Jump to content
Cold?
Local
Radar
Snow?

Solar and Aurora Activity Chat


Recommended Posts

Posted
  • Location: Coniston, Cumbria 90m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: wintry
  • Location: Coniston, Cumbria 90m ASL

    Observed Flux Density 76.6

    Adjusted Flux Density 74.9 = low

    • Like 2
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Spotted a post you think may be an issue? Please help the team by reporting it.
    • Replies 7.9k
    • Created
    • Last Reply

    Top Posters In This Topic

    Top Posters In This Topic

    Popular Posts

    Just a few pics from early this morning at West Sands, St. Andrews  First one was 100iso eq @ f1.8 and 10 sec exposure, strong moonlight about midnight with the faintest of hint of an aurora.

    More shots here from Scotland last night. Fingers crossed again tonight as there is another predicted Kp7 ☺

    From Salon on the Isle Of Rum & The Isle Of Lewis tonight. Credit; Martin Keivers and Emma Mitchell.  

    Posted Images

    Posted
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Hot sunny , cold and snowy, thunderstorms
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset

    2 days blank,  206 for 2020, 64%

    Solar flux 77

    Thermosphere: 5.65

    • Like 2
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Coniston, Cumbria 90m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: wintry
  • Location: Coniston, Cumbria 90m ASL

    Observed Flux Density 79.1

    Adjusted Flux Density 77.3 = low

    Don't like that bump up..

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

    New sunspot.

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Hot sunny , cold and snowy, thunderstorms
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset

    Yep, I suspect we are now in a period where spots are more frequent than blank days.

    What the feeling on next years spotless count? 

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: just behind Epsom Racecourse and the center of York
  • Location: just behind Epsom Racecourse and the center of York
    10 minutes ago, SteveB said:

    Yep, I suspect we are now in a period where spots are more frequent than blank days.

    What the feeling on next years spotless count? 

    It would not surprise me if it was between 50 and 100. I think we are seeing a rapid switch fom minimum conditions although at this time activity remains very low I mean by this the sunspot number being between 11 and 20 although we have seen some days above this recently

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Hot sunny , cold and snowy, thunderstorms
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset
    2 hours ago, jonboy said:

    It would not surprise me if it was between 50 and 100. I think we are seeing a rapid switch fom minimum conditions although at this time activity remains very low I mean by this the sunspot number being between 11 and 20 although we have seen some days above this recently

    I think 100 will to high, more nearer the 50 or below. 

    • Like 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Coniston, Cumbria 90m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: wintry
  • Location: Coniston, Cumbria 90m ASL

    Observed Flux Density 79.6

    Adjusted Flux Density 77.8 = low

    • Like 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Coniston, Cumbria 90m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: wintry
  • Location: Coniston, Cumbria 90m ASL

    Observed Flux Density 81.0

    Adjusted Flux Density 79.1 = low

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Tunbridge Wells, Kent
  • Location: Tunbridge Wells, Kent
    On 18/11/2020 at 10:02, SteveB said:

    Yep, I suspect we are now in a period where spots are more frequent than blank days.

    What the feeling on next years spotless count? 

    Less than 10 - last minimum feel away very quickly and I think this will also 

    • Like 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Coniston, Cumbria 90m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: wintry
  • Location: Coniston, Cumbria 90m ASL

    Observed Flux Density 81.1

    Adjusted Flux Density 79.2 = low

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Coniston, Cumbria 90m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: wintry
  • Location: Coniston, Cumbria 90m ASL

    Observed Flux Density 81.8

    Adjusted Flux Density 79.8 = low

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Coniston, Cumbria 90m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: wintry
  • Location: Coniston, Cumbria 90m ASL

    Observed Flux Density 87.7

    Adjusted Flux Density 85.5 = low, but seems a little more on going activity...

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Coniston, Cumbria 90m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: wintry
  • Location: Coniston, Cumbria 90m ASL

    Observed Flux Density 95.5

    Adjusted Flux Density 93.1= low  but only just!!

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Coniston, Cumbria 90m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: wintry
  • Location: Coniston, Cumbria 90m ASL

    Observed Flux Density 99.8

    Adjusted Flux Density 97.3 = low

    Disappointingly high...😤

     

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: sunny sunny Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: Bartlett style mild and benign
  • Location: sunny sunny Bournemouth
    On 20/11/2020 at 19:27, Stu_London said:

    Less than 10 - last minimum feel away very quickly and I think this will also 

    Au contraire.... solar activity took a very long time to properly ramp up after the 23/24 minimum.

    Solar flux was still only peaking around the 90 mark in late 2010 - two years after the minimum - before finally ramping up a bit in the first half of 2011. It would be the 26th month (Feb 2011) after minimum before tonight's value of 100 would be reached.

    At the moment we are in month 13 of the new cycle.

    At the same stage - late in the second year after solar min, C23 was peaking in the 130-140s and C22 was nearing 200!

    How big will this cycle be? Most forecasts are for a similar peak to Cycle 24, there are a couple including NASA predicting a very low cycle, lower than last time, there is another predicting a high one, bigger than 23 and perhaps nearly as large as Cycle 21 and 22, but that is a bit of an outlier!  I think that is unlikely at this stage.

    One method of forecasting maxima is taking the strength of the solar polar magnetic fields at minimum.. this was pretty accurate for the last four cycles, so for me, the prediction of a similar size to C24, perhaps slightly (maybe 5-10%) bigger  is going to be closest to the mark.

    It's very early days for this cycle yet, but we do seem to be, in the short term, ramping up quicker than last time, and certainly more than I was expecting.

    This evening, WWV are reporting a solar flux of 100 as some fairly active regions rotate into view, and there are a couple more interesting looking regions about 3-4 days from rotating into view.

    *If* we are to exceed the last cycle by a considerable margin as per the outlier forecast mentioned above, we would probably need to see the solar flux routinely exceed 100 on peaks during the coming months up to , say, June.. time will tell whether the current ramp-up is a bit of an early freak (with activity dropping back (and sfu stuck in the 70s / a reasonable no. of spotless days  for an extended period), or a real sign of some early precociousness from the new Cycle...

    We shall see!

    • Like 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Coniston, Cumbria 90m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: wintry
  • Location: Coniston, Cumbria 90m ASL

    Observed Flux Density 103.7

    Adjusted Flux Density 101.0 = medium 😨

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Tunbridge Wells, Kent
  • Location: Tunbridge Wells, Kent
    On 24/11/2020 at 23:01, Uncle_Barty said:

    Au contraire.... solar activity took a very long time to properly ramp up after the 23/24 minimum.

    Solar flux was still only peaking around the 90 mark in late 2010 - two years after the minimum - before finally ramping up a bit in the first half of 2011. It would be the 26th month (Feb 2011) after minimum before tonight's value of 100 would be reached.

     

     

    Agree 24 did take longer time wise to get going and although a weak cycle, generally speaking once it was up and running there were very few spotless days

    25 is starting to feel like we are at that point - so I am not expecting many more spotless days - but I could be wrong

    Edited by Stu_London
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: sunny sunny Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: Bartlett style mild and benign
  • Location: sunny sunny Bournemouth
    1 hour ago, Stu_London said:

    Agree 24 did take longer time wise to get going and although a weak cycle, generally speaking once it was up and running there were very few spotless days

    25 is starting to feel like we are at that point - so I am not expecting many more spotless days - but I could be wrong

    Number of spotless days by year:

    2019 total: 228 days (75%) (up to October '19)
    2018 total: 221 days (61%)
    2017 total: 104 days (28%)
    2016 total: 32 days (9%)
    2015 total: 0 days (0%)
    2014 total: 1 day (<1%)
    2013 total: 0 days (0%)
    2012 total: 0 days (0%)
    2011 total: 2 days (<1%)
    2010 total: 51 days (14%)
    2009 total: 260 days (71%)
    2008 total: 268 days (73%)

    So yes, once things kicked off a bit more in early 2011, the spotless days stopped. 2010 comprised the 2nd year of Cycle 24, yet still had 51 spotless days. It remains to be seen if 2021 will have that many - early signs are that it probably won't, but who knows?!

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Coniston, Cumbria 90m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: wintry
  • Location: Coniston, Cumbria 90m ASL

    Observed Flux Density 105.7

    Adjusted Flux Density 102.9 = medium

    Disappointingly staying slightly elevated...

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
    13 hours ago, Weather-history said:

    Sunspots today

    Yn3SWRB.jpg

    Starting to look a little ugly that!

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Coniston, Cumbria 90m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: wintry
  • Location: Coniston, Cumbria 90m ASL

    Observed Flux Density 110.2

    Adjusted Flux Density  107.3  =  medium

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: sunny sunny Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: Bartlett style mild and benign
  • Location: sunny sunny Bournemouth

    Jeff.. where do you get that figure from, please?? Source?

     

    Edited by Uncle_Barty
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

    I suspect it's a spike. 

    The first two quarters were above 70% and the third above 60% which is a standard increase.

    Link to post
    Share on other sites

    Create an account or sign in to comment

    You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

    Create an account

    Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

    Register a new account

    Sign in

    Already have an account? Sign in here.

    Sign In Now
    ×
    ×
    • Create New...