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5 day's blank, 19 day's for 2019 53%

Solar flux 71

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6 day's blank, 20 for 2019 54%

Solar flux 71

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On 04/02/2019 at 20:15, Don said:

So, perhaps this current minimum won't aid us too much to get colder winters in the next few years, then?

I think we will get cold periods during future winters, what ive learned with low minima sun, is weather patterns can get stuck in a rut due to amplification of the jetstream, instead of our normal westbto east jet flow, the jetstream meanders around like its no particular place to go. I do believe there is a lag effect too, so i would expect winter 2019/2020 to be particularly severe. As for spring and summer...roll the dice, either droughts, or floods or maybe both.

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On 04/02/2019 at 23:26, Rambo said:

So with winter written off already, we're writing off a solar cycle before its even started? Steady on chaps lol

Its not that the solar cycle is written off, some researchers are of the belief that the grand minima doesnt begin until 2030, which is solar cycle 26. The beauty of it is, we are alive to witness this phenomena, exciting times...

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February 6th:

Thermosphere climate index: 38.7 billion watts.

Kp index=3=quiet.

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PURPLE AURORA SURPRISE: On Feb. 4th, Earth was exiting a stream of solar wind. Geomagnetic activity was subsiding, and strong auroras were not expected. Tour guide Marianne Bergli of Kvaløya, Norway, decided to go outside anyway. And this happened:

purplecorona_strip Purple Aurora Suprise in Norway.jpg

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7 day's blank, 21 for 2019 55%

Solar flux 70

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I see 55% of spotless days for the year so far. This is still lower than last year's which shows the impact of the increased activity we had over January. 

Fingers crossed the percentage continues to increase. 

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SPEAKING OF PINK AURORAS: Last night, Feb. 6th, a minor crack opened in Earth's magnetic field. Solar wind poured in to fuel an outburst of green and pink auroras. Oliver Wright of Lights over Lapland was guiding a group of tourists through Abisko National Park in Sweden when he photographed the display:

 

nitrogenfringe_stripGreen and Pink Auroras.jpg

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February 7th:

Thermosphere climate index: 38.8 billion watts.

Kp index=2=quiet.

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Spaceweather.com and Solarham.net are still showing yesterday's sun spot count.

Here is an update from http://sidc.oma.be/silso/home

04 February : 0

05 February : 0

06 February : 0

07 February : 0

08 February : 0

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http://www.solarham.net/

The Sun Today : Updated February 9, 2019  12:29 GMT

The Solar Terrestrial Data

Sun spot number: 0

Solar Flare Index: 71

 

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9 Day's blank, 23 for 2019 58%

Solar flux 70 

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I personally do not buy the idea of this solar cycle being more active than the last. It would be unusual to see such a deep solar cycle as the last followed by a dud then deep again.

We are still ahead of the last cycle at this stage, i would quit worrying.

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10 day's blank, 24 for 2019, 59%

Solar flux 70

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10th February:

Thermosphere climate index: 38.4 billion watts.

Kp index=3=quiet.

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11 day's blank, 25 for 2019 60%

Solar flux 70

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On 09/02/2019 at 22:47, summer blizzard said:

I personally do not buy the idea of this solar cycle being more active than the last. It would be unusual to see such a deep solar cycle as the last followed by a dud then deep again.

We are still ahead of the last cycle at this stage, i would quit worrying.

It is still a bit early to reach a conclusion. The people who think 25 will be stronger than 24 are expecting to see a rise in solar activity very soon. We will have a better idea where 25 is headed in the next few months. If it continues to flatline for a few more months then it becomes more and more likely that 25 will be a continuation of the weakening solar cycles.

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2 hours ago, Snowy L said:

It is still a bit early to reach a conclusion. The people who think 25 will be stronger than 24 are expecting to see a rise in solar activity very soon. We will have a better idea where 25 is headed in the next few months. If it continues to flatline for a few more months then it becomes more and more likely that 25 will be a continuation of the weakening solar cycles.

If you take a quarterly look at things then i believe Q4 was still deeper than Q3 and even this quarter to date we have seen persistent rather than numerous annoyances.

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12 day's blank, 26 for 2019, 60%

Solar flux 70

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On 04/02/2019 at 20:15, Don said:

So, perhaps this current minimum won't aid us too much to get colder winters in the next few years, then?

If I remember the research correctly, I think there may actually be more of a correlation between the descending part of the solar cycle and +NAO periods (bringing a higher chance of milder UK winters) rather than solar minimum reliably bringing -NAO and colder weather, although this has happened at minimum in several of the last few cycles such as 2010, winter 1995/96.  So we could think of the period leading up to the cold spell in late Feb / early March 2018 as the milder period associated with the descending cycle and we're now moving out of this into minimum bringing a greater chance of -NAO and therefore potential colder UK synoptics - similar to the milder winters in the descending cycle leading up to the cold spells starting in Feb 2009 last time around.  Worth looking at where Dec 2010 and March 2013 sit on the charts Yarmy posted above, which are more in line with the ascending or even max phases of the cycle.  You could even argue that last winter's late cold easterly is more towards the end of the descending phase of the cycle and we're now where we were around the end of 2008 or early 2009.  If this is the case, there's still more of a chance of colder winter periods over the next few years than we would have seen in the descending period from 2014 to 2018.

If I remember correctly I think there were also some -NAO winters associated with solar max periods although we've had more +NAO in recent maxima.  Obviously there's also the much colder periods associated with long minima in the past such as the Maunder and Dalton periods, but in terms of variation within individual cycles we're not completely reliant on flatlining to bring colder weather.  e.g. early 1979 was the ascending part of cycle 21 and Dec 1981 was around or just after solar max. 

Frustratingly I don't have the papers to hand so hopefully someone will correct me if I've misremembered though.

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February 12th

Thermosphere climate index: 38.6 billion watts.

Kp index=3=quiet.

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13 day's blank, 27 for 2019 61%

Solar flux 70

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New sunspot in the SH just off the western limb:

20190213_061500_512_HMIBC.jpg

 

Reversed polarity, but low-ish latitude so maybe an SC25 spot or maybe not. (About 1 in 30 of all sunspot groups exhibit reversed polarity).

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