Solar and Aurora Activity Chat

[jonboy]

Hathway seems confident that it will be the end of the year! Then again, he was confident a few months back. Me thinks it will be some time soooooooooon! http://nwstatic.co.uk/forum/public/style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/laugh.gif

The intresting thing here is the continued lack of activity. I was reading recently that the solar wind is at its weakest since measurement started in earnest 50 years ago and are 20-25% less than during the last solar minimum 10/15 years ago. Equally not only is the wind calmer its been measured 13% cooler. How all this lack of activity impacts on our climate is the really intresting topic in my view as this could be the start of the real cooling that some members talk about.

[Typhoon John]

Some spotless facts.

Today is the 485th spotless day of this minimum.

It's the 241st spotless day this year which puts 2008 joint third for years with the most spotless days.

2008 needs 14 more spotless days this month to make 2008 the 2nd most spotless year recorded, it looks certain to be at least 3rd.

The current streak is 16 spotless days.

2007 had 163 spotless days and is the 9th year with the most spotless days.

The number one most spotless year is 1913 with 311 spotless days, 1912 is the current number 2 with 253 days.

[mettalfabrik]

massive prominences happening solar wise today, http://www.spaceweather.com/

had few of these outbursts in the last few months ,there,s life in the old gal yet!

Edited December 6, 2008 by blackdown

[mettalfabrik]

new group of cycle24 sunspots observed,the first for some time

[Typhoon John]

Current spot is decaying but there may be another spot that's out of view at the moment. It will be interesting to see if this is the start of another burst of activity like we've seen in recent months or if it becomes quiet again. It's going to be close as to whether 2008 beats 1912 for spotless days, I think there needs to be another 7.

Edited December 12, 2008 by fozi999

[Guest Shetland Coastie]

Absolutely nothing again! Sun is blank and so is the far side.

Spaceweather

[mettalfabrik]

whoa coastie check todays (16\12\08 )http://www.spaceweather.com/

jeeeez!

[Guest Shetland Coastie]

whoa coastie check todays (16\12\08 )http://www.spaceweather.com/

jeeeez!

Nice CME! We should see shortly whether its been caused by a sunspot or something else. Also worth looking at is the story at the top of the page about the hole in the magnetosphere and how this may interact with the CME to produce some really active geomagnetic activity. Could be in for some really good aurorae shortly!

Edited December 17, 2008 by Shetland Coastie

[Typhoon John]

The recent CME wasn't big enough to affect the Earth. There still seems to be no sunspots, I'm not sure how many more spotless days we need to be the second most spotless year, can't be more than two or three. I'm sure if we pass the milestone the usual suspects will let us know.

[Guest Shetland Coastie]

The recent CME wasn't big enough to affect the Earth. There still seems to be no sunspots, I'm not sure how many more spotless days we need to be the second most spotless year, can't be more than two or three. I'm sure if we pass the milestone the usual suspects will let us know.

Indeed fozi. Spotless again today and nada on the holographic image of the farside either. But of course theres nothing unusual in that is there? LOL

[BARRY]

Some spotless facts.

Today is the 485th spotless day of this minimum.

It's the 241st spotless day this year which puts 2008 joint third for years with the most spotless days.

2008 needs 14 more spotless days this month to make 2008 the 2nd most spotless year recorded, it looks certain to be at least 3rd.

The current streak is 16 spotless days.

2007 had 163 spotless days and is the 9th year with the most spotless days.

The number one most spotless year is 1913 with 311 spotless days, 1912 is the current number 2 with 253 days.

how many spotless days is it now must be in 2nd place now

[Typhoon John]

I misinterpreted what I was reading about spotless years and it's not quite what I posted before. 2008 is now the 2nd most spotless since 1900 at least I think, someone may want to check that. I wrote it before as if it was the most spotless year ever but I suppose if I'd thought about it more then I'd have realised that couldn't be the case considering the Maunder. Although it should be said, when you start going further back gaps start to appear in the record so you have to consider what good such a comparison would be anyway.

The important bit to consider for me is that this is completely different behaviour to what we've experienced recently and regardless of the exact number of days I think it's notable that we've achieved so many spotless days this cycle and that the sun still appears to be very quiet. 2009 certainly promises to be interesting; if it's another quiet year then I would think cycle 24 will be very weak.

[mettalfabrik]

this is an interesting article purely in the lack of sunspots sense ,remember this is the solar thread, any climate change bods

who read this may get a tad agitated

http://icecap.us/images/uploads/FIRST_SUNS...ONTH_ICECAP.pdf

[shuggee]

Very interesting that Blackdown - sunspotless by 2015?!

Cheers

[BARRY]

Quality read that and easy to digest,it actually makes a lot of sense

[pottyprof]

Yes its a super read thanks for that blackdown..

[Beverley Lass]

Hi all,

I've spent 10 mins looking for the right place to put this ..

not sure I'm right now .. lol.

But just a reminder to folks interested that the

'Joanna Lumley In The Land Of The Northern Lights' prog. is listed

as being repeated tonight on BBC2 at 6.15pm.

I loved the lights show near the end in this .. awesome !

Cheers,

BL. http://nwstatic.co.uk/forum/public/style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/laugh.gif

[mettalfabrik]

Thanks BevLass very much related post. good prog too!

[Guest Shetland Coastie]

this is an interesting article purely in the lack of sunspots sense ,remember this is the solar thread, any climate change bods

who read this may get a tad agitated

http://icecap.us/images/uploads/FIRST_SUNS...ONTH_ICECAP.pdf

Interesting read that blackie, cheers!

[mettalfabrik]

thanks all,another good read here,from the excellent http://www.solarcycle24.com/

this a hathaway presentation from the cycle 24 conferance in napa

http://sprg.ssl.berkeley.edu/RHESSI/napa20...nI_Hathaway.pdf

cheers

bryan

Interesting read that blackie, cheers!

Edited December 31, 2008 by blackdown

[Mondy]

thanks all,another good read here,from the excellent http://www.solarcycle24.com/

Kevin, the site owner of SC24.com has done a great job over there. Come join the forums also. http://solarcycle24com.proboards106.com/index.cgi

Like minded people prevail there. Actually, I'm a mod over there, but it pretty much looks after itself as people are only interested in SC24 [and agw ]

[Mondy]

Here are the 3-month sunspot number averages since early 2007:

Jan 07 22.7

Feb 07 18.5

Mar 07 11.2

Apr 07 12.2

May 07 15.8

Jun 07 18.7

Jul 07 15.4

Aug 07 10.2

Sep 07 5.4

Oct 07 3.0

Nov 07 6.9

Dec 07 8.1

Jan 08 8.5

Feb 08 8.4

Mar 08 8.4

Apr 08 8.9

May 08 5.0

Jun 08 3.7

Jul 08 2.0

Aug 08 1.1

Sep 08 2.5

Oct 08 4.5

Nov 08 4.4

Makes pitiful reading and shows the probable very, very slow upturn to full SC24

[mettalfabrik]

from the latest report off http://spaceweatherradio.com/

according to the report there were 266 spotless days in 2008 ,next highest being 311 back in 1913

cheers

[Typhoon John]

Here are the 3-month sunspot number averages since early 2007:

Jan 07 22.7

Feb 07 18.5

Mar 07 11.2

Apr 07 12.2

May 07 15.8

Jun 07 18.7

Jul 07 15.4

Aug 07 10.2

Sep 07 5.4

Oct 07 3.0

Nov 07 6.9

Dec 07 8.1

Jan 08 8.5

Feb 08 8.4

Mar 08 8.4

Apr 08 8.9

May 08 5.0

Jun 08 3.7

Jul 08 2.0

Aug 08 1.1

Sep 08 2.5

Oct 08 4.5

Nov 08 4.4

Makes pitiful reading and shows the probable very, very slow upturn to full SC24

I wouldn't be surprised to see the sunspot number drop back down again. December is 1.5 I think and Jan could be similar so the longer this continues the further out the minimum will be because the earlier figures are quite high compared to now. On that basis I think the minimum could be November 08 or perhaps into early 2009.

The link below shows the spotless days this minimum in context with the cycles 10 to 23. It seems clear that this minimum is following a pattern observed during cycles 10-15. On that basis a minimum around now seems like a decent bet.

http://users.telenet.be/j.janssens/Spotless/Spotless.html

Edited January 3, 2009 by fozi999

[mettalfabrik]

another updated cycle 24 prediction from mr hathaway

http://solarscience.msfc.nasa.gov/predict.shtml

cheers then

bry