Jump to content
Holidays
Local
Radar
Snow?
shuggee

Solar and Aurora Activity Chat

Recommended Posts

9 day's blank, 130 for 2018, 58%

Solar flux 70

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

It looks like we are going to easily achieve 200 sun spotless days.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Daily sun: 13th August 2018

Sunspot number: 0

Current Stretch: 10 days
2018 total: 131 days (58%)

The Radio Sun
10.7 cm flux: 70 sfu

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Daily sun: 14th August 2018

Sunspot number: 0

Current Stretch: 11 days
2018 total: 132 days (58%)

The Radio Sun
10.7 cm flux: 68 sfu

 

📣

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

First sun spot in 12 days but I do not think it is going to last.  Sunspot number 12 but the solar flux is still 68. I won't be surprised if it disappears by tomorrow.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

A beautiful show of northern lights this morning over Sandsound, Shetland.
Its a good start to our aurora season
and looking forward for lots more.

(Credit on pic)

FB_IMG_1534399963210.thumb.jpg.a36e9ec9891e596006a1606cc0c6225b.jpg

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The sunspots have overstayed their welcome.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Currently Kp 7 storm forecast for the next 24hr.

REVERSE POLARITY SUNSPOT: New sunspot AR2720 is not only large, but also strange. Its magnetic polarity is reversed. The North and South ends of its enormous magnetic field are backwards compared to the norm for sunspots in the current solar cycle, decaying Solar Cycle 24. Could AR2720 be the first big sunspot of the next solar cycle, Solar Cycle 25, popping up now in the middle of solar minimum? 

Credit Spaceweather:

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I thought we had the first reverse polarity sunspot in April?

We should go blank again in a day or two. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Well that spot out stayed it's welcome,

1 day blank, 133 for 2018 55%

Solar flux 71

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, SteveB said:

Well that spot out stayed it's welcome,

1 day blank, 133 for 2018 55%

Solar flux 71

Yes, we have lost half a month! Let's hope September will be quiet.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I hope so too, and I hope that the solar flux will stabilise and lower to 67 or less.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, karyo said:

Yes, we have lost half a month! Let's hope September will be quiet.

I'm hoping the rest of the year will be quiet!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Should still have no problem getting another 90 spotless days i think.

Edited by summer blizzard

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, Lakigigar said:

why is it so important to have spotless days?

Lower sun spot activity during the year  can correlate to below average winter temperatures. Of course other aspects come in to play. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
15 minutes ago, Lakigigar said:

why is it so important to have spotless days?

Low solar cycles have strong correlation to blocking patterns in the Northern Hemisphere  which if set up in the correct place can lead to cold winters.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Still i don't get it. What's the difference between 180 spotless days and 200 spotless days? And doesn't amount of sunspots also matter. What's that sunspot that stayed there during half of august going to change? I know there is a correlation, but it's predictable when a sun cycle will end and when not... so i could predict a long time beforehand that this year, 2019 and 2020 will have low solar activity, and that the winters of '18-'19, '19-20, '20-'21 and possibly '21-'22 have potential. I think because of eQBO the winters of '18-'19 and '20-'21 have most potential to be cold.

Edited by Lakigigar

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 hours ago, Lakigigar said:

Still i don't get it. What's the difference between 180 spotless days and 200 spotless days? And doesn't amount of sunspots also matter. What's that sunspot that stayed there during half of august going to change? I know there is a correlation, but it's predictable when a sun cycle will end and when not... so i could predict a long time beforehand that this year, 2019 and 2020 will have low solar activity, and that the winters of '18-'19, '19-20, '20-'21 and possibly '21-'22 have potential. I think because of eQBO the winters of '18-'19 and '20-'21 have most potential to be cold.r

20 spotless days. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
8 minutes ago, Lakigigar said:

What do those 20 spotless days change about the upcoming winter???

 Nothing quantifiable. It is a bit frustrating as it’s all likelihood based and so nothing  certain will change with an extra 20 days. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Lakigigar said:

What do those 20 spotless days change about the upcoming winter???

That there'll be even more ramping than usual come Christmas!:santa-emoji:

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Lakigigar said:

What do those 20 spotless days change about the upcoming winter???

Individually nothing but statistically the deeper we go, the better the CET may look. 

If we look at the top 20 spotless years for example then sub 3.6, 3.4, 3.4 has a 55%, 40% and 30% chance in terms of each winter month. 

If we hit top 10 spotless years then that becomes 50%, 50%, 40%. 

..

This year is a top 20 year, 2019 and 2020 probably being top 10.

..

Plus its interesting to monitor. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now

  • Recently Browsing   1 member

×
×
  • Create New...