th  August 2021

The Radio Sun
10.7 cm flux: 73 sfu Updated Wednesday  11th August 2021

[JeffC]

Observed Flux Density 73.8

Adjusted Flux Density  75.8 = low

[JeffC]

Observed Flux Density 73.6

Adjusted Flux Density  75.6 = low

[JeffC]

Observed Flux Density 72.9

Adjusted Flux Density  74.8 = low

[Katrine Basso]

Daily Sun: Saturday 14th Aug 2021

Sunspot number: 0

Spotless Days
Current Stretch: 1 days
2021 total: 6 days (25%)

Thermosphere Climate Index
today: 4.99x1010 W Cold Updated Saturday 14th  August 2021

The Radio Sun
10.7 cm flux: 73 sfu Updated Friday 13th August 2021

Oulu Neutron Counts
Percentages of the Space Age average:
today: +9.1% High
48-hr change: +0.2%

[JeffC]

Observed Flux Density 72.6

Adjusted Flux Density  74.5 = low

[JeffC]

Observed Flux Density 74.3

Adjusted Flux Density  76.2 = low