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Posted
  • Location: Coniston, Cumbria 90m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: wintry
  • Location: Coniston, Cumbria 90m ASL

    Observed Flux Density 83.1

    Adjusted Flux Density 80.6 = low

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    Just a few pics from early this morning at West Sands, St. Andrews  First one was 100iso eq @ f1.8 and 10 sec exposure, strong moonlight about midnight with the faintest of hint of an aurora.

    More shots here from Scotland last night. Fingers crossed again tonight as there is another predicted Kp7 ☺

    From Salon on the Isle Of Rum & The Isle Of Lewis tonight. Credit; Martin Keivers and Emma Mitchell.  

    Posted Images

    Posted
  • Location: sunny sunny Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: Bartlett style mild and benign
  • Location: sunny sunny Bournemouth

    Forecasts of possibly G3 storms with a K of up to 7 over the next couple of days. Keep those eyes peeled, especially up north.

    This is a result of the C7.4 flare on Monday which generated a full halo CME aimed at Earth.

    Solar activity taking a slight breather now as sfi declines, but a returning active region will rotate into view in 3-4 days.

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    Posted
  • Location: Coniston, Cumbria 90m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: wintry
  • Location: Coniston, Cumbria 90m ASL

    Observed Flux Density 82.1

    Adjusted Flux Density 79.6 = low

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    Posted
  • Location: Coniston, Cumbria 90m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: wintry
  • Location: Coniston, Cumbria 90m ASL

    Observed Flux Density 81.9

    Adjusted Flux Density 79.5 = low

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    Posted
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......
  • Weather Preferences: Hot & Sunny, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......

    Hmmmm......

    sunspot.jpg
    PHYS.ORG

    In direct contradiction to the official forecast, a team of scientists led by the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) is predicting that the Sunspot Cycle that started this fall could be one ...

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

    We might manage a few days soon, we have a dying sunspot and a weak one coming.

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    Posted
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......
  • Weather Preferences: Hot & Sunny, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......
    11 hours ago, Gray-Wolf said:

    Hmmmm......

    sunspot.jpg
    PHYS.ORG

    In direct contradiction to the official forecast, a team of scientists led by the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) is predicting that the Sunspot Cycle that started this fall could be one ...

     

    I'm surprised this hasn't drawn any comments?

    I've had 2 decades of promises that we are heading into a 'Maunder Like' minimum (and of the 'Global Cooling' such would bring us so we ought not worry/plan for AGW impacts?)

    If this team are even in the ballpark with their projection for a Sunspot max over 200 then surely, if a Maunder min brings cooling, then surely hyper active cycle adds into our warming woes whilst raising the spectre of satellite losses and burned out transformers across the CME facing side of the planet (should we see X class flares frequently striking Earth?)?

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    Posted
  • Location: Coniston, Cumbria 90m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: wintry
  • Location: Coniston, Cumbria 90m ASL

    Observed Flux Density 81.7

    Adjusted Flux Density 79.2 = low

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    Posted
  • Location: Coniston, Cumbria 90m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: wintry
  • Location: Coniston, Cumbria 90m ASL

    Observed Flux Density 82.4

    Adjusted Flux Density 79.9 = low

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    Posted
  • Location: Somerset midway between Bath&Wells. Mendips 200m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and lots of it or warm and sunny, no mediocre dross
  • Location: Somerset midway between Bath&Wells. Mendips 200m asl
    On 11/12/2020 at 08:01, Gray-Wolf said:

    I'm surprised this hasn't drawn any comments?

    I've had 2 decades of promises that we are heading into a 'Maunder Like' minimum (and of the 'Global Cooling' such would bring us so we ought not worry/plan for AGW impacts?)

    If this team are even in the ballpark with their projection for a Sunspot max over 200 then surely, if a Maunder min brings cooling, then surely hyper active cycle adds into our warming woes whilst raising the spectre of satellite losses and burned out transformers across the CME facing side of the planet (should we see X class flares frequently striking Earth?)?

    Morning GW, long time no speak.....

    Not a clue where this solar cycle is heading, just have to wait and see for a while. Whether it's high or low and the impact upon temperatures here, there's a bit of a problem with your post above. You've always argued that a Maunder like minimum would have no impact upon temps, that the connect between solar output and Earth temps is tenuous, so small it's considered to be negligible and that it could be discounted. So if a quiet Sun doesn't cool us down, an active Sun won't warm us up. Don't think you need to worry about it 😉

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    Posted
  • Location: Coniston, Cumbria 90m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: wintry
  • Location: Coniston, Cumbria 90m ASL

    Observed Flux Density 81.1

    Adjusted Flux Density 78.6 = low

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    Posted
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......
  • Weather Preferences: Hot & Sunny, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......

    Hi Jethro!

    Hope you've been keeping well?

    You are correct, I do not think the sun's variability gives anything like the forcing needed to calm the Planets warming issues?

    I think there is more variability in our pollution driven 'dimming' than from the sun's internal variability? (IMHO?)

    As I feel you very much suspect this news release did bring me a tad of satisfaction after the intransigence of those demanding a 'Maunder like Minimum' over these past decades?

    That said this 'offset' 22 yr magnetic cycle is something I've been aware of for a few years now and this cycle may well prove how useful a tool it may prove to be for the prediction of cycle strength that this combination of both Solar & Magnetic cycles might prove to be?

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    Posted
  • Location: Coniston, Cumbria 90m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: wintry
  • Location: Coniston, Cumbria 90m ASL

    Observed Flux Density 83.0

    Adjusted Flux Density 80.4 = low

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    Posted
  • Location: Coniston, Cumbria 90m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: wintry
  • Location: Coniston, Cumbria 90m ASL

    Observed Flux Density 83.2

    Adjusted Flux Density 80.6 = low

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    Posted
  • Location: Coniston, Cumbria 90m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: wintry
  • Location: Coniston, Cumbria 90m ASL

    Observed Flux Density 81.9

    Adjusted Flux Density 79.3 = low

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    Posted
  • Location: Coniston, Cumbria 90m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: wintry
  • Location: Coniston, Cumbria 90m ASL

    Observed Flux Density 81.94

    Adjusted Flux Density 78.8 = low

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    Posted
  • Location: Coniston, Cumbria 90m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: wintry
  • Location: Coniston, Cumbria 90m ASL
    SPACEWEATHER.GC.CA

    HTML version of latest solar radio flux report from DRAO, Penticton

    hasn't updated ...so showing same values as yesterday

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    Posted
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Hot sunny , cold and snowy, thunderstorms
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset

    1 day blank, 207 for 2020 58%

    Solar flux 82

    Thermosphere: 6.40

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    Posted
  • Location: Coniston, Cumbria 90m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: wintry
  • Location: Coniston, Cumbria 90m ASL

    Still no SF update

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    Posted
  • Location: South Ockendon, Thurrock, SW Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Severe frosts, Heavy snowfall, Thunder and lightning, Stormy weather
  • Location: South Ockendon, Thurrock, SW Essex
    WWW.SOLARHAM.NET

     

    image.thumb.png.41449e768bc521eda97364aeeb9b84f2.png

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    Posted
  • Location: South Ockendon, Thurrock, SW Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Severe frosts, Heavy snowfall, Thunder and lightning, Stormy weather
  • Location: South Ockendon, Thurrock, SW Essex

    image.thumb.png.d9a6113bc8d7687c1abf6b5c6cb5603c.png

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    Posted
  • Location: sunny sunny Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: Bartlett style mild and benign
  • Location: sunny sunny Bournemouth
    On 10/12/2020 at 20:35, Gray-Wolf said:

    Hmmmm......

    sunspot.jpg
    PHYS.ORG

    In direct contradiction to the official forecast, a team of scientists led by the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) is predicting that the Sunspot Cycle that started this fall could be one ...

     

    Interesting theory this... will make intriguing viewing to see how this cycle unfolds.

    I have posted a more detailed analysis and my thoughts of this cycle so far here:

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Coniston, Cumbria 90m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: wintry
  • Location: Coniston, Cumbria 90m ASL

    Still not updated ...anyone got a different source?

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    Posted
  • Location: sunny sunny Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: Bartlett style mild and benign
  • Location: sunny sunny Bournemouth
    5 hours ago, JeffC said:

    Still not updated ...anyone got a different source?

    Here;

    Solar flux is Updated once a day after 2100z and is the "raw" unadjusted value.

    The last month's data can be found here: https://solen.info/solar/indices.html

    I note that since the 16th, only integer values have been reported, so I guess something is up.

     

    Edited by Uncle_Barty
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    Posted
  • Location: Coniston, Cumbria 90m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: wintry
  • Location: Coniston, Cumbria 90m ASL
    1 hour ago, Uncle_Barty said:

    Here;

    Solar flux is Updated once a day after 2100z and is the "raw" unadjusted value.

    The last month's data can be found here: https://solen.info/solar/indices.html

    I note that since the 16th, only integer values have been reported, so I guess something is up.

     

    Thanks...maybe some kit failure or similar

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