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1 hour ago, Yarmy said:

It's probably caused by the large (but spotless) plage still transiting the visible disk:

latest_1024_HMIBC.jpg

 

It's the green and yellow region on the right hand side of the image. Once that region rotates off, the flux should drop unless of course a new active region pops up elsewhere.

Fingers crossed Yarmy

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Just a few pics from early this morning at West Sands, St. Andrews  First one was 100iso eq @ f1.8 and 10 sec exposure, strong moonlight about midnight with the faintest of hint of an aurora.

From Salon on the Isle Of Rum & The Isle Of Lewis tonight. Credit; Martin Keivers and Emma Mitchell.  

More shots here from Scotland last night. Fingers crossed again tonight as there is another predicted Kp7 ☺

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11 hours ago, Weather-history said:

Given figures from 2006 and 2007 now

Spotless Days
Current Stretch: 22 days 
2018 total: 109 days (55%)
2017 total: 104 days (28%)
2016 total: 32 days (9%) 
2015 total: 0 days (0%) 
2014 total: 1 day (<1%)
2013 total: 0 days (0%)
2012 total: 0 days (0%)
2011 total: 2 days (<1%)
2010 total: 51 days (14%)
2009 total: 260 days (71%)
2008 total: 268 days (73%) 
2007 total: 152 days (42%)
2006 total: 70 days (19%) 

Running above 07 in percentage, we stand a good chance of breaching the top 20 spotless years. 

 

Edited by summer blizzard
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Daily Sun: 20 July 2018

Sunspot number: 0

Current Stretch: 23 days
2018 total: 110 days (55%)

The Radio Sun
10.7 cm flux: 71 solar flare units

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33 minutes ago, SteveB said:

Looks like Spaceweather have counted the spot, although to my eyes it looks like it gone again this morning.

Yes, this wonderful stretch is over. Ironically the solar flux is lower today than it has been for a while.

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Back to spotless again (was there really a spot in the first place)

 

112 for 2018, 55%

Solar flux 68 (that should  please Karyo)

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SteveB it is good news to see that Solar flux has lowered and got back to it's lower rate of 68, may this trend continue lowering.

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1 hour ago, SteveB said:

Back to spotless again (was there really a spot in the first place)

 

112 for 2018, 55%

Solar flux 68 (that should  please Karyo)

That's good news. As you say though, was that sunspot worth counting?

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Blank days really seem to be ramping up now   could we hit the 200 mark?.     also what impact will it have with the expected upcoming Positive NAO    Time will tell.

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1 hour ago, Lakigigar said:

Is solar cycle 25 going to be a very weak one?

Consensus forecasts at the moment suggest that our minima will be longer and deeper than the last (the last produced the 4th, 5th and 20th most spotless years on record) but that the peak will be just a little below the last (though still well down on normal cycles).

However as alluded to earlier, there are a number of forecast methods. 

(If the theory of this Gleisenburg minimum is correct then solar cycle 26 may be a near failure). 

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49 minutes ago, karyo said:

Nice drop for the solar flux. ? Is this a new low for this year?

Adjusted flux is 67.9 because we've just passed aphelion. It's been lower than that on a few days this year, but not many.

There is a remnant of a decaying active region that will rotate off the west limb in the next couple of days, so here's a prediction: 65/66 adjusted flux (observed flux 63/64) by Sunday/Monday. ☀️

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Daily Sun: 27 July 2018

Sunspot number: 0

Current Stretch: 5 days
2018 total: 116 days (56%)

The Radio Sun
10.7 cm flux: 66 sfu

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Daily Sun: 28 July 2018

hmi200.gif

Sunspot number: 0

Current Stretch: 6 days
2018 total: 117 days (56%)

The Radio Sun
10.7 cm flux: 67 sfu

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