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Sunspot number: 0
Updated 27 Oct 2018

Current Stretch: 9 days
2018 total: 175 days (58%)

The Radio Sun
10.7 cm flux: 69 sfu

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Interesting bit on Spaceweather.com about TCI ( The daily Thermosphere Climate Index (TCI) is now on Spaceweather.com. TCI is a relatively new space weather metric that tells us how the top of Earth's atmosphere (or "thermosphere") is responding to solar activity. During Solar Maximum, the top of our atmosphere heats up and expands. Right now the opposite is happening. Solar Minimum conditions are in effect, and this is causing the upper atmosphere to cool off:) 

Wonder what part this plays in so called climate change?

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Sunspot number: 0
Updated 28 Oct 2018

Current Stretch: 10 days
2018 total: 176 days (59%)

The Radio Sun
10.7 cm flux: 69 sfu

Edited by Katrine Basso
change percentage

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11 day's blank, 177 for 2018, 59%

Solar flux 69

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22 minutes ago, SteveB said:

11 day's blank, 177 for 2018, 59%

Solar flux 69

59% gives final tally of 215 days blank at that run rate... I would guess in theory 220-225 could be in the cards

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On ‎27‎/‎10‎/‎2018 at 10:13, jonboy said:

Interesting bit on Spaceweather.com about TCI ( The daily Thermosphere Climate Index (TCI) is now on Spaceweather.com. TCI is a relatively new space weather metric that tells us how the top of Earth's atmosphere (or "thermosphere") is responding to solar activity. During Solar Maximum, the top of our atmosphere heats up and expands. Right now the opposite is happening. Solar Minimum conditions are in effect, and this is causing the upper atmosphere to cool off:) 

Wonder what part this plays in so called climate change?

Following on from the above I thought the following quote from the article was interesting

Just because the rarefied air up there is cooling off, it doesn’t mean the surface of the Earth is getting colder. Not yet, at least.

If they believe a cold thermosphere can lead to colder temperatures at the surface why not the other way round give that over the last three or more cycles we have seen very high thermosphere temperatures?

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2 hours ago, jonboy said:

Following on from the above I thought the following quote from the article was interesting

Just because the rarefied air up there is cooling off, it doesn’t mean the surface of the Earth is getting colder. Not yet, at least.

If they believe a cold thermosphere can lead to colder temperatures at the surface why not the other way round give that over the last three or more cycles we have seen very high thermosphere temperatures?

could be that a cooling and therefore contracting thermosphere will become more dense and then help to reduce the penetration of solar energy through into the lower atmosphere, creating an extra cooling effect?

This would take time to kick in but there's no reason there shouldn't be two-way influences...as far as I know!

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I can't see any reason why it couldn't have effects on natural cycles of climate change, it is part of a natural cycle, after all...

That said, it is nothing to do with the man-made, unidirectional build up of organic carbon...

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12 day's blank, 178 for 2018, 59%

Solar flux 68

 

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20 hours ago, Ed Stone said:

I can't see any reason why it couldn't have effects on natural cycles of climate change, it is part of a natural cycle, after all...

That said, it is nothing to do with the man-made, unidirectional build up of organic carbon...

Couldn't help yourself could you!!!!

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13 day's blank, 179 day's for 2018 59%

Solar flux 68

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2 hours ago, SteveB said:

13 day's blank, 179 day's for 2018 59%

Solar flux 68

what's the lowest solar flux ever recorded and what were the implications please? Anybody know without me going trawling?

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12 minutes ago, JeffC said:

what's the lowest solar flux ever recorded and what were the implications please? Anybody know without me going trawling?

The (adjusted) index can't really drop below 65 because that's the background radio emission from the Sun.

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23 hours ago, JeffC said:

what's the lowest solar flux ever recorded and what were the implications please? Anybody know without me going trawling?

I’m sure I heard somewhere that 100 is the important number. Above 100 earth warms below 100 earth cools

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Sunspot number: 0
Updated 01 November 2018

Current Stretch: 14 days
2018 total: 180 days (59%)

The Radio Sun
10.7 cm flux: 67 sfu

Edited by Katrine Basso
Edit percentage

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And the Thermosphere keeps getting colder on the 27th its was Thermosphere Climate Index
today: 4.3
x1010W Cold 

and today it is oday: 4.15x1010W Cold

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Sunspot number: 0
Updated 02 November 2018

Current Stretch: 15 days
2018 total: 181 days (59%)

The Radio Sun
10.7 cm flux: 67 sfu

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Finding it fascinating following the sun's activity during its descent into solar minimum.  The latest uninterrupted run of spotless days (15) must be one of the longest yet in this cycle and we are almost inevitably going to exceed 200 days this year now.  I struggle to understand why, if the sun is our main global energy driver, I have not heard more about the increasingly low solar activity as a natural factor in the current reports about climate change.

Anyway, how deep will be the solar minimum go when it's here!!

David

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1 hour ago, Brucie said:

Finding it fascinating following the sun's activity during its descent into solar minimum.  The latest uninterrupted run of spotless days (15) must be one of the longest yet in this cycle and we are almost inevitably going to exceed 200 days this year now.  I struggle to understand why, if the sun is our main global energy driver, I have not heard more about the increasingly low solar activity as a natural factor in the current reports about climate change.

Anyway, how deep will be the solar minimum go when it's here!!

David

Low solar does not mean what the 'can' says.

It is actually low sunspot count.

In the warming (Infra-red)  zone of the suns transmissions  there is hardly any difference in energy. Models therefore show hardly any affect.. 

It is only in the last 10years that it has been realised that 'energy' in the UV band reaching the earth starts to vary.

This variation has been measured at up to 25%, but an average figure of 15% is believed to be  more realistic. 

It is thought that this affects the chemistry in the outer layers of the stratosphere, and cooling is now being reported at the very highest levels of the stratosphere. Hence Jonboys postings on the Thermosphere above.

The above affect is not the only one, including more high energy particles hitting the earth from space. 

Much climate research is being conducted into studying these affects.

The climate models currently are unable  to predict/ignore/program  these affects.

Joanna Haigh is a leading light in examining these responses.

Basically it is still too early to predict what the climate response is to these indirect changes which may affect the earths albedo.

History tells us that the climate tends to become colder (the Maunder Minimum, and the Little Ice Age) and other low sunspot periods tend to make the climate more unstable. It is still to soon to be certain as to what will happen, but it is the only possible explanation,  at the moment,  for temporary variations between the major icings of the earth.

 

It is an exciting time for research in this area.

MIA

Edited by Midlands Ice Age

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7 hours ago, Midlands Ice Age said:

Low solar does not mean what the 'can' says.

It is actually low sunspot count.

In the warming (Infra-red)  zone of the suns transmissions  there is hardly any difference in energy. Models therefore show hardly any affect.. 

It is only in the last 10years that it has been realised that 'energy' in the UV band reaching the earth starts to vary.

This variation has been measured at up to 25%, but an average figure of 15% is believed to be  more realistic. 

It is thought that this affects the chemistry in the outer layers of the stratosphere, and cooling is now being reported at the very highest levels of the stratosphere. Hence Jonboys postings on the Thermosphere above.

The above affect is not the only one, including more high energy particles hitting the earth from space. 

Much climate research is being conducted into studying these affects.

The climate models currently are unable  to predict/ignore/program  these affects.

Joanna Haigh is a leading light in examining these responses.

Basically it is still too early to predict what the climate response is to these indirect changes which may affect the earths albedo.

History tells us that the climate tends to become colder (the Maunder Minimum, and the Little Ice Age) and other low sunspot periods tend to make the climate more unstable. It is still to soon to be certain as to what will happen, but it is the only possible explanation,  at the moment,  for temporary variations between the major icings of the earth.

 

It is an exciting time for research in this area.

MIA

Agreed and there was also mention previously on this thread or perhaps the "what effect will Solar Minimum have on weather and climate take 2?"thread regarding increased volcanic / seismic activity during solar minimum which can also effect things. I'm not sure of that mechanism unless it's just straightforward physics i.e. The earth cools and the tectonic plates contract ever so slightly-unlikely to be that simple! Or it could, as someone observed be a result of changes in geomagnetic due to radiation level changes coming from the sun... 

Edited by JeffC

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3 hours ago, JeffC said:

Agreed and there was also mention previously on this thread or perhaps the "what effect will Solar Minimum have on weather and climate take 2?"thread regarding increased volcanic / seismic activity during solar minimum which can also effect things. I'm not sure of that mechanism unless it's just straightforward physics i.e. The earth cools and the tectonic plates contract ever so slightly-unlikely to be that simple! Or it could, as someone observed be a result of changes in geomagnetic due to radiation level changes coming from the sun... 

You are correct..

A further possible impact is the one that could impact the Poles.

Basically the Thermostatic cooling in evidence in the stratosphere is thought (by some) to reduce the effective height at which heat is sent back into space. 

Over the poles(where this height is substantially reduced anyway), it is thought that it will substantially aid the loss of heat.

It is just possible that this effect is actually occurring right now, whereby a lot of heat has been moved into the Arctic Seas....

the heat stops the seas freezing.... more heat is lost from water than ice (the albedo effect).....  this heat is more easily lost to space.

This appears to describe exactly what is happening this year in the Arctic, where the refreeze was delayed by a burst of warm air from the Pacific - just as the refreeze was due to begin (mid Sept). This stagnated/delayed over the pole leaving open water.

This heat then  took 2 to 3 weeks to be radiated into space (with quiet weather at the time) and possibly aided by the lower thermosphere, enabled the SST's to drop to the point at which the freeze could begin in earnest.

All this time the 2M temperature anomaly has been +2.0C to +5.0C above normal. 

Despite that Hey presto.. one gets a very fast and very late flash refreeze over the central basin. As has occurred!

Will this have any effect in the more central area  (us?) of the  Northern Hemisphere? History (Maunder Minimum and the little ice age) suggests it may.  It gives the first possible scientific explanation for the effect of Little Ice Ages.

I am not suggesting that a LIA  will occur at this point in time - despite my name!!!.:unknw:😁

It is all theory at present, but does seem to match what is being observed. 

Is the magnitude of the effect increased by the low solar count?                        Time will tell.

Possibly a pertinent question for many is what happens when all the ice in the basin is refrozen?.....

I attach the link from Vshop for what this means, and its effect on the ice.

index.php?action=dlattach;topic=2223.0;a

index.php?action=dlattach;topic=2223.0;a

and the above is a table for where we currently sit in terms of the last 10 years. Currently we are still gaining (compared to normal refreeze rates) for this time of year. Each day the ice is still gaining an average of about 70K Km2 compared to the average  of the last 10 years. As the  regions in the Central Arctic completely refreeze one can expect that the rate of increase will reduce to zero.

I estimate that there are about 1,500K Km2  left to refreeze. This could take a further 1 to 2 weeks. Will we move from last position (middle of October) to one near the top in a single month?.     Unlikely - but it would be a big plus for the theory!!

This might possibly better sit in the Arctic Ice refreeze forum...but I thought it relevant to this discussion.

 

Midlands Ice Age

Edited by Midlands Ice Age

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Both SpaceWeather.com and Solarham.net have not updated.

SILSO has today's sunspot count as zero.

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4 hours ago, Midlands Ice Age said:

You are correct..

A further possible impact is the one that could impact the Poles.

Basically the Thermostatic cooling in evidence in the stratosphere is thought (by some) to reduce the effective height at which heat is sent back into space. 

Over the poles(where this height is substantially reduced anyway), it is thought that it will substantially aid the loss of heat.

It is just possible that this effect is actually occurring right now, whereby a lot of heat has been moved into the Arctic Seas....

the heat stops the seas freezing.... more heat is lost from water than ice (the albedo effect).....  this heat is more easily lost to space.

This appears to describe exactly what is happening this year in the Arctic, where the refreeze was delayed by a burst of warm air from the Pacific - just as the refreeze was due to begin (mid Sept). This stagnated/delayed over the pole leaving open water.

This heat then  took 2 to 3 weeks to be radiated into space (with quiet weather at the time) and possibly aided by the lower thermosphere, enabled the SST's to drop to the point at which the freeze could begin in earnest.

All this time the 2M temperature anomaly has been +2.0C to +5.0C above normal. 

Despite that Hey presto.. one gets a very fast and very late flash refreeze over the central basin. As has occurred!

Will this have any effect in the more central area  (us?) of the  Northern Hemisphere? History (Maunder Minimum and the little ice age) suggests it may.  It gives the first possible scientific explanation for the effect of Little Ice Ages.

I am not suggesting that a LIA  will occur at this point in time - despite my name!!!.😁

It is all theory at present, but does seem to match what is being observed. 

Is the magnitude of the effect increased by the low solar count?                        Time will tell.

Possibly a pertinent question for many is what happens when all the ice in the basin is refrozen?.....

I attach the link from Vshop for what this means, and its effect on the ice.

index.php?action=dlattach;topic=2223.0;a

index.php?action=dlattach;topic=2223.0;a

and the above is a table for where we currently sit in terms of the last 10 years. Currently we are still gaining (compared to normal refreeze rates) for this time of year. Each day the ice is still gaining an average of about 70K Km2 compared to the average  of the last 10 years. As the  regions in the Central Arctic completely refreeze one can expect that the rate of increase will reduce to zero.

I estimate that there are about 1,500K Km2  left to refreeze. This could take a further 1 to 2 weeks. Will we move from last position (middle of October) to one near the top in a single month?.     Unlikely - but it would be a big plus for the theory!!

This might possibly better sit in the Arctic Ice refreeze forum...but I thought it relevant to this discussion.

 

Midlands Ice Age

Isn't it nice when theory becomes reality? 

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