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  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Hot sunny , cold and snowy, thunderstorms
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset

    9 days blank,  26 for 2021, 59%

    Solar flux 72

    Thermosphere: 4.61

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    Just a few pics from early this morning at West Sands, St. Andrews  First one was 100iso eq @ f1.8 and 10 sec exposure, strong moonlight about midnight with the faintest of hint of an aurora.

    More shots here from Scotland last night. Fingers crossed again tonight as there is another predicted Kp7 ☺

    From Salon on the Isle Of Rum & The Isle Of Lewis tonight. Credit; Martin Keivers and Emma Mitchell.  

    Posted Images

    Posted
  • Location: Coniston, Cumbria 90m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: wintry
  • Location: Coniston, Cumbria 90m ASL

    Observed Flux Density 72.7

    Adjusted Flux Density 70.9 = low

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    Posted
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Hot sunny , cold and snowy, thunderstorms
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset

    10 days blank,  27 for 2021, 60%

    Solar flux 71

    Thermosphere: 4.62

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    Posted
  • Location: South Ockendon, Thurrock, SW Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Severe frosts, Heavy snowfall, Thunder and lightning, Stormy weather
  • Location: South Ockendon, Thurrock, SW Essex

    AURORAS FOR VALENTINE'S DAY? A stream of solar wind is buffeting Earth's magnetic field, and this is sparking bright auroras around the Arctic Circle. "The lights last night were fantastic," reports Markus Varik, who sends this picture from Tromsø, Norway:

    AURORAS FOR VALENTINE'S DAY.jpg

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    Posted
  • Location: Coniston, Cumbria 90m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: wintry
  • Location: Coniston, Cumbria 90m ASL

    Observed Flux Density 71.4

    Adjusted Flux Density 69.7 = very low

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    Posted
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Hot sunny , cold and snowy, thunderstorms
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset

    11 days blank, 28 for 2021, 61%

    Solar flux 71

    Thermosphere: 4.69

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    Posted
  • Location: Coniston, Cumbria 90m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: wintry
  • Location: Coniston, Cumbria 90m ASL

    Observed Flux Density 69.6

    Adjusted Flux Density 68.0 = very low

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    Posted
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Hot sunny , cold and snowy, thunderstorms
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset

    12 days blank, 29 for 2021, 625

    Solar flux 71

    Thermosphere: 4.68

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    Posted
  • Location: Coniston, Cumbria 90m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: wintry
  • Location: Coniston, Cumbria 90m ASL

    Observed Flux Density 71.3

    Adjusted Flux Density 69.6 = very low

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    Posted
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Hot sunny , cold and snowy, thunderstorms
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset

    13 days blank,  30 for 2021, 63%

    Solar flux 71

    Thermosphere: 4.66

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    Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

    At least we are still getting spotless days rather than seeing the kind of recovery we could have seen.

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    Posted
  • Location: Coniston, Cumbria 90m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: wintry
  • Location: Coniston, Cumbria 90m ASL

    Observed Flux Density 71.6

    Adjusted Flux Density 70.0 = low

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    Posted
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Hot sunny , cold and snowy, thunderstorms
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset

    14 days blank, 31 for 2021, 63%

    Solar Flux 72

    Thermosphere: 4.82 

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    Posted
  • Location: Coniston, Cumbria 90m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: wintry
  • Location: Coniston, Cumbria 90m ASL

    Observed Flux Density 74.9

    Adjusted Flux Density 73.2 = low

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    Posted
  • Location: Coniston, Cumbria 90m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: wintry
  • Location: Coniston, Cumbria 90m ASL

    Observed Flux Density 72.9

    Adjusted Flux Density 71.3 = low

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    Posted
  • Location: Coniston, Cumbria 90m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: wintry
  • Location: Coniston, Cumbria 90m ASL

    Observed Flux Density 74.5

    Adjusted Flux Density 72.9 = low

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    Posted
  • Location: Coniston, Cumbria 90m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: wintry
  • Location: Coniston, Cumbria 90m ASL

    Observed Flux Density 75.3

    Adjusted Flux Density 73.6 = low

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    Posted
  • Location: Shrewsbury,Shropshire
  • Location: Shrewsbury,Shropshire
    On 17/02/2021 at 16:01, summer blizzard said:

    At least we are still getting spotless days rather than seeing the kind of recovery we could have seen.

    I'm not so sure it matters any more? If you look back to the last run of spotless suns around 2010 the winters here did seem to follow the pattern of colder/snowy. This time we've had mild winters with little snow. If 2021/22 winter isn't cold & snowy I think I'll be forgetting spotless sun = decent winters down the line 😞 Has climate change broken the pattern? Did the pattern ever really exist?

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    Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
    37 minutes ago, drgl said:

    I'm not so sure it matters any more? If you look back to the last run of spotless suns around 2010 the winters here did seem to follow the pattern of colder/snowy. This time we've had mild winters with little snow. If 2021/22 winter isn't cold & snowy I think I'll be forgetting spotless sun = decent winters down the line 😞 Has climate change broken the pattern? Did the pattern ever really exist?

    While the winter of 2020 was a massive anomoly (the only top 10 winter to produce a warm Jan) there's actually some confusion over what a top 20 winter (2018, 2020) actually brings. Statistically it biases to average-cold in Dec and Jan but average-mild in Feb.

    Winter 2019 did actually fit the statistical bill in Jan-Feb and winter 2021 will have hit the mark in all 3 months to some degree.

    Remember that last cycle had two top 10 winters 09 and 10, winter 08 was av-warm-warm and was top 20 (Jan being an anomoly).

    Strictly speaking winters 09 and 10 behaved as they should have as did winter 08, 19 and 21 (mostly). Only winter 20 was an outright anomoly.

    Note that my analysis only includes top 20 and 10 spotless years, a lot of research suggests the ride up produces a delayed reaction so to speak.

    Also note that I used 3.6/3.4 and 5.6/5.4 as my boundaries. Most people would probably say 5-5-5 was mild whereas I'd count it average.

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    Posted
  • Location: Coniston, Cumbria 90m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: wintry
  • Location: Coniston, Cumbria 90m ASL

    Observed Flux Density 76.7

    Adjusted Flux Density 75.1 = low

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    Posted
  • Location: Coniston, Cumbria 90m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: wintry
  • Location: Coniston, Cumbria 90m ASL

    Observed Flux Density 78.1

    Adjusted Flux Density 76.5 = low

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    Posted
  • Location: Coniston, Cumbria 90m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: wintry
  • Location: Coniston, Cumbria 90m ASL

    Observed Flux Density 83.1

    Adjusted Flux Density 81.4 = low

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    Posted
  • Location: Coniston, Cumbria 90m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: wintry
  • Location: Coniston, Cumbria 90m ASL

    Observed Flux Density 80.1

    Adjusted Flux Density 78.5 = low

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    Posted
  • Location: Coniston, Cumbria 90m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: wintry
  • Location: Coniston, Cumbria 90m ASL

    Observed Flux Density 80.1

    Adjusted Flux Density 78.5 = low

    Same as yesterday...

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    Posted
  • Location: Coniston, Cumbria 90m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: wintry
  • Location: Coniston, Cumbria 90m ASL

    Observed Flux Density 79.2

    Adjusted Flux Density 77.7 = low

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