Solar and Aurora Activity Chat

[Roger J Smith]

Anti-mild, there are reconstructions of solar variations going back well before the Maunder minimum. These are based on secondary evidence like auroral observations and variations of carbon 12 and 13 residues in dating samples.

What these show can be summarized as follows, I will go backwards from the Maunder since you were asking about that specifically.

The sun was in a weaker than usual but regular mode in the first half of the 17th century before the Maunder. There were several peaks at ten year intervals roughly, similar to the moderate peaks of 1893 and 1905.

There was some fairly robust activity in the 16th century, not that different from the 18th.

Before that came another long quiet period in the 15th century known as the Sporer minimum (umlaut on the o, I don't have time to look for it). That didn't seem to be as big a shutdown as the Maunder, but bigger than the Dalton.

The 14th century had some very strong activity, 1372 is listed by Schove as the only other "SSS" peak besides 1957. There were a number of strong peaks in a row all dated to years ending in 1 or 2.

Before that, I would have to look it up and my memory says, about the same mixture of weak moderate and strong periods at irregular intervals, all the way back to the earliest years for which Schove could find precise dating records of aurorae. Beyond that, we have more general and vague suggestions from geological traces that solar activity has varied a lot in the past.

[Mondy]

I asked before but didn't (to my knowledge) get a reply so here goes again. Will the start of the new cycle proper (predominance of C24 spots) be a slow growth in numbers or do the numbers tend to jump up quite quickly?

Well, three C24 "spots" in 2 weeks, instead of none for months lets you into a story. I did actually post somewhere on here that once SC24 begins properly the sunspots come fast. It's still teetering about at the mo!

[Gray-Wolf]

Cheers Col!

I looked at the 'plots' from other cycles and they do seem to pick up in numbers quite rapidly once things are underway. I take it once we're into the ascendant with spot numbers they'll adjust the forcast for C24(again).

[LadyPakal]

Anyone know where to find the definitive data on which spot belongs to which cycle?

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Cheers Col!

I looked at the 'plots' from other cycles and they do seem to pick up in numbers quite rapidly once things are underway. I take it once we're into the ascendant with spot numbers they'll adjust the forcast for C24(again).

Will they change it from a incredibly active to much weaker? I have faith in the astrophysiciists who have called for weakening cycles [true minima] and NASA's latest findings re magnetic field. Sunspots coming thick and fast after a cycle gets underway isn't a given its all relative, especially if true minima is being entered into.

Spaceweather.com is a very good sight IMO and 1003 is the current SC24 sunspot

BFTP

Edited October 5, 2008 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[Guest Shetland Coastie]

Sunspot 1003 is already struggling to keep it together and is fading. All these cycle 24 spots so far have been weak, feeble affairs with no aparrent stamina, a sign of things to come perhaps?

[BARRY]

for such a weak sunspot it's quite high up in the southern hemisphere as well

[LadyPakal]

well ladypakal this is what they try to do,as there are various sunspot numbers counts,the older visual methods are still used to provide a continum from past centuries so that this data sits alongsode the more modern methods

http://sidc.oma.be/news/106/welcome.html

Thanks - good to know.

[mettalfabrik]

according to http://www.solarcycle24.com/ 1003 has indeed all but gone,but there may be another on the farside

[Mondy]

Appears Hathaway changed the NASA Sunspot prediction for Solar Cycle 24 by extending it 2 months but not changing the sunspot number for the solar maximum. The updated animation can be found here:

http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/Image:SSN_Predict_NASA.gif

The latest NASA prediction in a GIF and text file format can be found here.

http://solarscience.msfc.nasa.gov/images/ssn_predict_l.gif

http://solarscience.msfc.nasa.gov/images/ssn_predict.txt

Courtesy SC24 forum

[Crepuscular Ray]

according to http://www.solarcycle24.com/ 1003 has indeed all but gone,but there may be another on the farside

Gone, indeed, except on the Soho magnetogram. More like a Cheshire cat than a sunspot.

[mettalfabrik]

looks like there has been some CME activity coupled with the activity on t,other side

cactus cme detection pic from yesterday 06\10\08

Edited October 7, 2008 by blackdown

[Guest Shetland Coastie]

Yet again no sunspots. The holographic image shows none on the far side either.

Spaceweather

Edited October 7, 2008 by Shetland Coastie

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Yet again no sunspots. The holographic image shows none on the far side either.

Spaceweather

Hathaway, when will he give up the ghost?

BFTP

[Roger J Smith]

Hello sunwatchers, I have finally managed to get my ass in gear and open up a website to discuss my research. Bookmark it and visit some time, but come back in about a month because I will have more material posted on solar-weather connections by then.

http://www.futureweatherinc.com

[Mondy]

Something lurking northern hemisphere, eastern flank..

Stereo Behind: http://stereo-ssc.nascom.nasa.gov/browse/2008/10/09/

[BARRY]

what ever it was has gone

[Mondy]

Barry, that's the current image of the Sun..the image I posted is called "Stereo Behind"..it shows what's happening on the other side of the Sun, so if this area remains, you'll see in a few days the same spot in the face of the Sun.

Play about with the link posted under the Behind image and you'll see something different ;-)

[Crepuscular Ray]

what ever it was has gone

Not really - Delta Xray's image was from Stereo B - which is in a position where it can see farther round that limb of the Sun. Soho won't pick that area up for a few days.

Reason for edit: DXR got there first!

Edited October 9, 2008 by crepuscular ray

[LadyPakal]

New sunspot maybe?

http://wattsupwiththat.com/2008/10/09/spec...to-be-cycle-23/

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Signs of a record breaking solar maxima to come!

http://www.spaceweather.com/

BFTP

[LadyPakal]

Hmm... what to believe, sun is blank or sun spot number=12?

I do see something here - top left seems to have a small cluster of something:

http://sohowww.nascom.nasa.gov/data/realti...024/latest.html

[Crepuscular Ray]

Hmm... what to believe, sun is blank or sun spot number=12?

I do see something here - top left seems to have a small cluster of something:

http://sohowww.nascom.nasa.gov/data/realti...024/latest.html

Yuo're right about the two little spots Lady Pakal - and I think they're cycle 24 at that latitude. This is in addition to the active area that Stereo B spotted.

spaceweather.com's not been updated yet today so the 0 is yesterday's number - also these spots have emerged quite rapidly.

CR

[LadyPakal]

Yes, it seems to be just the two spots now but it looked more like 4 earlier when I posted. Maybe none in a few more hours, based on the lifespans of sunspots recently.

This observatory also saw 4 - see the drawing at the bottom.

http://sidc.oma.be/uset/index.php

An embarrassment of sunspots...

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Yes, it seems to be just the two spots now but it looked more like 4 earlier when I posted. Maybe none in a few more hours, based on the lifespans of sunspots recently.

This observatory also saw 4 - see the drawing at the bottom.

http://sidc.oma.be/uset/index.php

An embarrassment of sunspots...

Sunspot 1004 of SC24...........but indeed for how long?

BFTP