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Posted
  • Location: sunny sunny Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: Bartlett style mild and benign
  • Location: sunny sunny Bournemouth
    1 hour ago, summer blizzard said:

    I suspect it's a spike. 

    The first two quarters were above 70% and the third above 60% which is a standard increase.

    sorry...  what are you referring to?

     

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    Just a few pics from early this morning at West Sands, St. Andrews  First one was 100iso eq @ f1.8 and 10 sec exposure, strong moonlight about midnight with the faintest of hint of an aurora.

    From Salon on the Isle Of Rum & The Isle Of Lewis tonight. Credit; Martin Keivers and Emma Mitchell.  

    More shots here from Scotland last night. Fingers crossed again tonight as there is another predicted Kp7 ☺

    Posted Images

    Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
    8 minutes ago, Uncle_Barty said:

    sorry...  what are you referring to?

     

    Spotless days. 

    Q3 and Q4 last year were both above 90%, Q1 and Q2 both above 70% and Q3 above 60%. This quarter has seen a strange surge but also saw a subdued October, that makes me think it's a spike rather than part of a trend. 

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    Posted
  • Location: sunny sunny Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: Bartlett style mild and benign
  • Location: sunny sunny Bournemouth
    6 minutes ago, summer blizzard said:

    Spotless days. 

    Q3 and Q4 last year were both above 90%, Q1 and Q2 both above 70% and Q3 above 60%. This quarter has seen a strange surge but also saw a subdued October, that makes me think it's a spike rather than part of a trend. 

    Ah, I see what you mean - ok.

    Time will tell if this is an early freakishly high burst of activity for this stage of a low solar cycle similar in strength to the last one, or a sign that this cycle will be bigger than most are expecting. Cycle 22, for example, rebounded very quickly in 1987, but that was a much bigger cycle after a shallower minimum (annual mean solar flux was around 72sfu during that min)

    I have put a more detailed post about this recent minimum, and what we can possibly expect in the coming years, on a radio forum here:

    I will keep it updated every so often, as posts in here will quickly get lost among the daily reports.

    Edited by Uncle_Barty
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    Posted
  • Location: Coniston, Cumbria 90m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: wintry
  • Location: Coniston, Cumbria 90m ASL

    Observed Flux Density 112.6

    Adjusted Flux Density 109.5 = medium

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Location: Manchester

    I remember back in September I was looking at the count of spotless days thinking we would do better than 2018. Now it looks almost certain we will fall behind. 😞

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    Posted
  • Location: sunny sunny Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: Bartlett style mild and benign
  • Location: sunny sunny Bournemouth

    yes, it;s been quite an abrupt rise in activity which continues to gather pace. Quite different to the start of C24 thus far.

    M4 flare in progress cant remember if it's the largest of the new cycle... appears to be right on the southeast limb from a region just rotating into view (probably old region 2781), so it's unlikely to be geoeffective.

    Edited by Uncle_Barty
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    Posted
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
    24 minutes ago, Uncle_Barty said:

    yes, it;s been quite an abrupt rise in activity which continues to gather pace. Quite different to the start of C24 thus far.

    M4 flare in progress cant remember if it's the largest of the new cycle... appears to be right on the southeast limb from a region just rotating into view (probably old region 2781), so it's unlikely to be geoeffective.

    Yes M4.4 currently the strongest of the new cycle thus far, As you say won't be geoeffective as directed away from Earth but the Sun is certainly starting to wake up now.

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    Posted
  • Location: Coniston, Cumbria 90m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: wintry
  • Location: Coniston, Cumbria 90m ASL

    Observed Flux Density 110.4

    Adjusted Flux Density 107.4 = medium

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    Posted
  • Location: Tornado Alley, west London
  • Location: Tornado Alley, west London
    6 hours ago, Polar Maritime said:

    Yes M4.4 currently the strongest of the new cycle thus far, As you say won't be geoeffective as directed away from Earth but the Sun is certainly starting to wake up now.

    According to spaceweather.com, it might even have been X-class.

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    Posted
  • Location: Coniston, Cumbria 90m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: wintry
  • Location: Coniston, Cumbria 90m ASL
    53 minutes ago, Crepuscular Ray said:

    According to spaceweather.com, it might even have been X-class.

    Let's hope it's a flash in the pan!!

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    Posted
  • Location: sunny sunny Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: Bartlett style mild and benign
  • Location: sunny sunny Bournemouth

    Produced an almost full halo CME as well.. quite a long duration event. I was listening around on 40m at the time, at the time of the flare, almost all signals disappeared as the blackout took effect.

    2000z solar flux 116 tonight  - another Cycle 25 high.

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    Posted
  • Location: Coniston, Cumbria 90m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: wintry
  • Location: Coniston, Cumbria 90m ASL

    Observed Flux Density 109.4

    Adjusted Flux Density 106.4 = medium

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    Posted
  • Location: Coniston, Cumbria 90m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: wintry
  • Location: Coniston, Cumbria 90m ASL

    Observed Flux Density 104.1

    Adjusted Flux Density 101.2 = medium

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Coniston, Cumbria 90m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: wintry
  • Location: Coniston, Cumbria 90m ASL

    Observed Flux Density 104.9

    Adjusted Flux Density 101.9 = medium

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    Posted
  • Location: sunny sunny Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: Bartlett style mild and benign
  • Location: sunny sunny Bournemouth

    November stats:

    Monthly Sunspot Number 34.0. This value not reached in Cycle 24 til Sept 2010, 21 months after solar minimum.

    Monthly solar flux 90.1. This value not reached in Cycle 24 until Feb 2011, 26 months after solar minimum.

    November was Month 12 of cycle 25. Too early to say whether this is a flash in the pan, or a pointer towards a substantially  bigger cycle this time.

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    Posted
  • Location: Coniston, Cumbria 90m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: wintry
  • Location: Coniston, Cumbria 90m ASL

    Observed Flux Density 102.9

    Adjusted Flux Density 99.9 = low (just!)

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    Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

    I wonder what the shortest cycle is, perhaps we might be looking at a quick peak. Remember the last cycle did have a double peak with the first coming pretty quickly.

    Edited by summer blizzard
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    Posted
  • Location: sunny sunny Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: Bartlett style mild and benign
  • Location: sunny sunny Bournemouth

    Shortest is 9 years - back in the 1700s.

    More recently, Cycle 22 lasted 10 years.

    Cycle 24 was a little strange in that it had 2 peaks.. the first peak was dominated by activity from the northern hemisphere, the seconbd was dominated by activity from the southern hemisphere. Had the two hemispheres peaked together, we probably would have had a rather higher peak overall.....

    Interestingly... the burst of activity in recent weeks has mostly come from the southern hemisphere.... given that SH activity has lagged behind (in terms of time) NH, one would expect NH to be leading the charge now. In fact, what has happened is that after the NH peak in 2011, activity from the north has been consistently weak and isnt yet showing much sign of recovery.

    What this will mean for Cycle 25 is unclear....

    See this graph from solen.info: https://solen.info/solar/images/cycle24.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Edinburgh (previously Chelmsford and Birmingham)
  • Weather Preferences: Unseasonably cold weather (at all times of year), wind, and thunderstorms.
  • Location: Edinburgh (previously Chelmsford and Birmingham)
    1 hour ago, Uncle_Barty said:

    Shortest is 9 years - back in the 1700s.

    More recently, Cycle 22 lasted 10 years.

    Cycle 24 was a little strange in that it had 2 peaks.. the first peak was dominated by activity from the northern hemisphere, the seconbd was dominated by activity from the southern hemisphere. Had the two hemispheres peaked together, we probably would have had a rather higher peak overall.....

    Interestingly... the burst of activity in recent weeks has mostly come from the southern hemisphere.... given that SH activity has lagged behind (in terms of time) NH, one would expect NH to be leading the charge now. In fact, what has happened is that after the NH peak in 2011, activity from the north has been consistently weak and isnt yet showing much sign of recovery.

    What this will mean for Cycle 25 is unclear....

    See this graph from solen.info: https://solen.info/solar/images/cycle24.png

    Could that not be a consequence of the pole flip? Activity associated with the south pole (north pole in cycle 24) has remained more active, for whatever reason.

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    Posted
  • Location: sunny sunny Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: Bartlett style mild and benign
  • Location: sunny sunny Bournemouth
    3 hours ago, Relativistic said:

    Could that not be a consequence of the pole flip? Activity associated with the south pole (north pole in cycle 24) has remained more active, for whatever reason.

    Yes, that could well be it. Good shout. I hadn't thought of that.

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    Posted
  • Location: Coniston, Cumbria 90m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: wintry
  • Location: Coniston, Cumbria 90m ASL

    Observed Flux Density 97.9

    Adjusted Flux Density 95.1 = low

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    Posted
  • Location: Coniston, Cumbria 90m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: wintry
  • Location: Coniston, Cumbria 90m ASL

    Observed Flux Density 95.7

    Adjusted Flux Density  93.0 = low

     

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    Posted
  • Location: sunny sunny Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: Bartlett style mild and benign
  • Location: sunny sunny Bournemouth

    1800 sfi values:

    Observed : 98.0

    Adjusted: 95.1

    There was a long duration C5 (or so ) flare in progress at the time which may have elevated the numbers. Suspect the 2000 readings will be lower, perhaps around the 90 mark.

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Coniston, Cumbria 90m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: wintry
  • Location: Coniston, Cumbria 90m ASL
    57 minutes ago, Uncle_Barty said:

    1800 sfi values:

    Observed : 98.0

    Adjusted: 95.1

    There was a long duration C5 (or so ) flare in progress at the time which may have elevated the numbers. Suspect the 2000 readings will be lower, perhaps around the 90 mark.

     

    Will try to have a look later

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    Posted
  • Location: Coniston, Cumbria 90m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: wintry
  • Location: Coniston, Cumbria 90m ASL

    Observed Flux Density 89.5

    Adjusted Flux Density 86.8 = low

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