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Posted
  • Location: Kingdom of Fife: 56.2º N, 3.2º W
  • Location: Kingdom of Fife: 56.2º N, 3.2º W

    Nice low arc photographed on Lewis Outer Hebrides - image by John Gray featured on Spaceweather

    http://www.spaceweather.com/aurora/images2...dec06/gray1.jpg

    Note: Hope it's OK to post this link - if not perhaps a Mod could remove the post

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    Just a few pics from early this morning at West Sands, St. Andrews  First one was 100iso eq @ f1.8 and 10 sec exposure, strong moonlight about midnight with the faintest of hint of an aurora.

    From Salon on the Isle Of Rum & The Isle Of Lewis tonight. Credit; Martin Keivers and Emma Mitchell.  

    More shots here from Scotland last night. Fingers crossed again tonight as there is another predicted Kp7 ☺

    Posted Images

    Posted
  • Location: Sth Staffs/Shrops 105m/345' & NW Snowdonia 219m/719'
  • Location: Sth Staffs/Shrops 105m/345' & NW Snowdonia 219m/719'

    Forecast from spacew.com 02:00 UTC 07 December 06

    .... A more significant chance of wider-spread auroral activity will be possible later this week and into next week as effects from recent major solar flare activity begin to arrive at the Earth. Impacts should commence on 8 December (from the first major limb flare on 5 December). A stronger impact is expected from the last major X-class flare of 6 December. That impact is currently (on a preliminary analysis) expected during the early to mid-UTC hours of 9 December. Arrival estimates may be less accurate due to the temporary loss of the SOHO LASCO cameras, which are used to help derive coronal mass ejection velocities.

    Edited by kar999
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    Posted
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......
  • Weather Preferences: Hot & Sunny, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......

    Maybe, just maybe..

    * Michigan, Minnesota and Wisconsin are lower latitudes than the UK.

    And still a big bright moon (Booh). Maybe as the mamma of this ejection turns to face us she'll pop off another biggie and coincide it with a clear night and a moon not risen!!!!

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    Posted
  • Location: Larbert
  • Location: Larbert

    NOTE: The Solar X-ray Imager onboard NOAA's GOES-13 satellite is experiencing an anomaly possibly related to the X9-flare of Dec. 5th. NOAA and NASA staff are investigating. Meanwhile, coronal hole updates are suspended.

    :)

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    Posted
  • Location: Sth Staffs/Shrops 105m/345' & NW Snowdonia 219m/719'
  • Location: Sth Staffs/Shrops 105m/345' & NW Snowdonia 219m/719'

    Here we go.... (possibly!) :)

    From spaceweather.com

    Space Weather News for Dec. 13, 2006

    X-FLARE: Sunspot 930 erupted again this morning, producing a strong

    X3-class solar flare. The blast triggered an ongoing radiation storm and

    probably hurled a coronal mass ejection (CME) toward Earth. Auroras are

    possible when the CME arrives on Dec. 14th or 15th.

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    Posted
  • Location: Kingdom of Fife: 56.2º N, 3.2º W
  • Location: Kingdom of Fife: 56.2º N, 3.2º W

    At X3 it should produce some activity. Depends a lot on its magnetic orientation - look for Bz going south. Good news is the moon will be past 3rd quarter and won't rise untill 2.51am here on the 15th.

    TuTiempo: Moon Phase Calender, December 2006

    Hope this damned rain stops before it arrives :clap:

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    Posted
  • Location: Kingdom of Fife: 56.2º N, 3.2º W
  • Location: Kingdom of Fife: 56.2º N, 3.2º W

    Huge proton event associated with this flare - check out the 'snowstorm' on LASCO C3 :clap:

    http://soho.nascom.nasa.gov/data/realtime/...213_0442_c3.gif

    Edit: LASOC C3 movie of event http://www.spaceweather.com/images2006/13d...me_c3_strip.gif

    Edited by frogesque
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    Posted
  • Location: Sth Staffs/Shrops 105m/345' & NW Snowdonia 219m/719'
  • Location: Sth Staffs/Shrops 105m/345' & NW Snowdonia 219m/719'

    Hope this damned rain stops before it arrives http://nwstatic.co.uk/forum/public/style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/laugh.gif

    Not looking good for your region...

    Fife Region

    Mine's no better either! :clap:

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    Posted
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......
  • Weather Preferences: Hot & Sunny, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......

    Maybe by tomorrow/Fri things will be a little more broken (cloud wise) but the Geminids tonight look like a 'no-show' from here at least!

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    Posted
  • Location: Kingdom of Fife: 56.2º N, 3.2º W
  • Location: Kingdom of Fife: 56.2º N, 3.2º W

    Space Weather Advisories

    SPACE WEATHER ADVISORY BULLETIN #06- 4

    2006 December 13 at 8:02 a.m. MST (2006 December 13 1502 UTC)

    **** ACTIVE SUNSPOT GROUP PRODUCES SIGNIFICANT FLARE ****

    NOAA sunspot Region 930 produced a category R3 (Strong) radio blackout with an associated S2 (Moderate) solar radiation storm at 0240 UTC, 13 December (9:40 P.M. EST, 12 December). The SOHO/LASCO instrument also observed a powerful and fast Earth directed coronal mass ejection with this activity. As a result of this activity, a significant geomagnetic storm is expected to impact the Earth approximately 1800 UTC, 14 December (1:00 P.M. EST). NOAA sunspot Region 930 yielded a strong R3 radio blackout and a strong S3 solar radiation storm on 05 December. This region has been unproductive over the past five days. The active region is now a large sunspot cluster which is still rotating across the visible disk. Because of the current position of Region 930, further activity has greater potential to promptly impact Earth.

    Agencies impacted by space weather storms should continue to closely monitor space weather conditions during the next five days.

    So, if anyone has clear skies be on the look out about 6.00pm onwards tomorrow.

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    Posted
  • Location: Sth Staffs/Shrops 105m/345' & NW Snowdonia 219m/719'
  • Location: Sth Staffs/Shrops 105m/345' & NW Snowdonia 219m/719'

    So, if anyone has clear skies be on the look out about 6.00pm onwards tomorrow.

    Thanks for posting that update. It's always tricky knowing the speed of the CME and when it will hit. Unfortunately I have a forecast for 100% cloud cover!

    Anyone own a Lear Jet I can borrow for the night? :clap:

    Edited by kar999
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    Posted
  • Location: Larbert
  • Location: Larbert

    Space weather for the next 24 hours is expected to be severe.

    Geomagnetic storms reaching the G4 level are expected.

    Solar radiation storms reaching the S2 level are expected.

    Radio blackouts reaching the R2 level are expected.

    http://www.solarcycle24.com/

    G4? :clap:

    G 4

    Severe

    Power systems: possible widespread voltage control problems and some protective systems will mistakenly trip out key assets from the grid.

    Spacecraft operations: may experience surface charging and tracking problems, corrections may be needed for orientation problems.

    Other systems: induced pipeline currents affect preventive measures, HF radio propagation sporadic, satellite navigation degraded for hours, low-frequency radio navigation disrupted, and aurora has been seen as low as Alabama and northern California (typically 45° geomagnetic lat.)**.[/ http://nwstatic.co.uk/forum/public/style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/laugh.gif

    http://www.sec.noaa.gov/NOAAscales/index.h...omagneticStorms Edited by Mondy
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    Posted
  • Location: Sth Staffs/Shrops 105m/345' & NW Snowdonia 219m/719'
  • Location: Sth Staffs/Shrops 105m/345' & NW Snowdonia 219m/719'

    Assuming a geomagnetic storm does kick off tonight, I think most of us aren't going to see much if these Met Office cloud cover forecasts hold true.

    Some parts of Northern and North East Scotland as well as some of the Northern Isles/Outer Hebrides may be in with a chance and at their latitudes should be well placed.

    Cloud cover forecast Tonight 9pm

    Midnight tonight

    Tomorrow 3am

    Frogesque, don't hold your breath, but that does look like a window to the heavens at 3am in your neck of the woods! :D

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    Posted
  • Location: Sth Staffs/Shrops 105m/345' & NW Snowdonia 219m/719'
  • Location: Sth Staffs/Shrops 105m/345' & NW Snowdonia 219m/719'
    Posted
  • Location: Sth Staffs/Shrops 105m/345' & NW Snowdonia 219m/719'
  • Location: Sth Staffs/Shrops 105m/345' & NW Snowdonia 219m/719'

    N.B. The above links to those cloud forecasts are real time so have changed since I first posted them (and look worse now!)

    Edited by kar999
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    Posted
  • Location: Kingdom of Fife: 56.2º N, 3.2º W
  • Location: Kingdom of Fife: 56.2º N, 3.2º W

    This baby is fast! CME has arrived early.

    Spaceweather:

    "AURORA ALERT: Sky watchers, be alert for auroras. A coronal mass ejection (CME) hit Earth today at approximately 1400 UT, and the impact may cause strong geomagnetic storms. Stay tuned for updates.

    The CME was hurled toward Earth on Dec. 13th by an X3-class explosion from sunspot 930:"

    EDIT: Kp already at 6

    Edited by frogesque
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    Posted
  • Location: Sth Staffs/Shrops 105m/345' & NW Snowdonia 219m/719'
  • Location: Sth Staffs/Shrops 105m/345' & NW Snowdonia 219m/719'

    G2 geomagnetic storm in progress.

    Viking and Tigmistress might be the only ones to get a view if anything shows. I suspect I'll have to resort to just watching those Skandanavian webcams... again!

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    Posted
  • Location: Kingdom of Fife: 56.2º N, 3.2º W
  • Location: Kingdom of Fife: 56.2º N, 3.2º W

    Yep, weather is a bummer :( Been tipping down again today but I'll keep checking. There's an off chance if I go to the NE coast I'll be in a rain shadow with maybe some cloudbreaks but at the moment I'm not hopefull. It's also not my first choice of location because of the light pollution from Dundee

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    Posted
  • Location: Upper Tweeddale, Scottish Borders 240m ASL
  • Location: Upper Tweeddale, Scottish Borders 240m ASL

    KP6 atm - and look at that the middle dial indicating speed; she's going to go off the scale!

    Posted Image

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    Posted
  • Location: Sth Staffs/Shrops 105m/345' & NW Snowdonia 219m/719'
  • Location: Sth Staffs/Shrops 105m/345' & NW Snowdonia 219m/719'

    Shuggee, was that in your finest Scottie Star Trek accent? :(

    It's always worth checking the Met Office Scottish webcams. http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/webcam/

    This one was taking from the Eskdalemuir one during a big storm couple of years ago. (The spelling mistake is not mine!)

    post-1596-1166113482_thumb.jpg

    Edited by kar999
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    Posted
  • Location: Kingdom of Fife: 56.2º N, 3.2º W
  • Location: Kingdom of Fife: 56.2º N, 3.2º W

    Yep it's pretty fast Shuggs - just hope there's some good -ve Bz component mixed in with it at the moment it's been hovering just slightly -ve. That said, substorms (when you get the best light shows) seem to happen when Bz makes a sudden change.

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    Posted
  • Location: Kingdom of Fife: 56.2º N, 3.2º W
  • Location: Kingdom of Fife: 56.2º N, 3.2º W

    Auroral oval is expanding rapidly and heading into the brown(watch for it starting to turn red) . Activity level is maxed at 10

    Edited by frogesque
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