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We are set for some interesting times.

http://spaceweather.com/

THE CHILL OF SOLAR MINIMUM: The sun is entering one of the deepest Solar Minima of the Space Age. Sunspots have been absent for most of 2018, and the sun's ultraviolet output has sharply dropped. New research shows that Earth's upper atmosphere is responding.

"We see a cooling trend," says Martin Mlynczak of NASA's Langley Research Center. "High above Earth's surface near the edge of space, our atmosphere is losing heat energy. If current trends continue, the upper atmosphere could soon set a Space Age record for cold."

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4 hours ago, Katrine Basso said:

We are set for some interesting times.

http://spaceweather.com/

THE CHILL OF SOLAR MINIMUM: The sun is entering one of the deepest Solar Minima of the Space Age. Sunspots have been absent for most of 2018, and the sun's ultraviolet output has sharply dropped. New research shows that Earth's upper atmosphere is responding.

"We see a cooling trend," says Martin Mlynczak of NASA's Langley Research Center. "High above Earth's surface near the edge of space, our atmosphere is losing heat energy. If current trends continue, the upper atmosphere could soon set a Space Age record for cold."

The NO TCI data show that the thermosphere was “Warm” only for a brief period of time at the maximum of solar cycle 24 and thus experienced the coolest solar maximum of the past seven solar cycles.

So the above is taken from  the abstract. If the last 7 cycles have had the upper atmosphere warm/hotter than now is this the reason we have seen a levelling of of global temperature and could well soon see a decline. Could it actually be this that has driven so called climate change I wonder?

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24 minutes ago, jonboy said:

The NO TCI data show that the thermosphere was “Warm” only for a brief period of time at the maximum of solar cycle 24 and thus experienced the coolest solar maximum of the past seven solar cycles.

So the above is taken from  the abstract. If the last 7 cycles have had the upper atmosphere warm/hotter than now is this the reason we have seen a levelling of of global temperature and could well soon see a decline. Could it actually be this that has driven so called climate change I wonder?

Oh no...Not another 'pause'?😨

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Just now, Ed Stone said:

Oh no...Not another 'pause'?😨

What before the solar cycles become very active again around 2040/50

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21 minutes ago, jonboy said:

The NO TCI data show that the thermosphere was “Warm” only for a brief period of time at the maximum of solar cycle 24 and thus experienced the coolest solar maximum of the past seven solar cycles.

So the above is taken from  the abstract. If the last 7 cycles have had the upper atmosphere warm/hotter than now is this the reason we have seen a levelling of of global temperature and could well soon see a decline. Could it actually be this that has driven so called climate change I wonder?

No. The Thermosphere density is incredibly low so temperature in the sense we understand it down here is almost meaningless in this context. There are hardly any molecules: it's just that they are whizzing around quickly. It's the region in which the ISS orbits: it's a vacuum, essentially. 

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16 day's blank, 158 for 2018 58%

Solar flux is 69

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This is heading exactly as anticipated re deep/Grand minima.  Target for Maunder style minima 2032....so 2029-2032 we should see super quiet sun.....and we should see ramifications from this one very very soon as we are entering Dalton style minima now!.  Jet not firing up as ‘some’ forecast due to AGW....solar Dalton grand minima is here.....hold on to your hats as we look to go deeper.  There WILL be ramifications from this folks

 

BFTP

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2 hours ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

This is heading exactly as anticipated re deep/Grand minima.  Target for Maunder style minima 2032....so 2029-2032 we should see super quiet sun.....and we should see ramifications from this one very very soon as we are entering Dalton style minima now!.  Jet not firing up as ‘some’ forecast due to AGW....solar Dalton grand minima is here.....hold on to your hats as we look to go deeper.  There WILL be ramifications from this folks

 

BFTP

I must be psychic, Fred. I was sure I'd read that post yesterday...:D

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I'm pretty sure I read your same sort of posts all the time too Ed😁

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On 21/09/2018 at 00:22, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

Of interest to follow, Schwabe cycle 11 years, last Schwabe minima

2007 = 152 days

2008 = 256 days

2009 = 250 days

 

Now move forward 11 years

2018 = 149 days.......with 102 days to go.  If this is going where anticipated then 2019/2020 could be very very quiet and we ‘could’ be in for a major bottoming out come 2029-2032? The target ‘projection’ of 1st of a double dip Grand Minima this century.

Fascinating observations currently

 

 

BFTP

Have opened a Schwabe thread for everyone's pleasure...

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On 21/09/2018 at 00:22, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

Of interest to follow, Schwabe cycle 11 years, last Schwabe minima

2007 = 152 days

2008 = 256 days

2009 = 250 days

 

Now move forward 11 years

2018 = 149 days.......with 102 days to go.  If this is going where anticipated then 2019/2020 could be very very quiet and we ‘could’ be in for a major bottoming out come 2029-2032? The target ‘projection’ of 1st of a double dip Grand Minima this century.

Fascinating observations currently

 

 

BFTP

The Schwabe cycle can vary in length between 9 and 14 years, 11 is just the rough average, so it's meaningless to compare calendar years like this. Why would the time it takes for the Earth to complete an orbit of the Sun have any relevance to the solar cycle?

A better metric to measure cycle progress is to use months since the 10th spotless day (10 is used because 1 or 2 spotless days can occur even at solar max):

SC25_evol0.png

 

This chart is 3 months out of date, but still you can see it's not possible to determine whether this will be a short or long minimum at this stage.

FWIW, I think this could be a long 'un. Time will tell.

Edited by Yarmy

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3 hours ago, Yarmy said:

The Schwabe cycle can vary in length between 9 and 14 years, 11 is just the rough average, so it's meaningless to compare calendar years like this. Why would the time it takes for the Earth to complete an orbit of the Sun have any relevance to the solar cycle?

A better metric to measure cycle progress is to use months since the 10th spotless day (10 is used because 1 or 2 spotless days can occur even at solar max):

SC25_evol0.png

 

This chart is 3 months out of date, but still you can see it's not possible to determine whether this will be a short or long minimum at this stage.

FWIW, I think this could be a long 'un. Time will tell.

Can you post that in the specially created thread?

Would be a useful post in there😀

Edited by JeffC

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12 hours ago, Weather-history said:

Episode of the Sky at Night from 30 years ago on sunspots etc

 

Cheers, interesting!

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Here are the sun spot activity from SILSO:

01 October : 17
02 October : 15
03 October : 13
04 October : 11
05 October : 0

Here are the sunspot activity from Spaceweather.com

01 October : 14
02 October : 14
03 October : 14
04 October : 12
05 October : 11
 
Which ones are correct?
 
 

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1 hour ago, Katrine Basso said:

Here are the sun spot activity from SILSO:

01 October : 17
02 October : 15
03 October : 13
04 October : 11
05 October : 0

Here are the sunspot activity from Spaceweather.com

01 October : 14
02 October : 14
03 October : 14
04 October : 12
05 October : 11
 
Which ones are correct?
 
 

They are both correct here is the explanation

The Boulder number (reported daily on SpaceWeather.com) is usually about 25% higher than the second official index, the "International Sunspot Number," published daily by the Solar Influences Data Center in Belgium. Both the Boulder and the International numbers are calculated from the same basic formula, but they incorporate data from different observatories.

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1 hour ago, jonboy said:

They are both correct here is the explanation

The Boulder number (reported daily on SpaceWeather.com) is usually about 25% higher than the second official index, the "International Sunspot Number," published daily by the Solar Influences Data Center in Belgium. Both the Boulder and the International numbers are calculated from the same basic formula, but they incorporate data from different observatories.

Yes, this is correct. Curiously though, Boulder counts more spotless days than SILSO: about 25 more for the current cycle. You'd think it would be the other way around. Over the course of the last minimum there was only a 2 day difference for the whole period, albeit with some variance year to year. For reference:

image.png.4ff2c25195f142b051269a1c5808a494.png 

 

Edit: Also, looking at the October list given, Spaceweather is always a day behind, so the number given for October 5th is for the 4th. SILSO updates in real time.

Edited by Yarmy
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Sunspot number: 0

Updated 06 October 2018

Current Stretch: 1 day
2018 total: 159 days (57%)

The Radio Sun
10.7 cm flux: 69 sfu

 

 

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So... we're now on 159 days, with 86 days left, the maximum number of spotless days we could theoretically achieve is 245 days. Realistically, there is likely to be a few more sunspots by the end of the year but I reckon we will still manage to pass the 200 mark

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Spaceweather and Solarham.net have not updated this morning.  According to SILSO this is the 3rd sun spotless day.

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Solarham.net have updated and have today's sun spotless count as zero but Spaceweather have yet to update.

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It's updated now,

2 day's blank, 160 for 2018 57%

Solar flux 69

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