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Solar and Aurora Activity Chat

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1 minute ago, JeffC said:

yes I think it's almost like with a SSW it's not an instant response, although I guess if the sun blew altogether we'd know about it about 8 minutes later. These changes are more subtle and take time to change the existing momentum within the system(s).

Yes we would soon know about it quicker than just low solar activity though as we would be cold very quickly even in summer, so wouldn't have to wait until 22nd November for a Greenland high to notice the effects like in 2010

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1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Yes we would soon know about it quicker than just low solar activity though as we would be cold very quickly even in summer, so wouldn't have to wait until 22nd November for a Greenland high to notice the effects like in 2010

I think a Greenland High would be the least of our worries!

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2 minutes ago, Yarmy said:

You can't know it until (at least) 6 months after it's happened because it is defined as the lowest value of the 13-month smoothed monthly SSN mean. Given the dearth of spots in the past couple of months, it's unlikely that we are quite there yet.

Looks like unfortunately then that the true year after solar min will co-incide with a w-qbo next year then so not great, although wouldn't be overly worried, think next winter could be the one - 20-21.

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32 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Do we actually know yet the actual point of solar min in this cycle?

This quarter to date (all of 5 weeks) is the most spotless so far so we are at or approaching.

Worth saying that if you look at spotless years then Dec-Jan especially is good for a cold winter even at this phase, simply because of how negative.

2018 was the 15th most spotless on record and we should beat that this year so comparable analogues for second year top 23 spotless years are..

1856

1901

1912

2008

The winter of 1913 was poor but the others good.

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2 days blank, 147 for 2019 67%

Solar flux 69

Thermosphere: 2.99

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On ‎08‎/‎08‎/‎2019 at 10:22, JeffC said:

do we know was it characteristic of SC 24 or SC 25 polarity wise?

 

I believe it was a cycle 24 spot

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AURORA FALLS: On August 5th, a fast-moving stream of solar wind hit Earth's magnetic field. Paul Zizka was at Wapta Falls in British Columbia when the sky overhead turned green:

 

Paul-Zizka-waptafbthis_1565314365_strip Aurora Falls.jpg

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11 hours ago, jonboy said:

I believe it was a cycle 24 spot

That's a good thing!

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3 days blank, 148 for 2019 67%

Solar flux 67

Thermosphere: 2.99

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4 days blank, 148 for 2019 67%

Solar flux 67

Thermosphere: 2.96

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ARCTIC AURORAS--THEY'RE BACK: Aurora season is beginning around the Arctic Circle. "The lights are back, you better believe it!" reports Thomas Kast from Oulu, Finland. "Here in Oulu the nights are barely dark enough, but this morning a ribbon of green aurora was in the sky for a few moments around 2am."

Thomas-Kast-20190810_0538-copy_1565397335_strip Arctic Auroras.jpg

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Does anybody know when we last had a quarter running at 90% spotless. Of the 40 days since July 1st, we have 36 spotless.

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3 hours ago, summer blizzard said:

Does anybody know when we last had a quarter running at 90% spotless. Of the 40 days since July 1st, we have 36 spotless.

I hope this will be of help.

 

http://users.telenet.be/j.janssens/Spotless/Spotless.html

 

http://sidc.be/silso/spotless

 

 

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5 days blank, 149 for 2019 675

Solar flux 68

Thermosphere: 3.00

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On ‎10‎/‎07‎/‎2019 at 07:30, SteveB said:

2 days blank, 120 for 2019 63%

Solar flux 68

adjusted flux = 69.2

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6 days blank, 150 for 2019 67%

Solar flux 67

Thermosphere: 3.00

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Posted (edited)

adjusted flux 68.4 so it has dropped a tad

Edited by JeffC
can't copy!

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7 days blank, 151 for 2019 67%

Solar flux 67

Thermosphere: 2.98

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adjusted flux = 68.5

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8 days blank, 152 for 2019 67%

Solar flux 67

Thermosphere: 2.98

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25 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

70 days to surpass last year's spotless total and there are 138 days left of this year.

 

Unless there's a sudden up tick in spots, we should easily surpass last year going on current conditions...

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Posted (edited)
24 minutes ago, SteveB said:

Unless there's a sudden up tick in spots, we should easily surpass last year going on current conditions...

Quite  infact  we could get quite close   to  2009        my guess is around 250 

Edited by weirpig

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43 minutes ago, SteveB said:

Unless there's a sudden up tick in spots, we should easily surpass last year going on current conditions...

The rate of the last 6 weeks would actually see us beat 2008 to 4th.

More likely we’ll drop off though and finish below 260.

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On 02/01/2019 at 17:33, drgl said:

If only today's spot had arrived a little earlier!! Not a bad guess 😄

 

I wonder what 2019 will bring?? I'm going for 260-280 spotless days days....

At current rates we'd be looking @ ~250. Time will tell 🙂

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