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Two sunspots and the solar flux has jumped to 80!

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Posted (edited)
3 hours ago, karyo said:

Two sunspots and the solar flux has jumped to 80!

Oh dear.  Let’s hope it’s short lived.

Edited by Don

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7 hours ago, Don said:

Oh dear.  Let’s hope it’s short lived.

Why?

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2 hours ago, Crepuscular Ray said:

Why?

Because it's a potential indicator that we have passed solar minimum for SC 24 I guess

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12 hours ago, JeffC said:

Because it's a potential indicator that we have passed solar minimum for SC 24 I guess

Correct

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1 day blank, 54 for 2019 64%

Solar flux 71

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On 22/03/2019 at 23:22, JeffC said:

Because it's a potential indicator that we have passed solar minimum for SC 24 I guess

Well, the theory that solar minimum presages lots of snow seems to have been disproved this time round.

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2 hours ago, Crepuscular Ray said:

Well, the theory that solar minimum presages lots of snow seems to have been disproved this time round.

How lol?

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Posted (edited)

THE AFTERGLOW OF A CME: A coronal mass ejection (CME) hit Earth's magnetic field on March 24th. The impact was weak and did not spark a geomagnetic storm. It did, however, cause these auroras. Tour guide Marianne Bergli of Tromsø, Norway, photographed the colorful lights on March 25th as Earth was passing through the CME's gaseous wake. "It was quite a show!" she says:

afterglow_strip aurora.jpg

Edited by Katrine Basso
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2 day's blank, 55 for 2019 64%

Solar flux 69

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11 hours ago, Crepuscular Ray said:

Well, the theory that solar minimum presages lots of snow seems to have been disproved this time round.

Not necessarily 2009 & 2010 were immediately after solar min from SC23...

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3 day's blank, 56 for 2019 64%

Solar flux 69

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It's great news to hear that the solar flux index has lowered.  I hope that the solar flux index will go down to the mid 60's.

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4 day's blank, 57 for 2019 65%

Solar flux 68

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5 day's blank, 58 for 2019 65%

Solar flux 69

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On 28/03/2019 at 15:32, Katrine Basso said:

It's great news to hear that the solar flux index has lowered.  I hope that the solar flux index will go down to the mid 60's.

That's most likely as we get towards midsummer, could be an indicator as to where we go next activity wise.

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Posted (edited)

They counted yesterday as blank, so 59 for 2019 65%

But a spot has formed, but I can't see one?

Edited by SteveB

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DEEP-SKY AURORAS IN THE USA: Yesterday, March 31st, a co-rotating interaction region (CIR) hit Earth's magnetic field. CIRs are like miniature CMEs. They contain shock waves and magnetic fields that often spark auroras. In this case, however, the impact was weak and the resulting auroras were barely visible to the unaided eye. Fortunately, Kevin Palmer of Lake DeSmet, Wyoming, had a camera:

wyoming_strip deep sky auroras.jpg

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Some nice shots over the web with Aurora showing up North last night.

Screenshot_20190404-085556.thumb.jpg.ab9b34c5a084980b2620cdf08f9fca06.jpg

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THE SOLAR WIND HAS ARRIVED: Earth is entering a stream of solar wind flowing from a southern hole in the sun's atmosphere. The gaseous material, flowing faster than 450 km/s, is sparking auroras around the Arctic Circle. John David McKinnon photographed this display from Slave River in the Northwest Territories of Canada:

snakeriver_strip The Solar Wind Has Arrived.jpg

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2 day's blank, 61 for 2019 63%

Solar flux 72

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STRANGE LIGHTS OVER NORWAY AND SWEDEN: Last night (April 5th) in Norway, researchers at the Andøya Space Center launched two sounding rockets into a minor geomagnetic storm. The results were out of this world. Aurora tour guide Kim Hartviksen photographed the display:

 

rocketauroras_strip strange lights over Norway.jpg

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Posted (edited)

SOLAR CYCLE 25 PRELIMINARY FORECAST

Screenshot_20190406-125928.thumb.jpg.98656b5d9df9780f3a250774f5eb46a6.jpg

published: Friday, April 05, 2019 19:45 UTC

The NOAA/NASA co-chaired international panel to forecast Solar Cycle 25 released a preliminary forecast for Solar Cycle 25 on April 5, 2019. The consensus: Cycle 25 will be similar in size to cycle 24.  It is expected that sunspot maximum will occur no earlier than the year 2023 and no later than 2026 with a minimum peak sunspot number of 95 and a maximum of 130.  In addition, the panel expects the end of Cycle 24 and start of Cycle 25 to occur no earlier than July, 2019, and no later than September, 2020.  The panel hopes to release a final, detailed forecast for Cycle 25 by the end of 2019.  Please read the official NOAA press release describing the international panel's forecast at https://www.weather.gov/news/190504-sun-activity-in-solar-cycle

Edited by Polar Maritime
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I think there are some that won't like this from that report PM;

“The expectation that Cycle 25 will be comparable in size to Cycle 24   means that the steady decline in solar cycle amplitude, seen from cycles 21-24, has come to an end and that there is no indication that we are currently approaching a Maunder-type minimum in solar activity.”

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18 hours ago, Gray-Wolf said:

I think there are some that won't like this from that report PM;

“The expectation that Cycle 25 will be comparable in size to Cycle 24   means that the steady decline in solar cycle amplitude, seen from cycles 21-24, has come to an end and that there is no indication that we are currently approaching a Maunder-type minimum in solar activity.”

Aye but it's a forecast, depends on how accurate that is! Lots of times I've not taken a jacket and got wet due to unforecast rain.... 🤞🏻

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