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4 day's blank, 66 for 2019 575

Solar flux 69

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Sunspot number: 0

Current Stretch: 5 days
2019 total: 67 days (58%)

The Radio Sun
10.7 cm flux: 68 s.f.u

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6 day's blank, 67 for 2019 

Solar flux 68

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AURORAS VS.TWILIGHT: Last night in Alaska, auroras battled twilight for visibility in the brightening summer sky. Who won? Sacha Layos captured the results over Fairbanks:

 

corona_fairbanks_strip Auroas versues the Twilight.jpg

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Posted (edited)

It is beginning to appear that we are at a crossroads, here on NetW, and the next 6 months will show whether we are to follow those baying for another extended min and those who see min now passing?

By Late Oct we should have a good idea as to whether cycle 25 spots are now growing , and descending in the solar midriff ( whilst radio sun no.s begin to rise?) or still falling away into solar min?

I am of the opinion that this is 'bottom' and ,now, the only way is up?

Edited by Gray-Wolf

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36 minutes ago, Gray-Wolf said:

It is beginning to appear that we are at a crossroads, here on NetW, and the next 6 months will show whether we are to follow those baying for another extended min and those who see min now passing?

By Late Oct we should have a good idea as to whether cycle 25 spots are now growing , and descending in the solar midriff ( whilst radio sun no.s begin to rise?) or still falling away into solar min?

I am of the opinion that this is 'bottom' and ,now, the only way is up?

Why do you believe we are at solar minimum now?

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8 day's blank, 70 for 2019 59%

Solar flux 68

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9 day's blank, 71 for 2019 59%

Solar flux 67

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Sunspot number: 0

Current Stretch: 10 days
2019 total: 72 days (60%)

The Radio Sun
10.7 cm flux: 67 s.f.u 

 

I do not know if the total stretch of sun spotless days is an error or if the amount has has been re-adjusted.

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With Kp4 last night sightings spotted up North.

Screenshot_20190502-063954.thumb.jpg.d7bbfefe4eacc97850f7cb61f6f22891.jpg

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Sunspot number: 0

Current Stretch: 11 days
2019 total: 73 days (60%)

The Radio Sun
10.7 cm flux: 68 s.f.u  

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Sunspot number: 0

Current Stretch: 12 days
2019 total: 74 days (60%)

The Radio Sun
10.7 cm flux: 69 s.f.u   

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AR2740 is back for a second turn! Isn't it a bit odd to have such a big spot during min and so long lasting???

I take it its a cycle 24 spot?

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14 hours ago, Gray-Wolf said:

AR2740 is back for a second turn! Isn't it a bit odd to have such a big spot during min and so long lasting???

I take it its a cycle 24 spot?

I'm not sure about length but this happened around the last solar minimum as well

17th December 2009

midi512_blank.gif?PHPSESSID=beg9801q1dd9

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16 hours ago, Gray-Wolf said:

AR2740 is back for a second turn! Isn't it a bit odd to have such a big spot during min and so long lasting???

I take it its a cycle 24 spot?

And today we have the appearance of a second big sunspot.

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Posted (edited)
17 hours ago, Gray-Wolf said:

AR2740 is back for a second turn! Isn't it a bit odd to have such a big spot during min and so long lasting???

I take it its a cycle 24 spot?

Yes, as is the new one rotating on to the east limb. Both are low lat with SC24 polarity.

Not sure about longevity during min, but the big one of the 20th Century was in 1947 during SC18. Not only was it the largest, it lasted 4 transits between Feb and May. On average, less than 10% groups make it beyond 11 days (according to the SWS in Australia):

http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/Educational/2/2/2

spot_lifetime_01.gif

I assume this relationship applies during max and min, it's just that there are so few groups during min that it's rare to see long-lasting ones.

 

Edited by Yarmy

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For those expecting us to dip to the low levels of last solar min this year are you revising your thinking yet?

To get down to the 71% and 73% blank we saw then is going to take some doing esp. now we have begun seeing cycle 25 spots emerging at the poles?

I can understand a wish for a quieter sun to spare our modern technologies from possible solar storm damage but that would be 'wishing' for low max's would it not and not long, low, min's?

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1 hour ago, Gray-Wolf said:

For those expecting us to dip to the low levels of last solar min this year are you revising your thinking yet?

To get down to the 71% and 73% blank we saw then is going to take some doing esp. now we have begun seeing cycle 25 spots emerging at the poles?

I can understand a wish for a quieter sun to spare our modern technologies from possible solar storm damage but that would be 'wishing' for low max's would it not and not long, low, min's?

No, because we are not at solar minimum yet!!! not until end of this year into 2020 will we see minimum levels. these sunspots are from current cycle 24!! how many times!!!!

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I will not be surprised if by Sept we see sub 50% 'blank' days and solar flux in the high 80's hinting that we are currently in the deepest part of the min right now?

But we'll park this until late Sept and see how my thinking has fared then?

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1 hour ago, Gray-Wolf said:

For those expecting us to dip to the low levels of last solar min this year are you revising your thinking yet?

To get down to the 71% and 73% blank we saw then is going to take some doing esp. now we have begun seeing cycle 25 spots emerging at the poles?

I can understand a wish for a quieter sun to spare our modern technologies from possible solar storm damage but that would be 'wishing' for low max's would it not and not long, low, min's?

I'd imagine that human technology is the only part of the biosphere that's at any risk of any long-term damage from Solar Cycles: after all, the rest of terrestrial life has had the best part of 4billion Ma, in which to evolve its complex web of interwoven feedback mechanisms. It's us humans that are the weakest link...

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Isle of Skye a short while ago.

Screenshot_20190511-021128.thumb.jpg.5b6155e9bec8abd18ad635b6a420a298.jpg

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Kp 5 storm forecast tonight..

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RARE BLUE AURORAS OVER CANADA: Northern Lights are usually green, sometimes red. Those are the colors we see when oxygen is hit by electrons raining down from space during a geomagnetic storm. On Friday night, however, Harlan Thomas of Calgary, Alberta, witnessed a different colour: deep-blue.

blue_strip Rare Blue Auroras over Canada.jpg

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