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Solar and Aurora Activity Chat


shuggee

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Posted
  • Location: East Coast Canada
  • Location: East Coast Canada

Hi Debs,

Theses thing can be quite unpredictable at times.

I noticed the area here is quite right now.

However, here is a link to NRC that has information specific to 'local' areas.

Check here when you hear or suspect there may be aural activity.

I find the site quite accurate.

LOL, hope you guys on the other side of the Bay have clearer skies than over here.

NRC Link..

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  • 2 weeks later...
Posted
  • Location: Larbert
  • Location: Larbert

Found this quite interesting too:

the peak of SS20 was 1969/70, and the nearest J/S opposition was 1971-72

the peak of SS21 was 1980/82, and the nearest J/S conjunction was 1981

the peak of SS22 was 1984/92, and the nearest J/S opposition was 1991

the peak of SS23 was 1999/02, and the nearest J/S conjunction was 2000-01

the peak of SS24 should be 2010, and the nearest J/S opposition will be 2011.

A sunspot is said usually underway about 1-2 years before peak. Our calculations therefore are that SS24 should begin in Sept 09.

https://www.predictweather.co.nz/assets/art..._home.php?id=32

:D

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Posted
  • Location: ilminster Somerset
  • Location: ilminster Somerset

beaten to it as usual.as mentioned above another wimp like c24 sunspot

from SIDC

GEOALERT BRU056

UGEOA 30512 90225 1231/ 9930/

10252 20252 30252

99999

PLAIN

NOTE: the above forecasts are valid from 1230UT, 25 Feb 2009 until 27 Feb 2009

PREDICTIONS FOR 25 Feb 2009 10CM FLUX: 071 / AP: 003

PREDICTIONS FOR 26 Feb 2009 10CM FLUX: 071 / AP: 002

PREDICTIONS FOR 27 Feb 2009 10CM FLUX: 072 / AP: 005

COMMENT: Catania sunspot group 96, NOAA AR 1013 has emerged yesterday.

Due to a low X-ray flux background (below the A level), we do not expect

this sunspot group to produce a flare above the B level. The Earth is

currently inside a slow (420 km/s) solar wind flow with weak (3-4 nT)

interplanetary magnetic field. We thus expect quiet geomagnetic

conditions.

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  • 2 weeks later...
Posted
  • Location: ilminster Somerset
  • Location: ilminster Somerset

a tiny sunspot has emerged at the centre if the solar disc indicating that it is probaly a C23 SUNSPOT

GEOALERT BRU065

UGEOA 30512 90306 1327/ 9930/

10062 20062 30062

99999

PLAIN

NOTE: the above forecasts are valid from 1230UT, 06 Mar 2009 until 08 Mar 2009

PREDICTIONS FOR 06 Mar 2009 10CM FLUX: 070 / AP: 002

PREDICTIONS FOR 07 Mar 2009 10CM FLUX: 071 / AP: 002

PREDICTIONS FOR 08 Mar 2009 10CM FLUX: 070 / AP: 003

COMMENT: A new tiny sunspot is observed near the equator. The all-quiet

alert stays valid: no flares, no geomagnetic disturbances, no proton

event.

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Posted
  • Location: Cheddar Valley, 20mtrs asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and lots of it or warm and sunny, no mediocre dross
  • Location: Cheddar Valley, 20mtrs asl

NASA finally conceding something out of the ordinary is going on with this Solar minimum:

http://nspires.nasaprs.com/external/viewre...B.9%20CCMSC.pdf

http://nspires.nasaprs.com/external/solici...}&path=open

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Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

NASA finally conceding something out of the ordinary is going on with this Solar minimum:

So you'll know what will happen now the sun will wake up. This could be a very interesting period of our history coming up.

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Posted
  • Location: Larbert
  • Location: Larbert

According to NASA, we are seeing:

• The lowest sustained solar radio flux since the F10.7 proxy was created in 1947;

• Solar wind is the lowest observed since the beginning of the space age;

• The solar wind magnetic field 36 percent weaker than during the minimum of Solar Cycle 23;

• Effectively no sunspots

• Cosmic rays at near record-high levels.

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Posted
  • Location: York
  • Weather Preferences: Long warm summer evenings. Cold frosty sunny winter days.
  • Location: York

According to NASA, we are seeing:

• The lowest sustained solar radio flux since the F10.7 proxy was created in 1947;

• Solar wind is the lowest observed since the beginning of the space age;

• The solar wind magnetic field 36 percent weaker than during the minimum of Solar Cycle 23;

• Effectively no sunspots

• Cosmic rays at near record-high levels.

All we need now is for someone to look at the theory in respect of cosmic rays and cloud formation which I'm sure will be doing and we could see the whole theory of future global warming turned upside down

Jon

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Posted
  • Location: Larbert
  • Location: Larbert

Where have all the sunspots gone? The sun has been blank on 85% of the days of 2009. If this rate of spotlessness continues through the end of the year, 2009 will match 1913 as the blankest year of the past century. A flurry of new-cycle sunspots in Oct. 2008 prompted some observers to declare that solar minimum was ending, but since then the calm has returned. We are still in the pits of a deep solar minimum

http://www.spaceweather.com/

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Posted
  • Location: portsmouth uk
  • Weather Preferences: extremes
  • Location: portsmouth uk

dam you beat me to it lol.

but will it stay like this that is the trillion dollar question?

dont seem to be making many headlines either i wonder if it would if it where to continue for another 6 to 8 months would it start to hit the media.

although i dont think its that much to worry about if it where to go through 2009 like this because it would still only be on par with 1913 and i dont think it was anything special back then in terms of climate.

although if it where to carry on for years then i would be different surely. :whistling:

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Posted
  • Location: Cheddar Valley, 20mtrs asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and lots of it or warm and sunny, no mediocre dross
  • Location: Cheddar Valley, 20mtrs asl

Seems the quiet Sun has been noticed, scroll down to item 5

http://www.istockanalyst.com/article/viewa...ticleid/3161124

Anyone got any John Deere shares?

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Posted
  • Location: ilminster Somerset
  • Location: ilminster Somerset

latest from nasa,sort of admitting the next maximun,when it finally arrives ,will be well below average!!

http://science.nasa.gov/headlines/y2009/01...olarminimum.htm

and hey jethro i,ve got some ploughshares!!

Edited by blackdown
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Posted
  • Location: Cheddar Valley, 20mtrs asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and lots of it or warm and sunny, no mediocre dross
  • Location: Cheddar Valley, 20mtrs asl

latest from nasa,sort of admitting the next maximun,when it finally arrives ,will be well below average!!

http://science.nasa.gov/headlines/y2009/01...olarminimum.htm

and hey jethro i,ve got some ploughshares!!

Awroight moi baba, how be yon?

You hang onto them, you never know what may happen; historically a quiet Sun led to increased prices in grain. There's a lot more people to feed these days, Bio fuels have made a sizeable dent in those grain stocks too. Might be worth a speculative glance at John Deere or grain shares.

Edited by jethro
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Posted
  • Location: Larbert
  • Location: Larbert

Here are the averages since January 2007.

Jan 07 22.7

Feb 07 18.5

Mar 07 11.2

Apr 07 12.2

May 07 15.8

Jun 07 18.7

Jul 07 15.4

Aug 07 10.2

Sep 07 5.4

Oct 07 3.0

Nov 07 6.9

Dec 07 8.1

Jan 08 8.5

Feb 08 8.4

Mar 08 8.4

Apr 08 8.9

May 08 5.0

Jun 08 3.7

Jul 08 2.0

Aug 08 1.1

Sep 08 2.5

Oct 08 4.5

Nov 08 4.4

Dec 08 3.7

Jan 09 2.3

Feb 09 2.1

Using this table, we have been fooled before, thinking that an up-trend would continue. Take a look at the periods centered on October 2007 or August 2008.

Edited by Delta X-Ray
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  • 2 weeks later...
Posted
  • Location: Norton, Stockton-on-Tees
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and cold in winter, warm and sunny in summer
  • Location: Norton, Stockton-on-Tees

No posts for 10 days in this thread.

Simple reason - still no sunspots.

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Posted
  • Location: Larbert
  • Location: Larbert

From Solar Cycle24.com forum:

If this period lasts longer than 42 days it will be the longest spotless period since 1913. If it lasts longer than 92 days, it will be the longest since the early 19th century during the Dalton minimum.

Addendum: Today, April 14th, if it stays spotless, marks the 90th spotless day of the year and therefore we have hit 600 spotless days for the cycle 23/24 min. How many more? Will we reach 800? 1000?

Most telling

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Posted
  • Location: Near Beverley, East Yorks. (5 metres a.s.l.)
  • Weather Preferences: Something good in all four seasons
  • Location: Near Beverley, East Yorks. (5 metres a.s.l.)

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/scienceandtechn...tic-Circle.html

Here's a link to 29 beautiful photos of recent Aurora

Enjoy.

BL :)

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Posted
  • Location: ilminster Somerset
  • Location: ilminster Somerset

yay!

A new sunspot is forming at the circled location. The magnetic polarity of the spot identifies it as a member of new Solar Cycle 24. Credit: SOHO/MDI

Daily Sun: 21 Apr 09

http://spaceweather.com/

NEW SUNSPOT: Breaking a string of 25 consecutive spotless days, a new sunspot is forming near the sun's northwestern limb. The magnetic polarity of the spot identifies it as a member of new Solar Cycle 24. Readers, if you have a solar telescope, now is the time to watch sunspot genesis in action.

Edited by blackdown
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