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Solar and Aurora Activity Chat

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20 hours ago, BornFromTheVoid said:

Just be aware, she has no qualifications or publications related to climate, and the GWPF is a climate change denial group who have got her onboard and highlighted particular slides and hidden others, to promote their agenda.
Not trying to start anything, it's just better to be informed of this stuff than uninformed. There are plenty of researchers out there that specialise in Earth-Sun connections, but Zharkova is not one of them, and the GWPF is not a respectable nor scientific group.

I've watched it in full now. It's a little difficult to follow because of Zharkova's, um, exotic oscillating accent. However, if you filter out all the climate stuff (presumably in there for the audience) and the demonstrably false claim that she and her colleagues were the only ones to predict the last solar maximum, then there is some genuine science in there. It's much clearer here:

https://www.nature.com/articles/srep15689

So it's an application of PCA to the observed solar magnetic field since 1979 which is then extrapolated backwards and forwards to hindcast and forecast solar activity over 1000s of years. There isn't a single mention of climate.

I've got no idea whether there's any merit to it, but it's a good theory in the sense that we won't have to wait long to see if it fails.

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Spotless run will likely come to end tomorrow, as a new spot has appeared in the NH. It's high latitude and has reversed polarity, so it's likely an SC25 spot too.

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22 day's blank, 188 for 2018, 60%

Solar flux 70

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The solar flux is creeping up a bit but at least we are still spotless.

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21 hours ago, Yarmy said:

Spotless run will likely come to end tomorrow, as a new spot has appeared in the NH. It's high latitude and has reversed polarity, so it's likely an SC25 spot too.

I thought solar min is not until 2019

and so c25 won't start until 2019/20 ????

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53 minutes ago, karyo said:

The solar flux is creeping up a bit but at least we are still spotless.

A small spot formed in the NH yesterday.

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1 minute ago, Yarmy said:

A small spot formed in the NH yesterday.

But quickly disappeared again

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1 minute ago, jonboy said:

But quickly disappeared again

It's still there right now, but I'd say it's fading as we speak (comparing the midnight snapshot with the current).

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1 minute ago, jonboy said:

But quickly disappeared again

Phew 🙂

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27 minutes ago, John Badrick said:

I thought solar min is not until 2019

and so c25 won't start until 2019/20 ????

The first SC24 spots formed long before the last solar minimum. There is always crossover because the solar min is just defined as the lowest smoothed monthly sunspot number.  The new spot fits both the criteria for a spot belonging to the next cycle, namely:

1. It exhibits reversed polarity.

2. It's high latitude.

 

Edited by Yarmy

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1 hour ago, Yarmy said:

The first SC24 spots formed long before the last solar minimum. There is always crossover because the solar min is just defined as the lowest smoothed monthly sunspot number.  The new spot fits both the criteria for a spot belonging to the next cycle, namely:

1. It exhibits reversed polarity.

2. It's high latitude.

 

does this mean that cycle 24 is showing signs that it's not going to be as low aS 23 and therefore 25 is going to be more active that people are thought to believe?

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13 minutes ago, John Badrick said:

does this mean that cycle 24 is showing signs that it's not going to be as low aS 23 and therefore 25 is going to be more active that people are thought to believe?

Not at all, it's normal. All the forecasts I have seen so far have been for SC25 to be about the same or slightly weaker than SC24 (including the one posted yesterday from Hathaway).

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 Getting déjà vu here as I’m sure we had the same conversations going on when we had the last reverse polarity  spot a few months ago. 

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Sunspot number: 0
Updated 10 Nov 2018

Spotless Days
Current Stretch: 23 days
2018 total: 189 days (60%)

The Radio Sun
10.7 cm flux: 70 sfu.

Edited by Katrine Basso
Edit by Katrine Basso
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59 minutes ago, Katrine Basso said:

Sunspot number: 0
Updated 10 Nov 2018

Spotless Days
Current Stretch: 23 days
2018 total: 189 days (60%)

The Radio Sun
10.7 cm flux: 70 sfu.

Really bizarre that Boulder hasn’t counted this since it’s still visible even now.

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24 day's blank, 190 for 2018, 61%

Solar flux 69

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AURORAS EXPLODE OVER NORWAY: Arriving right on time, a stream of high speed solar wind hit Earth's magnetic field on Nov. 10th. The sky above Norway responded --- by exploding. Markus Varik photographed the outburst of light over Tromsø:

http://0e33611cb8e6da737d5c-e13b5a910e105e07f9070866adaae10b.r15.cf1.rackcdn.com/Markus-Varik-Greenlander.no--2_1541897719_lg.jpg

 

Edited by Katrine Basso
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AURORAS IN THE SHAPE OF A PHOENIX: Solar wind is blowing around Earth faster than 600 km/s. Last night, the onrushing gas sparked auroras over Norway in the shape of a Phoenix:

 

phoenix_strip.jpg

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Thermosphere Climate Index
today: 4.26x1010 W Cold
Max: 49.4x1010 W Hot (10/1957)
Min: 2.05x1010 W Cold (02/2009)

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Thermosphere Climate Index
today: 4.18x1010 W Cold
Max: 49.4x1010 W Hot (10/1957)
Min: 2.05x1010 W Cold (02/2009)

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The Thermospehere temperatures are getting colder:

Thermosphere Climate Index
today: 3.99x1010 W Cold
Max: 49.4x1010 W Hot (10/1957)
Min: 2.05x1010 W Cold (02/2009)

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AN OUTBURST OF RAINBOW-COLOURED AURORAS: Northern lights are often green, sometimes red, and rarely pink or blue. On Nov. 19th, an outburst of Northern Lights over Tromsø, Norway, painted the sky with all the colours of the rainbow.

AN OUTBURST OF RAINBOW-COLORED AURORAS.jpg

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Finally gone blank again.

1 day blank, 191 for 2018 59%

Solar flux 71

Hopefully we can get to 200 before another spot appears.

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