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Just now, Ed Stone said:

That there'll be even more ramping than usual come Christmas!:santa-emoji:

This year we can claim statistics Ed. 55% chance that we get a December of 3.6C or colder.

 

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2 day's blank, 134 for 2018, 55%

Solar flux 71

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On 29/08/2018 at 10:50, summer blizzard said:

I thought we had the first reverse polarity sunspot in April?

We should go blank again in a day or two. 

About 3% of all sunspot groups exhibit reversed polarity, so every 1 in 30 or so will be the "wrong" way around. Besides, this one is at too low a latitude to be considered an SC25 spot. 

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21 hours ago, summer blizzard said:

This year we can claim statistics Ed. 55% chance that we get a December of 3.6C or colder.

 

what is normal chance of getting a december of 3.6C or colder in UK?

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In Belgium

average year december 1,0C: 18,93%
top 20 spotless years, december 1,0C: 40%

average year january 0,5C: 21,30%
top 20 spotless years, january 0,5C: 55%

average year february 1,0C: 21,89%
top 20 spotless years, february 1,0C: 30%

But... We must not forget that overall solar activity was lower during the 2nd half of the 19th century than during most of the 20th century, and that the Earth did warm substantially, so that the percentages of both an average year and of a top 20 spotless year might be much, much lower, and that the difference between a top 20 spotless year chance of low CET and an average year chance of low CET might be smaller than some might guess.

 

The effect of contemporary climate change is much higher than the effect of a top 20 spotless year on our climate, and more parameters come into place when you want to have an ideal winter setting... An QBOe seem to greatly improve winter chances, when combined with low solar activity.

Edited by Lakigigar

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Sunspot number: 0

Updated 01 Sep 2018

Spotless Days
Current Stretch: 3 days
2018 total: 134 days (55%)

The Radio Sun
10.7 cm flux: 68 sfu

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Sunspot number: 0

Updated 02 Sep 2018

Spotless Days
Current Stretch: 4 days
2018 total: 135 days (55%)

The Radio Sun
10.7 cm flux: 68 sfu

Edited by Katrine Basso
Put in an extra space

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Spaceweather.com has not updated this morning but Solarham.net and SILSO both report a spotless sun.

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Spaceweather.com has updated

Sunspot number: 0

Updated 03 Sep 2018

Spotless Days
Current Stretch: 5 days
2018 total: 136 days (55%)

The Radio Sun
10.7 cm flux: 68 sfu

Solar winds are flowing from the coronal hole and should reach earth on 7th September as well as minor geomagnetic storms.

 

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6 day's blank, 137 for 2018 55%

Solar flux is 68

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On 31/08/2018 at 19:05, Lakigigar said:

what is normal chance of getting a december of 3.6C or colder in UK?

About 25% assuming a normal distribution.

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7 day's blank, 138 for 2018, 56%

Solar flux is 68

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Spaceweather.com has not updated this morning but Solarham.net and SILSO both have a 0 sunspot count. 

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Sunspot number: 0
Updated 07 Sep 2018

Spotless Days
Current Stretch: 9 days
2018 total: 140 days (56%)

The Radio Sun
10.7 cm flux: 67 sfu

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10 day's blank, 141 for 2018, 56%

Solar flux 67

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Sunspot number: 0
Updated 11 Sep 2018

Spotless Days
Current Stretch: 1 day
2018 total: 142 days (56%)

The Radio Sun
10.7 cm flux: 69 sfu

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Sunspot number: 0

Spotless Days
Current Stretch: 1 day
2018 total: 142 days (56%)

The Radio Sun
10.7 cm flux: 70 sfu

This is the second time where there has been a break of two days between each sun spotless cycle. 

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Sunspot number: 0

Spotless Days
Current Stretch: 2 day
2018 total: 144 days (56%)

The Radio Sun
10.7 cm flux: 69 sfu

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Sunspot number: 0

Spotless Days
Current Stretch: 4 day
2018 total: 146 days (56%)

The Radio Sun
10.7 cm flux: 69 sfu

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Sunspot number: 0

Spotless Days
Current Stretch: 5 day
2018 total: 147 days (56%)

The Radio Sun
10.7 cm flux: 69 sfu

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