Jump to content
Holidays
Local
Radar
Snow?
shuggee

Solar and Aurora Activity Chat

Recommended Posts

7 minutes ago, SteveB said:

There's plenty of material on the internet linking cold UK winters to solar minimums.

Have a little read, then you might understand why us snow starved weather enthusiasts are so interested in solar minimum & spotless days

That's true enough - I've been reading about it (not always on the Internet, obviously) since the 1970s - but I remain to be convinced; the world has moved on since the 17th Century, so it's like comparing apples to bananas, IMO?

But, anywho, keep the records coming?:good:

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, Ed Stone said:

And that would mean what exactly? I'm not meaning to sound like a complete irse, but what's so special about 150 days' Solar spotlessness?:cc_confused:

If we breach 150 then we probably enter the top 25 list. About 160 beats 2007. 

This solar minimum should be expected to exceed 08/09. The next solar minimum around 2030 should after a more or less failed cycle reach a comfortable number 1 spot. 

SC25_year.png

Looking at the data though (lets go for top ten years to save time we get the following winter data)..

50% of the following Decembers were <3.5C

50% of the following January's were <3C (not a single January was warmer than 4.7C)

40% of the following February's were <3.1C 

In December and Feb we see only 20% recording +1C departures albeit when they go warm, they tend to go very warm (all 4 warm months were in the 6.7-7.1 range).

...........

So a clear signal for a winter no worse than average, if not quite cold. 

*Worth checking out 1878-1879, what a stonker. 

 

 

  • Like 4

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
9 minutes ago, summer blizzard said:

If we breach 150 then we probably enter the top 25 list. About 160 beats 2007. 

This solar minimum should be expected to exceed 08/09. The next solar minimum around 2030 should after a more or less failed cycle reach a comfortable number 1 spot. 

SC25_year.png

Looking at the data though (lets go for top ten years to save time we get the following winter data)..

50% of the following Decembers were <3.5C

50% of the following January's were <3C (not a single January was warmer than 4.7C)

40% of the following February's were <3.1C 

In December and Feb we see only 20% recording +1C departures albeit when they go warm, they tend to go very warm (all 4 warm months were in the 6.7-7.1 range).

...........

So a clear signal for a winter no worse than average, if not quite cold. 

*Worth checking out 1878-1879, what a stonker. 

 

 

Good points, SB. I'm not suggesting that Solar flux has no effect on our climate (that would, IMO, be a rather daft stance to take!) but, rather, that the other climatic thingamabobs that are currently going-on will swamp any Solar affects...and that's a question not a statement of fact.🌡️

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

16 day's blank, 103 for 2018, 53%

Solar flux 72 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

We are one day short of achieving last year's annual total of sunspotless days.

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

17 day's spotless, 104th spotless day for 2018, equal with 2017.

Solar flux 71

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, SteveB said:

17 day's spotless, 104th spotless day for 2018, equal with 2017.

Solar flux 71

Yes, come on England! Oups, sorry I got carried away...😊

  • Like 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Daily Sun: 15 July 2018

Sunspot number: 0

Current Stretch: 18 days
2018 total: 105 days (54%)

The Radio Sun
10.7 cm flux: 72 sfu

 

 

 

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

It looks like spaceweather has taken the day off.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Spaceweather has updated their sun spotless count.

Daily Sun: 16 July 2018

Sunspot number: 0

Current Stretch: 19 days
2018 total: 106 days (54%)

The Radio Sun
10.7 cm flux: 72 sfu

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

We have reached the landmark spotless stretch of 20 days! 😍

 

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Spaceweather has this article on their site 

AMOST THREE WEEKS WITHOUT SUNSPOTS: The sun is without spots for the 20th straight day. To find an equal stretch of blank suns, you have to go all the way back to September of 2009 when the sun was emerging from the deepest solar minimum in a century. The current stretch of spotlessness is a sign that the sun is entering another solar minimum, possibly as deep as the last one

http://www.spaceweather.com/

I think that puts into perspective some of the over reacting posts a few weeks ago of how we are struggling to get long runs of spotlessness

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

20 day's blank, 107 for 2018, 54%

Solar flux 72 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Although scientists are getting pretty good at forecasting solar maximum, i do wonder how easy it is to forecast the minimum and how deep it will get.

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
31 minutes ago, summer blizzard said:

Although scientists are getting pretty good at forecasting solar maximum, i do wonder how easy it is to forecast the minimum and how deep it will get.

They were way out with the last maximum, suggesting it was suppose to one of the most active on record. Infact, they were in denial about the depth of the last minimum, saying there was nothing unusual about it when it was become clearer that it was.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
spacer.gif

THREE WEEKS WITHOUT SUNSPOTS: As July 17th comes to a close, the sun has been blank for 21 straight days--a remarkable 3 weeks without sunspots. To find an equal stretch of spotless suns in the historical record, you have to go back to July-August 2009 when the sun was emerging from a century-class solar minimum. We are now entering a new solar minimum, possibly as deep as the last one.

http://www.spaceweather.com

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

21 day's blank, 108 for 2018, 55%

Solar flux 72

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
19 hours ago, Weather-history said:

They were way out with the last maximum, suggesting it was suppose to one of the most active on record. Infact, they were in denial about the depth of the last minimum, saying there was nothing unusual about it when it was become clearer that it was.

I thought there were two methods, one of which did call for a inactive solar maximum relative to the norm although i am aware that they completely misjudged the last minimum in constantly thinking it was over before it was not. 

At any rate if this next solar cycle is more or less failed as expected then this minimum should be pretty bad.

Apparently solar cycle 24 was one of the six weakest on record only beaten by the Dalton minimum (which we should exceed the next 2-3 times as we are expected to have a double peaked Maunder like) and the closest comparisons are supposed to be solar cycles 12, 14 and 16 with current activity for the year comparable to 2007 (so still a year or two away from true minimum probably).

1888/1889

1911/1912

1931/1932

Essentially solar cycle 14 ended breaking records (for spotless years it holds the number 1, 8 and 15 positions.

Solar cycle 12 holds the 14th, 18th and 25 positions (if we only match 2007 for three years then we get close to matching - 07 was 20th).

Solar cycle 16 holds the 10th and 23rd positions. 

 

 

  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 12/07/2018 at 10:50, Ed Stone said:

Why?

Apart from being suspected of causing the PFJ to buckle, what's it supposed to do? The World's getting warmer as Solar activity is decreasing...FACT!

And, no, I am not suggesting - for a minute - that the vast bulk of Earth's energy does not from the sun...Just that its day-to-day effects are not what they're (by some) made out to be...:D

For instance - where the flock is Little Ice-Age 2?

I’m not so sure I believe the fact that this planet is getting any warmer. We’ve seen many warm periods and cold periods over the centuries if the records are to be believed. The weather will always cough up some extremes every now and then. Global warming (or should I say climate change) is still not proven and remains a theory. “Global dimming” has been suggested in the past to possibly be counteracting the “greenhouse gas effect”. There’s theories also suggesting that melting ice caps and more open water at the pole could help build more northern blocking, putting us into the freezer like back in February/March. What is a fact, is that where one place sees one extreme, another place further down the line usually sees another extreme at the opposite end of the spectrum. The weather as yourself and many others on here probably know is always attempting to create an equilibrium, with some amazing events and extremes in the process. 

Edited by East_England_Stormchaser91
  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, summer blizzard said:

I thought there were two methods, one of which did call for a inactive solar maximum relative to the norm although i am aware that they completely misjudged the last minimum in constantly thinking it was over before it was not. 

At any rate if this next solar cycle is more or less failed as expected then this minimum should be pretty bad.

Apparently solar cycle 24 was one of the six weakest on record only beaten by the Dalton minimum (which we should exceed the next 2-3 times as we are expected to have a double peaked Maunder like) and the closest comparisons are supposed to be solar cycles 12, 14 and 16 with current activity for the year comparable to 2007 (so still a year or two away from true minimum probably).

1888/1889

1911/1912

1931/1932

Essentially solar cycle 14 ended breaking records (for spotless years it holds the number 1, 8 and 15 positions.

Solar cycle 12 holds the 14th, 18th and 25 positions (if we only match 2007 for three years then we get close to matching - 07 was 20th).

Solar cycle 16 holds the 10th and 23rd positions. 

 

 

 

Dozens, in fact, with a large spread of forecasts. The average was 107 (more than 1 std dev above the actual max) and the various forecasts were more or less normally distributed about it which is roughly what you'd get if you simply asked a bunch of people to pick a number between 50 and 180. 🙂

http://users.telenet.be/j.janssens/SC24.html

Having said that, those forecasts that employed physical methods performed best so there is some evidence we are getting better at it:

SC24chart.png

 

The outlying physical forecast (the green slice on the right hand bar) was from Dikpati et al. which ironically is the forecast which gained the most publicity at the time. They went for a whopper: one of the largest maximums in a century.

https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1029/2005GL025221

Back to the drawing board.

  • Like 3
  • Thanks 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

22 days blank, 109 for 2018, 55%

Solar flux 71

We have now reached the top 25 spotless periods!

The only downside is that the solar flux remains stubbornly above 70.

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I hope the solar flux number will be starting to going down soon.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Given figures from 2006 and 2007 now

Spotless Days
Current Stretch: 22 days 
2018 total: 109 days (55%)
2017 total: 104 days (28%)
2016 total: 32 days (9%) 
2015 total: 0 days (0%) 
2014 total: 1 day (<1%)
2013 total: 0 days (0%)
2012 total: 0 days (0%)
2011 total: 2 days (<1%)
2010 total: 51 days (14%)
2009 total: 260 days (71%)
2008 total: 268 days (73%) 
2007 total: 152 days (42%)
2006 total: 70 days (19%) 

  • Like 1
  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Katrine Basso said:

I hope the solar flux number will be starting to going down soon.

Yes, it is strange that it remains above 70 despite the long stretch of blank days. We had shorter spotless periods in this cycle where the flux was below 70.

  • Like 1
  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
14 minutes ago, karyo said:

Yes, it is strange that it remains above 70 despite the long stretch of blank days. We had shorter spotless periods in this cycle where the flux was below 70.

It's probably caused by the large (but spotless) plage still transiting the visible disk:

latest_1024_HMIBC.jpg

 

It's the green and yellow region on the right hand side of the image. Once that region rotates off, the flux should drop unless of course a new active region pops up elsewhere.

  • Like 2
  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now

×
×
  • Create New...