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Solar and Aurora Activity Chat


shuggee

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Posted
  • Location: South Ockendon, Thurrock, SW Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Severe frosts, Heavy snowfall, Thunder and lightning, Stormy weather
  • Location: South Ockendon, Thurrock, SW Essex

Sunspot number: 0
Updated 03 November 2018

Current Stretch: 16 days
2018 total: 182 days (59%)

The Radio Sun
10.7 cm flux: 68 sfu

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Posted
  • Location: Coniston, Cumbria 90m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: wintry
  • Location: Coniston, Cumbria 90m ASL
2 hours ago, Midlands Ice Age said:

 

Jeff..

 Its much too early yet.

But we will see.

 MIA

Yes, ok, I should have qualified that. I should have said isn't it nice when theories start to appear as though they may be  justified?

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Posted
  • Location: York
  • Weather Preferences: Long warm summer evenings. Cold frosty sunny winter days.
  • Location: York
14 hours ago, JeffC said:

Agreed and there was also mention previously on this thread or perhaps the "what effect will Solar Minimum have on weather and climate take 2?"thread regarding increased volcanic / seismic activity during solar minimum which can also effect things. I'm not sure of that mechanism unless it's just straightforward physics i.e. The earth cools and the tectonic plates contract ever so slightly-unlikely to be that simple! Or it could, as someone observed be a result of changes in geomagnetic due to radiation level changes coming from the sun... 

One of the theories is that at solar minimum the earth is less protected by the sun's magnetic field thus allowing greater impact by muon's passing through the earth's core which agitates the mantle leading to more earthquake and volcanic activity at solar minimum. Given that this minimum and possibly the next will be considerably lower than any experienced in possibly 200 years we could see significant events over the next twenty years which of course in terms of volcanic activity can affect climate

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Posted
  • Location: Coniston, Cumbria 90m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: wintry
  • Location: Coniston, Cumbria 90m ASL
10 minutes ago, jonboy said:

One of the theories is that at solar minimum the earth is less protected by the sun's magnetic field thus allowing greater impact by muon's passing through the earth's core which agitates the mantle leading to more earthquake and volcanic activity at solar minimum. Given that this minimum and possibly the next will be considerably lower than any experienced in possibly 200 years we could see significant events over the next twenty years which of course in terms of volcanic activity can affect climate

*rapidly Googles muons...I meet plenty of morons in my life, but muons...

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
49 minutes ago, jonboy said:

One of the theories is that at solar minimum the earth is less protected by the sun's magnetic field thus allowing greater impact by muon's passing through the earth's core which agitates the mantle leading to more earthquake and volcanic activity at solar minimum. Given that this minimum and possibly the next will be considerably lower than any experienced in possibly 200 years we could see significant events over the next twenty years which of course in terms of volcanic activity can affect climate

But that's all purely hypothetical, jonboy: not only have muons themselves only recently been detected, their putative effects at the time of solar minima, have never, ever been either detected or measured.

I'll keep a very open mind, however.

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Posted
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Hot sunny , cold and snowy, thunderstorms
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset

17 day's blank, 183 for 2018, 60%

Solar flux 68

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Posted
  • Location: South Ockendon, Thurrock, SW Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Severe frosts, Heavy snowfall, Thunder and lightning, Stormy weather
  • Location: South Ockendon, Thurrock, SW Essex

Thermosphere Climate Index
today: 4.09x1010 W Cold
Max: 49.4x1010 W Hot (10/1957)
Min: 2.05x1010 W Cold (02/2009)

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Posted
  • Location: Cheddar Valley, 20mtrs asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and lots of it or warm and sunny, no mediocre dross
  • Location: Cheddar Valley, 20mtrs asl
16 hours ago, Midlands Ice Age said:

 

Jeff..

 Its much too early yet.

But we will see.

 MIA

But one suggested impact of a quiet Sun, the change in UV levels impacting upon the jet stream, leading it to have a tendency towards being more meridional, does seem to be happening.

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Posted
  • Location: Coniston, Cumbria 90m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: wintry
  • Location: Coniston, Cumbria 90m ASL
3 hours ago, jethro said:

But one suggested impact of a quiet Sun, the change in UV levels impacting upon the jet stream, leading it to have a tendency towards being more meridional, does seem to be happening.

Indeed, has been all year... 

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Posted
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Hot sunny , cold and snowy, thunderstorms
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset

18 day's blank, 184 for 2018, 60%

Solar flux 67

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Posted
  • Location: South Ockendon, Thurrock, SW Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Severe frosts, Heavy snowfall, Thunder and lightning, Stormy weather
  • Location: South Ockendon, Thurrock, SW Essex

Thermosphere Climate Index
today: 4.05x1010 W Cold
Max: 49.4x1010 W Hot (10/1957)
Min: 2.05x1010 W Cold (02/2009)
explanation | more data
Updated 04 Nov 2018

Down from 4.09x1010 W Cold to 4.05x1010 W Cold and how long it will take before it goes down to the level at 2.05x1010 W Cold (02/2009).

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Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
On 04/11/2018 at 09:55, jethro said:

But one suggested impact of a quiet Sun, the change in UV levels impacting upon the jet stream, leading it to have a tendency towards being more meridional, does seem to be happening.

Definitely, a theory of a ‘solarist’ such as I.  We have witnessed this, more extremes, more ‘ruts’ and crazy temp fluctuations.

On another comment...Re volcanic activity.....I’m out there on my Sig....major eruption in 2020s to cement global step down

 

BFTP

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Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
On 03/11/2018 at 17:33, Midlands Ice Age said:

 

Jeff..

 Its much too early yet.

But we will see.

 MIA

Refreeze has been very rapid...

BFTP

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Posted
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Hot sunny , cold and snowy, thunderstorms
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset

19 day's blank, 185 for 2018 60%

Solar flux 68

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Posted
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Hot sunny , cold and snowy, thunderstorms
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset

20 day's blank, 186 for 2018 60%

Solar flux 69

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Posted
  • Location: Near Allenheads,1400 feet up in northumberland
  • Location: Near Allenheads,1400 feet up in northumberland

Wether her prediction is right or wrong an interesting video. If right we should all move south! And by south i don’t mean Spain but maybe Ghana, Nigeria!

Edited by tynevalleysnow
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Posted
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
23 minutes ago, tynevalleysnow said:

Wether her prediction is right or wrong an interesting video. If right we should all move south! And by south i don’t mean Spain but maybe Ghana, Nigeria!

Just be aware, she has no qualifications or publications related to climate, and the GWPF is a climate change denial group who have got her onboard and highlighted particular slides and hidden others, to promote their agenda.
Not trying to start anything, it's just better to be informed of this stuff than uninformed. There are plenty of researchers out there that specialise in Earth-Sun connections, but Zharkova is not one of them, and the GWPF is not a respectable nor scientific group.

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Posted
  • Location: Near Allenheads,1400 feet up in northumberland
  • Location: Near Allenheads,1400 feet up in northumberland
3 hours ago, BornFromTheVoid said:

Just be aware, she has no qualifications or publications related to climate, and the GWPF is a climate change denial group who have got her onboard and highlighted particular slides and hidden others, to promote their agenda.
Not trying to start anything, it's just better to be informed of this stuff than uninformed. There are plenty of researchers out there that specialise in Earth-Sun connections, but Zharkova is not one of them, and the GWPF is not a respectable nor scientific group.

Still an interesting watch for anyone interested in the sun. Will not take long to prove her wrong or right

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Posted
  • Location: Bude
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme weather...heavy snow and heat waves
  • Location: Bude
10 hours ago, BornFromTheVoid said:

Just be aware, she has no qualifications or publications related to climate, and the GWPF is a climate change denial group who have got her onboard and highlighted particular slides and hidden others, to promote their agenda.
Not trying to start anything, it's just better to be informed of this stuff than uninformed. There are plenty of researchers out there that specialise in Earth-Sun connections, but Zharkova is not one of them, and the GWPF is not a respectable nor scientific group.

I was just about to post this clip. what do people think? it does make you stop and think, very interesting and like you say time will tell and in the not so distant future

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Posted
  • Location: Coniston, Cumbria 90m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: wintry
  • Location: Coniston, Cumbria 90m ASL
5 hours ago, John Badrick said:

I was just about to post this clip. what do people think? it does make you stop and think, very interesting and like you say time will tell and in the not so distant future

I think that it's an interesting view on things and, as with many aspects of the solar cycle and the implications to us on the earth, there is much to take note of and learn from. In my eyes we can only truly be accurate with hindsight, but when theories are either proven correct or incorrect this adds to the pool of knowledge and helps improve forecasts in the future.

Discount nothing until it is proven to be a failed theory!

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Posted
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Hot sunny , cold and snowy, thunderstorms
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset

21 day's blank, 187 for 2018, 60%

Solar flux 69

Edited by SteveB
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Posted
  • Location: Near Allenheads,1400 feet up in northumberland
  • Location: Near Allenheads,1400 feet up in northumberland
3 hours ago, JeffC said:

I think that it's an interesting view on things and, as with many aspects of the solar cycle and the implications to us on the earth, there is much to take note of and learn from. In my eyes we can only truly be accurate with hindsight, but when theories are either proven correct or incorrect this adds to the pool of knowledge and helps improve forecasts in the future.

Discount nothing until it is proven to be a failed theory!

Exactly my thoughts. Although most of us like a cold snowy winter I think everyone will hope she is wrong!

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Posted
  • Location: Near King's Lynn 13.68m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Hoar Frost, Snow, Misty Autumn mornings
  • Location: Near King's Lynn 13.68m ASL
20 hours ago, BornFromTheVoid said:

Just be aware, she has no qualifications or publications related to climate, and the GWPF is a climate change denial group who have got her onboard and highlighted particular slides and hidden others, to promote their agenda.
Not trying to start anything, it's just better to be informed of this stuff than uninformed. There are plenty of researchers out there that specialise in Earth-Sun connections, but Zharkova is not one of them, and the GWPF is not a respectable nor scientific group.

I've watched it in full now. It's a little difficult to follow because of Zharkova's, um, exotic oscillating accent. However, if you filter out all the climate stuff (presumably in there for the audience) and the demonstrably false claim that she and her colleagues were the only ones to predict the last solar maximum, then there is some genuine science in there. It's much clearer here:

https://www.nature.com/articles/srep15689

So it's an application of PCA to the observed solar magnetic field since 1979 which is then extrapolated backwards and forwards to hindcast and forecast solar activity over 1000s of years. There isn't a single mention of climate.

I've got no idea whether there's any merit to it, but it's a good theory in the sense that we won't have to wait long to see if it fails.

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