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Posted
  • Location: just behind Epsom Racecourse and the center of York
  • Location: just behind Epsom Racecourse and the center of York
    2 hours ago, SteveB said:

    Totally agree, hoping the global temp increases we've seen over the last 40+ years can be halted or even reversed over the next 10-15yrs helped of course by humans repairing some of the damage we have made by cleaner greener energy.

    I don't believe we are entering a grand minimum such as the 'Maunder minimum' but we are entering a significant minimum which is likely to extend to until at least 2050. Given that the last few cycles where very active and greater than that seen in recorded time its is no wonder global temps reached the levels they have. I am convinced we will see global temps start to fall back which will be claimed as man's efforts reducing CO2 etc and not the sun's effects. Sunspot activity will be a lot lower than 2009 over the next 2/3 years. Seasons will become more defined but overall temps will be reduced. 

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    Posted
  • Location: London (currently)
  • Location: London (currently)

    I don't think global temperatures will fall. The last minimum didn't lead to a reduction in temperatures and the Arctic ice continued to drop, maybe a reduction of warm records but not a drop.

    I do expect though better winters with more northern blocking as it happened wit the last minimum.

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    Posted
  • Location: South Ockendon, Thurrock, SW Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Severe frosts, Heavy snowfall, Thunder and lightning, Stormy weather
  • Location: South Ockendon, Thurrock, SW Essex

    The first spotless day of 2018

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    Posted
  • Location: South Ockendon, Thurrock, SW Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Severe frosts, Heavy snowfall, Thunder and lightning, Stormy weather
  • Location: South Ockendon, Thurrock, SW Essex

    Second spotless day, I hope this will be the start of a run of spotless days and hopefully it will more than double what we had last year.

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    Posted
  • Location: Near King's Lynn 13.68m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Hoar Frost, Snow, Misty Autumn mornings
  • Location: Near King's Lynn 13.68m ASL
    1 hour ago, Katrine Basso said:

    Second spotless day, I hope this will be the start of a run of spotless days and hopefully it will more than double what we had last year.

    Maybe a wee bit premature as it is still the 2nd of Jan and an active area has just rotated onto the eastern limb. It is currently a spotless page, however.

    Generally, I would recommend a bit of caution before extrapolating the current spotless periods into a long, deep minimum.

    SC25_evol0.png

    The above chart does not yet include the Oct/Nov/Dec numbers, but it does demonstrate that you can't really determine the length or depth of a solar minimum from the current spotless day count. In fact, it shows that shorter cycle minimums ramp up the spotless day count more rapidly.

    Edited by Yarmy
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    Posted
  • Location: Near King's Lynn 13.68m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Hoar Frost, Snow, Misty Autumn mornings
  • Location: Near King's Lynn 13.68m ASL

    Spotless *plage*, not page. :D

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    Posted
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Hot sunny , cold and snowy, thunderstorms
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset

    5 day's blank in a row, 2 day's blank for 2018 100%

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    Posted
  • Location: Galway
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and cold
  • Location: Galway
    9 hours ago, Katrine Basso said:

    Second spotless day, I hope this will be the start of a run of spotless days and hopefully it will more than double what we had last year.

    according to NASA, October 2018 to August 2019 there will be no sunspots, thats a long run and only getting started...did you know 2009 had 260 sun spotless days, no wonder we had such a cold winter...

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    Posted
  • Location: Galway
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and cold
  • Location: Galway
    9 hours ago, Katrine Basso said:

    Second spotless day, I hope this will be the start of a run of spotless days and hopefully it will more than double what we had last year.

    according to NASA, October 2018 to August 2019 there will be no sunspots, thats a long run and only getting started...did you know 2009 had 260 sun spotless days, no wonder we had such a cold winter...

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    Posted
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Hot sunny , cold and snowy, thunderstorms
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset

    6 spotless day's, 3 for 2018 100%

    Solar flux 70

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    Posted
  • Location: Near King's Lynn 13.68m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Hoar Frost, Snow, Misty Autumn mornings
  • Location: Near King's Lynn 13.68m ASL
    13 hours ago, Windchime72 said:

    according to NASA, October 2018 to August 2019 there will be no sunspots, thats a long run and only getting started...did you know 2009 had 260 sun spotless days, no wonder we had such a cold winter...

    Excuse my scepticism, but have you got a link for this?

    The longest unbroken spotless period on record (starting 1818) is 92 days (8th April 1913 to 8th July 1913). There was probably a 140 day run between the 24th October 1822 to 12th March 1823, but there were no observations made on the 29th December in that period. Of course there were undoubtedly longer periods during the Maunder Minimum.

    http://sidc.oma.be/silso/spotless

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Tornado Alley, west London
  • Location: Tornado Alley, west London

    According to Spaceweather.com, 2009 did indeed have 260 days spotless, but that wasn't in an unbroken run.

    I do, however, agree with Yarmy and have to ask you to provide a link for your claim of NASA's October 2018-Aug 2019 forecast.

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    Posted
  • Location: Shrewsbury,Shropshire
  • Location: Shrewsbury,Shropshire

    What's up with Spaceweather? They are showing spotless again today but there seems to be a spot on the sun?! This has happened a couple of times in the last few times now. Technical issues?

    2018-01-04_09-04-08.jpg

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    Posted
  • Location: Near King's Lynn 13.68m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Hoar Frost, Snow, Misty Autumn mornings
  • Location: Near King's Lynn 13.68m ASL
    Just now, drgl said:

    What's up with Spaceweather? They are showing spotless again today but there seems to be a spot on the sun?! This has happened a couple of times in the last few times now. Technical issues?

    2018-01-04_09-04-08.jpg

    Yes, there can hardly have been 4 spotless days in 2018 when the 4th of Jan has only just started.

    Use the International Sunspot Number here:

    http://sidc.oma.be/silso/

    It updates during the day as the observations come in.

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Hot sunny , cold and snowy, thunderstorms
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset

    A spot - run ends.....

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    Posted
  • Location: Near King's Lynn 13.68m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Hoar Frost, Snow, Misty Autumn mornings
  • Location: Near King's Lynn 13.68m ASL

    The recent sunspot 2693 in the northern hemisphere was quite high latitude as is the current sunspot 2694 in the southern hemisphere. This can be indicative of the start of the next cycle, however I've checked the magnetic polarity of both spots and they appear to belong to SC24. (You can get reversed polarity spots within a cycle, but they are rare)

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    Posted
  • Location: South Ockendon, Thurrock, SW Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Severe frosts, Heavy snowfall, Thunder and lightning, Stormy weather
  • Location: South Ockendon, Thurrock, SW Essex

    SpaceWeather has not updated since yesterday.

    Daily Sun: 12 Jan 18 New sunspot AR2695 poses no threat for solar flares. Credit: SDO/HMI

    hmi200.gif

     

     

     

    Solarham.net

    The Sun Today : Updated January 13, 2018

    jan13_2018_disk.jpg
    [Sunspots] [Rot-M]
    regions2.jpg

     

    Edited by Katrine Basso
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    Posted
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Hot sunny , cold and snowy, thunderstorms
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset

    Spotless, 1 day, 5 for 2018

    Solarflux 69

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    Posted
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Hot sunny , cold and snowy, thunderstorms
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset

    2 day's blank, 6 for 2018

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    Posted
  • Location: London (currently)
  • Location: London (currently)
    3 hours ago, SteveB said:

    2 day's blank, 6 for 2018

    Good to see the blank days return. Probably too late now to significantly benefit this winter but maybe better luck next year.

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    Posted
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Hot sunny , cold and snowy, thunderstorms
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset
    3 hours ago, karyo said:

    Good to see the blank days return. Probably too late now to significantly benefit this winter but maybe better luck next year.

    Yeah I think this winter is done with, probably go and get a cold March or April, but I believe the next couple of winters have a real chance of producing something notable cold wise!

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    Posted
  • Location: South Ockendon, Thurrock, SW Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Severe frosts, Heavy snowfall, Thunder and lightning, Stormy weather
  • Location: South Ockendon, Thurrock, SW Essex

    Current Stretch: 3 days
    2018 total: 7 days (47%)

    Solar winds are flowing from a coronal hole .  The solar winds should reach Earth on January 19th and January 20th.  These winds will be spark  G1 class geomagnetic storms.

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