Solar and Aurora Activity Chat

[Crepuscular Ray]

I am pleased with the news: cycle 24 will be a moderately weak one!

Karyo

I can see your point, but I'd so love to see aurorae over Primrose Hill (I'm not going into the discussion about the extent to which solar activity affects temperatures on Earth as that's for another thread entirely). Although, given how long C24 has taken to get going, it is probable that it's going to be a washout/damp squib (unless anyone else has info about slow-starting cycles being stronger in the long run).

[Typhoon John]

A much more realistic prediction from the SWPC but it's still about 20 too high imo. I'd go for a SSN of 70 for the next max around the middle of 2014.

[karyo]

It seems the activity that was observed on the sun's surface a few days ago was not a sunspot!

From spaceweather.com: 'The farside sunspot that unleashed a powerful CME on May 5th is finally rotating into view. Except it is not a sunspot. The blast site appears to be in a state of decay with only some patches of bright magnetic froth marking where a sunspot group might have been.'

So the quietness continues...

Karyo

[The PIT]

Another words they haven't a clue what's happening. Lets see what happens

[Mondy]

It seems the activity that was observed on the sun's surface a few days ago was not a sunspot!

From spaceweather.com: 'The farside sunspot that unleashed a powerful CME on May 5th is finally rotating into view. Except it is not a sunspot. The blast site appears to be in a state of decay with only some patches of bright magnetic froth marking where a sunspot group might have been.'

So the quietness continues...

Karyo

The first region is now a plage area of SC24 activity. The second region (furthest left) is coming into view. This may well be a SC24 spot:

From Spaceweather also:

According to NASA's STEREO-B spacecraft, which is stationed over the sun's eastern limb, another active region should emerge today. Will it be a genuine sunspot--or another corpse? Stay tuned.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

As per other thread, my money was on return of quiet...it seems so. As re how many sunposts per month, anyones guess except more and more likelY to be on low side [huh, wait until SC25!!!]

Re slow start cycles speeding up and becoming strong, I don't think that will be the case or happens however, I haven't seen any study on that.

BFTP

[Typhoon John]

All that excitement and another plage! Livingston and Penn in affect?

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Today's image is a magnetic map of the sun. Two active regions are circled. Their polarity identifies them as members of new Solar Cycle 24, but they lack the dark cores required of true sunspots. So, in spite of these lively magnetic imprints, we must still say "the sun is blank--no sunspots."

And there we have it...............its very quiet up there and this is of concern.

BFTP

[Guest North Sea Snow Convection]

Today's image is a magnetic map of the sun. Two active regions are circled. Their polarity identifies them as members of new Solar Cycle 24, but they lack the dark cores required of true sunspots. So, in spite of these lively magnetic imprints, we must still say "the sun is blank--no sunspots."

And there we have it...............its very quiet up there and this is of concern.

BFTP

Oh, of course

[noggin]

Today's image is a magnetic map of the sun. Two active regions are circled. Their polarity identifies them as members of new Solar Cycle 24, but they lack the dark cores required of true sunspots. So, in spite of these lively magnetic imprints, we must still say "the sun is blank--no sunspots."

And there we have it...............its very quiet up there and this is of concern.

BFTP

(Whispers).......which image is that, Blast? Are you referring to an image on another site, or is it me being a bit thick? http://nwstatic.co.uk/forum/public/style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/cool.gif

'Tis quiet, though, innit? I think it's quite exciting! http://nwstatic.co.uk/forum/public/style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/laugh.gif

[Typhoon John]

This image:

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

This image:

Sorry that's the one....but if you got the attempt at humour!!!

BFTP

[noggin]

Sorry that's the one....but if you got the attempt at humour!!!

BFTP

Oh, dear....what a dozy old twit I am! http://nwstatic.co.uk/forum/public/style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/laugh.gif

[karyo]

A new sunspot appeared as part of cycle 24!

www.spaceweather.com

Karyo

Edited May 14, 2009 by karyo

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Spotless Days

Current Stretch: 0 days

2009 total: 115 days (86%)

Since 2004: 626 days

Typical Solar Min: 485 days

Details on current depth of minima. Pretty impressive and with a chance that 25 will be deeper. Although already mentioned I will post a graph that illustrates NOAA prediction.

BFTP

Edited May 17, 2009 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[Typhoon John]

Still well on course to beat last years spotless days total, at the current rate 2009 should exceed 300 spotless days. Although we should perhaps expect a reduction in the frequency of spotless days as the year progresses.

[Guest Shetland Coastie]

Still well on course to beat last years spotless days total, at the current rate 2009 should exceed 300 spotless days. Although we should perhaps expect a reduction in the frequency of spotless days as the year progresses.

Indeed fozi, interesting times ahead!

[Mondy]

SSN=11

SC24 finally kicking in. Months of blankness and now two recent regions producing sunspots, plus plage regions too - all associated with C24

[tundra]

The new spot in the southern hemisphere is no more than a speck just like the rest of the sc24 spots that have come and gone before hand.

Solar activity is still at very low levels with no real signs of this changing in the foreseeable.

[Crepuscular Ray]

SSN=11

SC24 finally kicking in. Months of blankness and now two recent regions producing sunspots, plus plage regions too - all associated with C24

I'm not sure about the regions just south of the equator: they look like SC23 as they've got the opposite polarity to the spot farther south.

[Typhoon John]

From the sunspots and plage you would hardly know it's started. The region near the equator is SC23 and the sunspot is tiny with poor contrast suggesting a weak cycle to come. The only real indicator of the upswing in SC24 is the 10.7cm Flux which is increasing nicely.

[MR EXTREMES]

what are the chances of solar activity increasing to say that of a normal cycle ?

and am i right in saying a maunder type minimum is now not likely at all in the next 5 to 10 years?

[Typhoon John]

My own opinion is that a normal cycle, as in average compared to recent cycles, is impossible now. I think a Dalton style minimum is likely but not a Maunder - Maunder is probably too extreme.

Edited May 24, 2009 by fozi999

[tundra]

Yesterdays southern hemisphere speck has already faded away leaving the sun once again blank.

[karyo]

Another active area has appeared on the sun's surface: www.spaceweather.com

It is not clear yet whether this is a sunspot but it can be said that recently the sun has not been as quiet as before...

Karyo