Jump to content
Holidays
Local
Radar
Snow?
shuggee

Solar and Aurora Activity Chat

Recommended Posts

24 day's blank, 38 for 2019 69%

Solar flux 71

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

25 day's blank, 39 for 2019 70%

Solar flux 71

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

February 25th:

Thermosphere climate index: 39.5 billion watts.

Kp index=1=quiet.

G1 class flare expected 27th February.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

26 day's blank, 40 day's for 2019 70%

Solar flux 71

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
21 hours ago, Yarmy said:

Jan Janssens has updated his personal solar tracking site with the latest data:

http://users.telenet.be/j.janssens/SC24web/SC24.html

SC2425minimum.png

Janssens is the solar physicist at STCE who maintains the SILSO spotless days page:

http://sidc.oma.be/silso/spotless

 

 

Almost confirmed then. If we do not see a reversal in the next six months then it is likely we are tracking the last solar cycle (at a potentially deeper level as things stand) as opposed to seeing a quick flip. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Sunspot number: 0 

Spotless Days
Current Stretch: 27 days
2019 total: 41 days (71%)

The Radio Sun
10.7 cm flux: 71 sfu

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

28 day's blank, 43 for 2019 73%

Solar flux 71

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

A Month without sun spots and we got record breaking heat! 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Total sunspotless days to date is 42 not 43, 14 sunspotless days in January, 28 in February, do the maths.

Amazing, a whole month without a sunspot, can we beat last years 32 day stretch?

G1 solar flares today, auroras possible, wind speed on sun to reach 1 million mph.

27th Feb: Thermosphere climate index: 37.8 billion watts, a marked drop from previously.

Kp index for 24hrs=5=storm.

Edited by Minus 10

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, Minus 10 said:

Total sunspotless days to date is 42 not 43, 14 sunspotless days in January, 28 in February, do the maths.

Amazing, a whole month without a sunspot, can we beat last years 32 day stretch?

G1 solar flares today, auroras possible, wind speed on sun to reach 1 million mph.

27th Feb: Thermosphere climate index: 37.8 billion watts, a marked drop from previously.

Kp index for 24hrs=5=storm.

I think Spaceweather has an off-by-one error, as it reported 1 spotless day for 2019 early on Jan 1st before the day had barely started.

The International Sunspot Number is the "official" count and that had a (very small and short-lived) sunspot on the 13th Feb. The NOAA Boulder count has about 20-30 more spotless days overall since SC24 max.

The transition from SC22 to SC23 had a 42 day stretch from Sep to Oct 1996 and that was during a short minimum between 2 active cycles.

But anyway, there's not much point in getting hung up on spotless streaks or counts: it's better to follow the smoothed SSN. The SSN is homogenised so that we can reasonably compare cycles today - when there are many observers - with periods in the past when there were far fewer. The spotless count isn't homogenised so direct comparisons make less sense. 

SC2425minimum.png?v=1

The green line is a 12-month centred smoothed mean, which means that the last value plotted is for 6 months before the end of January (when the above chart was updated last). The SSN mean for February will be effectively zero, so the green line will continue to drop. How far though and for how long?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

29 day's blank, 44 for 2019 73%

Solar flux 71

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

February 28th:

Thermosphere climate index: 38.2 billion watts.

Kp index=5=storm.

G1 minor storm, 24-48hrs

Arctic auroras possible..

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 28/02/2019 at 08:05, karyo said:

A Month without sun spots and we got record breaking heat! 

 

Indeed.  We will just have to see what the next couple of years bring.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

If past cycles mean anything I would hope the next 2-3 winters see something cooler. If they end up like this year then it looks like any link to low sun spot activity and colder winters is toast 😞 Time will tell....

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, drgl said:

If past cycles mean anything I would hope the next 2-3 winters see something cooler. If they end up like this year then it looks like any link to low sun spot activity and colder winters is toast 😞 Time will tell....

I've often thought over the last few yrs that the winters of the early 2020s could be very interesting if there is a link . We will just have to see what happens. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

GEOMAGNETIC STORMS, TODAY: Minor G1-class geomagnetic storms are underway on Mar. 1st as a fast-moving stream of solar wind buffets Earth's magnetic field. The gaseous material is flowing from a wide hole in the sun's atmosphere--so wide that Earth could remain inside the stream for another 24 to 48 hours. First contact with the stream on Feb. 28th caused an explosion of light over Rovaniemi, Finland:

Jani-Ylinampa_strip ~Geomagnetic storms auroras ~.jpg

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

30 day's blank, 45 for 2019 74%

Solar flux 70 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 01/03/2019 at 11:57, drgl said:

If past cycles mean anything I would hope the next 2-3 winters see something cooler. If they end up like this year then it looks like any link to low sun spot activity and colder winters is toast 😞 Time will tell....

The link to top 20 spotless winters is not in doubt, but probablity is not a guarantee. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Agreed S.B.!

I have had to take on board the findings of the study that 'flipped' what the MetO told us over last solar min ( after 09/10 winter?) so have to accept that low solar and 'cold' are not a nailed on outcome?

If the energy levels in our climate system have increased these past few cycles then the conditions that 'used' to lead to the apparent relationship in 'low solar/cold winters' may no longer exist?

If it means the High pressure dominance over low solar now places the highs so as to feed us warmth all winter then low solar could be morphed in 'Bartlett central' when it comes around?

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)
16 minutes ago, Gray-Wolf said:

Agreed S.B.!

I have had to take on board the findings of the study that 'flipped' what the MetO told us over last solar min ( after 09/10 winter?) so have to accept that low solar and 'cold' are not a nailed on outcome?

 

 

What study is this and what did the MetOffice say during the last solar minimum?

Edited by Don

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)
On 28/02/2019 at 08:05, karyo said:

A Month without sun spots and we got record breaking heat! 

 

Hottest summer on record, 1976, occurred around solar minimum.

So did the summer of 1933 which was a hot one. 

1834, where we were just coming out of a solar minimum was a very warm year whilst the maximum of that same cycle was around when the UK was having the coldest spring on record. 

Winters 1946-47 and 1978-79 occurred just before solar maximum 

Edited by Weather-history

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

31 day's blank, 46 for 2019 74%

Solar flux 69 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

ZODIACAL LIGHTS: Tonight, when the sun does down and the glow of sunset fades away, another glow will take its place--the Zodiacal Lights.  They stretch upward from the western horizon forming a pale luminous triangle visible from places with exceptionally dark skies. Ruslan Merzlyakov photographed them on Feb. 23rd from Hjørring, Denmark:

 

zodiacallight_strip Zodiac Lights Aurora.jpg

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...