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My guess is 215 spotless days

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46 minutes ago, sundog said:

My guess is 215 spotless days

Hope you're right but it appears that the new solar cycle is beginning to stir and it would be unusual to have three consecutive years with so many spotless days. I hope we get to a hundred  spotless.....

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So what are people's thoughts on how the solar wind might effect our weather? Anyone know much about the Mansurov Effect, the dynamics are not understood properly but it seems that the IMF sweeps Earthward by the solar wind and this causes certain effects on the earths ionosphere. The link between these ionospheric changes and possible influences on our climate dynamics are unclear, although there has been some research that links to atmospheric pressure anomalies in the Troposphere above the Earths Poles.

So is there a likely response of the lower atmosphere to changes in the global atmospheric electric circuit associated with solar wind variability?

There are a few articles on the internet but nothing conclusive that I've found so far. I know there was some talk that some of the HAARP experiments could heat up the ionosphere and this could induce shifts in the jet stream but I'm not sure if this is fact or fiction.

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12 hours ago, karyo said:

No, the same one. I just saw it when spaceweather updated. I think the new cycle is starting to pick up as we had 2 other sunspots last week.

Yes, looks like the sun could be waking from its slumber.  The question is, will it be a slow increase like SC24 or more of a ramp up?

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39 minutes ago, Don said:

Yes, looks like the sun could be waking from its slumber.  The question is, will it be a slow increase like SC24 or more of a ramp up?

I think the next couple of months will give us the answer.

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my guess is 165 spotless days. I think the Deepest point of minimum  was last month Personally.

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thermosphere 25.9 billion watts

neutron count 9.6% high

kp index 1 quiet

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Recent sunspots came and went in a day or two which is characteristic of solar minimum. However, this one (2755) is still there 5 days on. 

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From Spaceweather:

COSMIC RAYS APPROACH THE SPACE AGE RECORD: This weekend, cosmic rays penetrating Earth's atmosphere came within a percentage point of the Space Age record. Because of Solar Minimum, the sun's magnetic field has been weakening, allowing extra cosmic rays into the Solar System. If current trends continue, a new record could be set in 2020. Watch the counts increase right here on Spaceweather.com.

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AURORA SURPRISE: No geomagnetic storm? No problem. On Jan. 4th, auroras filled the sky over Ringvassøya, Norway. "What a lovely surprise!" says Gunnar Hildonen, who photographed the outburst:

Gunnar-Hildonen-Northernlights_GuideGunnar-7502_1578182452_strip Aurora Surprise.jpg

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thermosphere 27.5 billion watts

neutron count 10.2% very high

kp index 3 quiet

solar flux 71

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thermosphere 28.2 billion watts

neutron count 9.2% very high

solar flux 71

kp index 4 unsettled

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While currents flowed through the ground, auroras filled the sky. Rayann Elzein photographed the corresponding outburst of lights from Utsjoki, Finland:

Rayann-Elzein-2001062145_RE5_5043_1578349506_strip Utsjoki Finland.jpg

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thermosphere 28.1 billion watts

neutron count 8.9% high

kp index 2 quiet

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1 day blank, 1 for 2020, 12%

Solar flux 72

Thermosphere: 2.81

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thermosphere 28.3 billion watts

neutron count 9.1% high

kp index 3 quiet

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Adjusted flux 71.2

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Another cycle 25 sunspot has appeared. I guess we reached the solar minimum sometime in the autumn 2019.

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Can someone please tell me if the 'neutron count' either has, or is thought to have, any implications for terrestrial weather?

TIA.:oldgood:

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3 hours ago, karyo said:

Another cycle 25 sunspot has appeared. I guess we reached the solar minimum sometime in the autumn 2019.

Too early to say, early last year people were saying similar before activity collapsed again.

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2 hours ago, General Cluster said:

Can someone please tell me if the 'neutron count' either has, or is thought to have, any implications for terrestrial weather?

TIA.:oldgood:

The cosmic ray influx (of which the Neutron count is a proxy) increases during solar minimum because the Sun's magnetic field influence on Earth weakens. These cosmic rays collide with particles in the atmosphere in disintegrate into muons and other sub-atomic particles. The gist of the idea is that these form cloud condensation nuclei which then increase cloudiness in the troposphere which in turn has a cooling effect.

It's all very speculative though (the increased cloud part, anyway) and there's not a lot of evidence for it as far as I can tell. 

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thermosphere 28.6 billion watts

neutron count 9.5% high

kp index 4 unsettled

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