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Solar and Aurora Activity Chat


shuggee

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Posted
  • Location: South Ockendon, Thurrock, SW Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Severe frosts, Heavy snowfall, Thunder and lightning, Stormy weather
  • Location: South Ockendon, Thurrock, SW Essex

It looks like we are going to easily achieve 200 sun spotless days.

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Posted
  • Location: South Ockendon, Thurrock, SW Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Severe frosts, Heavy snowfall, Thunder and lightning, Stormy weather
  • Location: South Ockendon, Thurrock, SW Essex

Daily sun: 13th August 2018

Sunspot number: 0

Current Stretch: 10 days
2018 total: 131 days (58%)

The Radio Sun
10.7 cm flux: 70 sfu

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Posted
  • Location: South Ockendon, Thurrock, SW Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Severe frosts, Heavy snowfall, Thunder and lightning, Stormy weather
  • Location: South Ockendon, Thurrock, SW Essex

Daily sun: 14th August 2018

Sunspot number: 0

Current Stretch: 11 days
2018 total: 132 days (58%)

The Radio Sun
10.7 cm flux: 68 sfu

 

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Posted
  • Location: South Ockendon, Thurrock, SW Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Severe frosts, Heavy snowfall, Thunder and lightning, Stormy weather
  • Location: South Ockendon, Thurrock, SW Essex

First sun spot in 12 days but I do not think it is going to last.  Sunspot number 12 but the solar flux is still 68. I won't be surprised if it disappears by tomorrow.

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Posted
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.

A beautiful show of northern lights this morning over Sandsound, Shetland.
Its a good start to our aurora season
and looking forward for lots more.

(Credit on pic)

FB_IMG_1534399963210.thumb.jpg.a36e9ec9891e596006a1606cc0c6225b.jpg

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

Still have a sun spot. 

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Posted
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.

Currently Kp 7 storm forecast for the next 24hr.

REVERSE POLARITY SUNSPOT: New sunspot AR2720 is not only large, but also strange. Its magnetic polarity is reversed. The North and South ends of its enormous magnetic field are backwards compared to the norm for sunspots in the current solar cycle, decaying Solar Cycle 24. Could AR2720 be the first big sunspot of the next solar cycle, Solar Cycle 25, popping up now in the middle of solar minimum? 

Credit Spaceweather:

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

I thought we had the first reverse polarity sunspot in April?

We should go blank again in a day or two. 

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Posted
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Hot sunny , cold and snowy, thunderstorms
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset

Well that spot out stayed it's welcome,

1 day blank, 133 for 2018 55%

Solar flux 71

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Posted
  • Location: Brighton (currently)
  • Location: Brighton (currently)
1 hour ago, SteveB said:

Well that spot out stayed it's welcome,

1 day blank, 133 for 2018 55%

Solar flux 71

Yes, we have lost half a month! Let's hope September will be quiet.

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Posted
  • Location: South Ockendon, Thurrock, SW Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Severe frosts, Heavy snowfall, Thunder and lightning, Stormy weather
  • Location: South Ockendon, Thurrock, SW Essex

I hope so too, and I hope that the solar flux will stabilise and lower to 67 or less.

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Posted
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Hot sunny , cold and snowy, thunderstorms
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset
2 hours ago, karyo said:

Yes, we have lost half a month! Let's hope September will be quiet.

I'm hoping the rest of the year will be quiet!

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

Should still have no problem getting another 90 spotless days i think.

Edited by summer blizzard
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Posted
  • Location: Kensington
  • Location: Kensington
2 minutes ago, Lakigigar said:

why is it so important to have spotless days?

Lower sun spot activity during the year  can correlate to below average winter temperatures. Of course other aspects come in to play. 

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Posted
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Hot sunny , cold and snowy, thunderstorms
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset
15 minutes ago, Lakigigar said:

why is it so important to have spotless days?

Low solar cycles have strong correlation to blocking patterns in the Northern Hemisphere  which if set up in the correct place can lead to cold winters.

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Posted
  • Location: West-Belgium
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms and winter weather
  • Location: West-Belgium

Still i don't get it. What's the difference between 180 spotless days and 200 spotless days? And doesn't amount of sunspots also matter. What's that sunspot that stayed there during half of august going to change? I know there is a correlation, but it's predictable when a sun cycle will end and when not... so i could predict a long time beforehand that this year, 2019 and 2020 will have low solar activity, and that the winters of '18-'19, '19-20, '20-'21 and possibly '21-'22 have potential. I think because of eQBO the winters of '18-'19 and '20-'21 have most potential to be cold.

Edited by Lakigigar
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Posted
  • Location: Pemberton, Wigan, 54 M ASL. 53.53,-2.67
  • Weather Preferences: Winter - snow, Irish sea convection. Summer - thunderstorms, hot sunny days
  • Location: Pemberton, Wigan, 54 M ASL. 53.53,-2.67
4 hours ago, Lakigigar said:

Still i don't get it. What's the difference between 180 spotless days and 200 spotless days? And doesn't amount of sunspots also matter. What's that sunspot that stayed there during half of august going to change? I know there is a correlation, but it's predictable when a sun cycle will end and when not... so i could predict a long time beforehand that this year, 2019 and 2020 will have low solar activity, and that the winters of '18-'19, '19-20, '20-'21 and possibly '21-'22 have potential. I think because of eQBO the winters of '18-'19 and '20-'21 have most potential to be cold.r

20 spotless days. 

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Posted
  • Location: West-Belgium
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms and winter weather
  • Location: West-Belgium

What do those 20 spotless days change about the upcoming winter???

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Posted
  • Location: Pemberton, Wigan, 54 M ASL. 53.53,-2.67
  • Weather Preferences: Winter - snow, Irish sea convection. Summer - thunderstorms, hot sunny days
  • Location: Pemberton, Wigan, 54 M ASL. 53.53,-2.67
8 minutes ago, Lakigigar said:

What do those 20 spotless days change about the upcoming winter???

 Nothing quantifiable. It is a bit frustrating as it’s all likelihood based and so nothing  certain will change with an extra 20 days. 

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
1 hour ago, Lakigigar said:

What do those 20 spotless days change about the upcoming winter???

That there'll be even more ramping than usual come Christmas!:santa-emoji:

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
1 hour ago, Lakigigar said:

What do those 20 spotless days change about the upcoming winter???

Individually nothing but statistically the deeper we go, the better the CET may look. 

If we look at the top 20 spotless years for example then sub 3.6, 3.4, 3.4 has a 55%, 40% and 30% chance in terms of each winter month. 

If we hit top 10 spotless years then that becomes 50%, 50%, 40%. 

..

This year is a top 20 year, 2019 and 2020 probably being top 10.

..

Plus its interesting to monitor. 

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
Just now, Ed Stone said:

That there'll be even more ramping than usual come Christmas!:santa-emoji:

This year we can claim statistics Ed. 55% chance that we get a December of 3.6C or colder.

 

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