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On 01/03/2020 at 12:50, Katrine Basso said:

I have heard that the chance of getting cold winters increase at the end of solar minimum as it begins to enter to enter solar maximum, not during it.

Yes I think I saw someone post a research paper a few years back, apparently northern blocking is more prevalent in the ascending phase ( between minimum and maximum) 

 

Hopefully we'll get a few good volcano eruptions in the mean time which are also supposed to be more prevalent during solar minimums,  so the ash blocks some of the sun

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Just a few pics from early this morning at West Sands, St. Andrews  First one was 100iso eq @ f1.8 and 10 sec exposure, strong moonlight about midnight with the faintest of hint of an aurora.

From Salon on the Isle Of Rum & The Isle Of Lewis tonight. Credit; Martin Keivers and Emma Mitchell.  

More shots here from Scotland last night. Fingers crossed again tonight as there is another predicted Kp7 ☺

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1 hour ago, karyo said:

We have just reached 73% of spotless days so far this year. Will we make it to 77%? 

No to do so would suggest that minimum hasn't been reached and all indications would suggest we will start the uptick sometime soon. I fully expect something around the 74/75% mark come year end

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On 03/03/2020 at 12:34, jonboy said:

No to do so would suggest that minimum hasn't been reached and all indications would suggest we will start the uptick sometime soon. I fully expect something around the 74/75% mark come year end

It would be a remarkable minimum if there are anywhere near that amount of spotless days in 2020. It would exceed the number of spotless days in the last minimum (which was the deepest in almost 100 years) and by spring 2021 would be pushing towards the all time records in the late 19th and early 20th century, when it is likely that less sophisticated methods of measurement meant that there were many days recorded as spotless that wouldn't be in this day and age.

Personally, I think we will see an uptick in activity in the second half of the year with far less spotless days. If I had to guess, somewhere between 50% and 55% of days to be spotless in 2020.

Agree with other contributors about colder NH winters tending to be at the end of cycles. Whilst a rock solid scientific causal link is yet to be established, the anecdotal evidence seems to suggest that any effect on climate and weather patterns appears to be cumulative in nature. I would expect if we do see a grand minimum with 3 or more low cycles then those effects will be cumulative too.

Of course, there were plenty of mild winter months in the Dalton minimum, so even if there is a link, then there are no guarantees. It might just mean the dice are loaded slightly more in favour of severe winter cold. With background warming seemingly accelerating, we will need all the help we can get. 

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Looking at analogues with two years above 180 (a little over 50%) we are looking at..

1857

1880

1903

1913

2010

All produced a quick rebound with sub 100 sunspots bar 1913 which holds the record for 311 spotless days.

.

If we instead move to a threshold above a third for two consecutive years (120 sunspots consecutively) then we get..

1857

1877

1890

1902

1913

1924

1935

1955

2009

These analogues basically tend to assume a longer minimum. They still go for lower numbers than year 2 bar 1913 but 33% are above 180 (1902, 1913, 2009) and a majority are above 120.

.

The final scenario to consider is that the minima around 1889, 1901 and 1913 did follow relatively weak peaks like ours and all peaked in year 3 of triple digits which would be this year, they all had 4 years above 100. For this to be our pattern though we would need to assume we are running at record pace though.

 

 

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1 hour ago, summer blizzard said:

Do we know if this one will be revised down. It’s our second period beating anything in 08/09 and the second in four months if it stands.

Why would it be revised down. There has been nothing remotely resembling a sunspot in the last 33 days

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8 minutes ago, jonboy said:

Why would it be revised down. There has been nothing remotely resembling a sunspot in the last 33 days

A lot of the get revised for some reason.

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45 minutes ago, summer blizzard said:

Any indication they’d amend this spell?

No, February would’ve been amended by now as they do it on the 1st or 2nd day of the new month.

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Extract from spaceweather.com:

AR2758 continues a trend of increasing Solar Cycle 25 activity. So far this year, there have been 4 numbered sunspots (including AR2758). Three of them (75%) have been from Solar Cycle 25. This compares to only 17% in 2019 and 0% in 2018. Solar Cycle 25 is still weak, but it is coming.

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9 hours ago, karyo said:

Extract from spaceweather.com:

AR2758 continues a trend of increasing Solar Cycle 25 activity. So far this year, there have been 4 numbered sunspots (including AR2758). Three of them (75%) have been from Solar Cycle 25. This compares to only 17% in 2019 and 0% in 2018. Solar Cycle 25 is still weak, but it is coming.

As long as it stays weak!

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