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Posted (edited)
5 hours ago, Gray-Wolf said:

Indeed!

But like the day after winter Solstice, you know that things are now heading up towards the next solstice?

Agreed but the next solstice is more easily predicted. We are still very much in the early stages of understanding the drivers of solar cycles in my opinion, and whilst there may be signs of SC 25 polarity change being underway, it doesn't predict the level of activity that will characterize the next SC.

It's not very unusual to have reverse polarity sunspots even well into a given SC, so this could be random or it could be an early harbinger of SC 25.

I'm not poo-pooing either way, but given the current activity I think there's a wee while yet before we can say for sure that we're into SC 25 territory proper, but I guess every day is a day nearer...

It will be interesting indeed to see what happens if SC 25 continues the decline in activity exhibited by SC 24.

Edited by JeffC

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Posted (edited)

5 days blank, 114 for 2019 62%

Solar flux 67

Edited by SteveB

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6 hours ago, Weather-history said:

At this stage in 2009: 142 days (77%)

What about 2008, I know we are beating last year.

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15 hours ago, Weather-history said:

At this stage in 2009: 142 days (77%)

Which makes me wonder if we have reached rock bottom yet and will see an early migration into SC25 or whether there is further to go in SC 24..

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6 days blank, 115 for 2019 62%

Solar flux 67

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Thermosphere Climate Index
today: 3.34x1010 W Cold

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7 hours ago, SteveB said:

6 days blank, 115 for 2019 62%

Solar flux 67

Every chance that in a few days we will pass July 31st 2018 total (120) so still tracking ahead.

Assuming we finish July with 130 and allowing for a 66% spotless rate through years end then we get 230 for the year, a second consecutive year inside the top 15 spotless years (top 10%).

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1 hour ago, summer blizzard said:

Every chance that in a few days we will pass July 31st 2018 total (120) so still tracking ahead.

Assuming we finish July with 130 and allowing for a 66% spotless rate through years end then we get 230 for the year, a second consecutive year inside the top 15 spotless years (top 10%).

Yep, we are going deep one feels.

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The TCI is almost as low now as it was last Christmas when it bottomed out as well. I think 3.16 was the lowest value then if I remember correctly. Not updated today yet. 

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6 hours ago, SteveB said:

Yep, we are going deep one feels.

The main question that is hard to answer is whether we are going deeper than last year or not.

The last solar cycle had the 20th, 3rd then 4th most spotless years.

This cycle has had the 15th but has not matched the percentages of the last cycle yet. 

Theres no way to tell whether 2018 was a deeper 2007 and 2019/2020 will rival the last cycle or whether we just have a deep but less remarkable cycle (a 66% rate would still give us the 9th-14th most spotless but there’s no way to hide the fact it would not have matched the last cycle).

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Aphelion occurred approx 20 minutes ago, so we are now moving closer to the Sun. As such, the observed flux will start to increase. If you’re interested in comparing solar flux over the course of a year you should use the adjusted flux. 

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6 hours ago, Yarmy said:

Aphelion occurred approx 20 minutes ago, so we are now moving closer to the Sun. As such, the observed flux will start to increase. If you’re interested in comparing solar flux over the course of a year you should use the adjusted flux. 

I thought we were using adjusted flux figures?

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1 hour ago, JeffC said:

I thought we were using adjusted flux figures?

I think most are getting the number from this widget which is displayed on Solarham (via hamqsl.com), or the number displayed on Spaceweather:

solarpic.php

They are both showing the observed flux. It's not wrong per se, it's just that the equivalent observed flux in early January with the same output from the Sun would be 72 or so (because Earth is that much closer). The adjusted flux can be found here (2nd column from the right; observed is 3rd from the right):

http://www.solarham.net/solarflux.htm

For both observed and adjusted, the number is the average of the 3 readings from the previous day. So for the observed on the 4th, that is (68.1+67.6+67.3)/3 =67.7 (to 1 d.p.) and for the adjusted it is (70.4+69.9+69.6)/3 = 70.0 (to 1 d.p.).

 

 

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Posted (edited)

Thermosphere Climate Index

04 July 2019: 3.294x1010 W Cold

 

 

Edited by Katrine Basso
Adding date

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The latest update from http://www.spaceweather.com/

Sunspot number: 0

Spotless Days
Current Stretch: 7 days
2019 total: 116 days (62%)

Thermosphere Climate Index
Today: 3.28x1010 W Cold

The Radio Sun
10.7 cm flux: 68 sfu

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8 days blank, 117 for 2019 63%

Solar flux 67

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9 days blank, 118 for 2019 63%

Solar flux 67

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Posted (edited)
2 hours ago, Gray-Wolf said:

Another Cycle 25 spot arrives, that's 2 in just a week!

 

http://www.spaceweather.com/

GW..

Its the first 'official' sunspot of the  new cycle. Solar Cycle 24 is still in command and its minimum is expected to last for another year.

The butterfly diagrams are still the ones to follow.

 

MIA

Edited by Midlands Ice Age

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We'll see what we'll see m.i.a.?

I'm not calling the shots here , the Sun is, I'm merely looking at what I see ( and after the last 2 cycles I'd say we can all have a punt?)

But then opinions are like 'A' Holes?

Everybody has one but it doesn't do to examine too many?

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1 day blank, 119 for 2019 63%

Solar flux 67

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2 days blank, 120 for 2019 63%

Solar flux 68

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